We’re down to the final three MLB Series Previews of the season. It’s at a point now where I can’t simply look at the records of the two clubs playing and say to myself — Aha. That’s a no-brainer top-five series. Nope, if it was that easy, then Boston at Tampa Bay this weekend would easily get a top-five nod given their combined records. I’m not even putting that series on the big list. Why?
As I said in Monday’s MLB Series Preview, given that the Red Sox are safely ahead for the second AL wild card, and too far back of New York to claim the No. 4 seed, they were the only playoff contender heading into this week that had very little to play for given their No. 5 seed was all but guaranteed. Since Monday, a couple of other American League clubs have joined the Sox in this conversation, and one of them is Tampa Bay.
The Rays are five games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East with 10 contests remaining. They own the tiebreaker with New York, and it would take a monumental collapse by the AL East leaders to blow their division lead. And when it comes to the race for the overall No. 1 seed in the American League, the Rays are 15 ½ games ahead of the next closest division leader, the Chicago White Sox.
For as good as it looks on paper, the Red Sox-Rays series has very little relevance to the playoff races, and at this point, it’s mostly about staying healthy for both squads. Tampa Bay will be the AL’s No. 1 seed, and Boston will be No. 5. You heard it here first. Book it.
Given my criteria for the top five this weekend, it’s kind of strange to think the No. 1 slot will involve two losing clubs right in the thick of American League playoff races. Here we go…
No. 1: Blue Jays (76-77) at Rangers (76-77)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The first two franchises currently out of the AL wild card race begin a massive three-game series at Globe Life Field this weekend. Both clubs trail Cleveland by two games for the final AL wild card slot.
Here’s some good news. If either Toronto or Texas ties Cleveland for the final wild card position, they own the tiebreaker against the current leader. Both clubs were 4-2 against the Guardians this season. After this pivotal series, neither team has a difficult final week on paper. Toronto travels to Baltimore for three contests (we’ll get to the O’s later) and hosts the 71-82 Reds at home to end the year. Texas hosts the 69-84 Mets before taking on the 71-82 Twins at Target Field next weekend.
The bad news for Texas is that they trail Houston by one game in the AL West, and lost the season series to the ‘Stros, 9-4. If they tie at season’s end, Houston is your division winner and all the Rangers could hope for is the final AL wild card. The bad news for Toronto is that they have no alternate way into the postseason. They can’t win the AL East, so it’s about the final wild card and nothing else. Even worse for Toronto, if they tie Texas for the final AL wild card spot with no other clubs involved, the Rangers would advance because they’ve already won the season series after going 4-0 so far in their meetings.
I like what Steve Drumwright wrote in his lead today on MLB News & Moments about the league no longer having a Game 163. I agree fully with what he said about needing that game back, because it made the final day of the regular season all the more exciting. Since MLB took that possible Monday Game 163 away from us following the 2022 season, we’ve had three ties in the standings that pre-2022 would have been settled on the field by way of a tiebreaker. That was the beauty of having that Monday open, and what made MLB unique from the other three major American sports at the time. Now it’s settled on paper. I don’t like it at all, and as Steve said earlier today, “Settle it on the field. Team vs. team. Not some willy-nilly tiebreaker…Pure drama (and more TV time, too).” It brings added drama and excitement for players and fans. Gosh, I hope it comes back one day, because we could see another postseason tie settled off the field for the third straight season.
Friday’s opener will pair Toronto’s Dylan Cease (28 GS, 11-5, 2.38 ERA) and Texas right-hander Kumar Rocker (28 G, 25 GS, 5-11, 4.54 ERA). Keep an eye on Cease’s race with Cleveland’s Gavin Williams for the AL strikeout lead. Cease leads Williams by one K, 236-235. Another note about this matchup: Cease is 8-1 on the road with a 1.89 ERA, while Rocker has struggled mightily at home, going 3-10 with a 5.02 ERA.
No. 2: Atlanta (89-64) at Astros (77-76)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I mentioned earlier that some clubs likely know where they’ll be seeded come playoff time. Like Tampa Bay and Boston in the American League, Atlanta is in a similar spot. Entering this weekend, Georgia’s squad has a comfortable four-game advantage over Philadelphia in the NL East with the tiebreaker in their favor after winning the season series, 9-4. Up until about a week ago, they were right in the thick of the race for not only the NL’s best record, but MLB’s as well. However, after a sluggish 7-8 start to September, the Brewers and Dodgers (combined 21-10 record this month) have put some distance between themselves and Atlanta for the league’s top two seeds and a bye to the NLDS.
Milwaukee has a six-game advantage over the NL East leader, while Los Angeles is ahead by four games. There’s still plenty to be determined between the Brew Crew and Blue Crew as far as the battle for the No. 1 seed, but when it comes to Atlanta’s chances, I think their manager Walt Weiss made it clear that his team isn’t shooting for the Dodgers with only nine games remaining, even though they own the tiebreaker. Weiss bumped Chris Sale’s Friday start to next week, so that it aligns with Game 1 of the NLWC the following Tuesday. In other words, if Atlanta was really going for that top-two position, I don’t think Weiss would skip Sale and give him only one start over the next 10 days. Knowing Weiss’s plan, all that’s left for Atlanta to do over the next week-plus is to officially clinch the NL East. Their magic number is at five, and they could potentially seal the division by the end of this weekend.
Houston is coming off a series win at home over Kansas City, and after Yordan Alvarez clocked his 40th homer in Thursday’s 6-2 victory, his Triple Crown hopes are still alive, although he has a lot of work to do. Alvarez missed some time last weekend against the Rays (ankle), and now trails Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero by one long ball and is three ribbies behind Baltimore’s Pete Alonso for the American League lead. As far as the batting title, Alvarez and Rays’ speedster Chandler Simpson enter Friday tied with a .311 BA.
More importantly than Alvarez’s Triple Crown quest is that Houston holds a one-game lead over Texas in the AL West, and as mentioned earlier, owns the tiebreaker over their division rivals. Following this series, the Astros go on the road for their final six regular season contests to face the Mariners and A’s.
Expected pitching matchups
Friday: ATL – Tyler Mahle (25 GS, 6-10, 3.91 ERA) versus HOU – Peter Lambert (26 GS, 8-9, 3.71 ERA)
Saturday: ATL – Grant Holmes (29 G, 28 GS, 9-5, 3.49 ERA) versus HOU – Hayden Wesneski (9 GS, 5-2, 3.70 ERA)
Sunday: ATL – Martín Pérez (29 G, 25 GS, 9-9, 3.07 ERA) versus HOU – Hunter Brown (18 GS, 6-3, 3.43 ERA)
No. 3: Brewers (95-58) at Orioles (75-78)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
It won’t be easy, but it is possible for Baltimore to snag the final AL wild card slot at three games back of Cleveland with two other squads wedged in between (mentioned in No. 1). The obvious concern with the O’s is that despite sweeping the last-place Mets on the road this week, they have, shall we say, a not-so-easy upcoming schedule. Following this series with MLB’s top club, they host the wild-card hopeful Blue Jays and end the season with a road series against the Yankees. Baltimore isn’t very good at Camden Yards, and under normal circumstances, I’d see this upcoming six-game homestand as a big-time opportunity to gain ground in the playoff hunt. However, their 36-39 home record is the worst of every current playoff team and contender within four games of the postseason. Of the 16 clubs that fit this category, only Baltimore and Cleveland have a losing record at home.
I’m keeping my eyes on Alonso, who, after bringing his former fan base to their feet with multiple home runs (including his 300th career HR) this week at Citi Field, is on my dark horse MVP list. Look, he won’t win it. It won’t even be close. He could go off over the final nine games of the regular season and lead Baltimore into the postseason, and at best, he would finish in the top five for the American League Most Valuable Player. But, regardless, I love that Alonso is carrying the offensive load in the second half and, for me, is the definition of what an MVP candidate should be. Take his .292/.386/.552 second-half slash line off this roster, and where would the O’s be right now? Probably eliminated from playoff contention. Remember, this is a fairly weak offensive team that ranks 10th in the Junior Circuit in OPS (.711), and in the bottom third in many other offensive categories. If not for Alonso’s fifth-ranked .864 OPS, this squad would be done. Overall, he is the key to this team and probably this series. Any chance Baltimore has of playing October baseball rests with Alonso’s bat beginning this weekend.
Milwaukee has one thing remaining on its to-do list, and it might not come until next weekend. The Brewers have a two-game lead on the Dodgers for the NL’s best record. If they do make it to the Fall Classic, they could face the Rays, who are only 1 ½ games behind Milwaukee for the top record in MLB. Last season, it didn’t matter one bit that the Brew Crew had home advantage in the NLCS after being swept by the eventual World Series champs, but there’s no doubt that given their 52-26 record at American Family Field, they’d like to begin every series this October in front of their fans. It’s going to be very interesting to see how the three contenders for MLB’s best record manage their rosters over the next 10 days. Will Milwaukee and Los Angeles fight tooth and nail for the top seed, or are they both content with taking a top-two spot regardless, knowing they won’t have to play in the NLWC?
Friday’s opener will see Milwaukee’s veteran Dustin May (28 GS, 7-9, 4.49 ERA) battle Baltimore’s southpaw Cade Povich (7 G, 6 GS, 2-1, 4.05 ERA)
No. 4: Yankees (88-64) at Diamondbacks (80-73)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I’ve talked ad nauseam today about teams knowing where they will be seeded come playoff time. I believe one of those franchises is the Yankees, who, as already mentioned, are five games back of Tampa Bay in the AL East and well ahead of Boston for the top AL WC by 5 ½ games. However, there’s always that chance that some member of the Bronx Bombers reads an article like this one and sees that everyone is counting them out of the division race with 10 games remaining on the schedule. The club member might very well print off this story, post it in the clubhouse, and say something like, “Boys, let’s prove this Justin Alston character wrong. We still have a shot at winning this division.” And the team rallies, wins nine of their last 10 contests, including a four-game sweep of Tampa Bay next week at home (Sept. 22 – 24), and ultimately claims the AL East and, with it, home-field advantage through the American League playoffs. Wouldn’t that be something?
I do hope someone on the Yankees reads this article and uses it as inspiration, but, folks, it’s not likely to happen. New York is right where they’ve been for the majority of this season…sitting in second place in the AL East with the top wild card spot in hand. Let’s just get right to the Red Sox-Yankees ALWC rematch. There is nothing else left except for the Yankees to make sure that their three-time MVP, Aaron Judge, and a couple of other banged-up players are ready to go for Game 1 of that series on September 29.
Then we have the Diamondbacks. Here’s a club that went from a half-game ahead of San Diego for the NL’s final wild card slot on August 31 (the date second baseman Ketel Marte returned to the lineup after a two-week absence due to in-house issues) to now four games behind the Padres for the third NL WC entering Friday’s series with New York. Arizona has gone 7-8 since Marte’s return, and because San Diego has been as hot as anyone this month, going an MLB-best 11-4 in September, the Snakes are now in a situation where a series loss this weekend pretty much ends any hopes they had of making the postseason for the first time since 2023. The only possible good news for Arizona is their upcoming schedule, but I’m not even sure that’s the case, considering their last six games of the campaign are on the road, where they are 37-38 this season. However, they will play three games at Coors Field against the worst club in MLB before their final series next weekend against the team they are chasing for that third wild card position. If Arizona is within three games of San Diego by this time next week, then they’ll have a chance to overtake the Friars and get into the playoff field. The D-backs could also catch Philadelphia or Chicago at five games back, but this weekend I’m focused on the club directly in front of them.
Friday’s series opener could be a good one as New York’s Gerrit Cole (20 GS, 8-9, 3.67 ERA) takes on Arizona’s top arm, Eduardo Rodriguez (30 GS, 15-6, 2.62 ERA).
No. 5: Tigers (72-81) at White Sox (78-75)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *White Sox won Thursday’s opener, 3-1.
Choosing the No. 5 ranked series recently hasn’t been easy. Like I said in the lead, if I was going strictly by the quality of teams playing without any thought of the playoff races, then a series like this one would be replaced by either Boston-Tampa Bay or Miami-San Diego. I had half a mind to put the Marlins and Padres in this spot given their records and San Diego’s battle for wild-card positioning. What stopped me from doing so is that the overall impact of this series on Chicago and the rest of the American League playoff field is far greater than it is for the Padres. If San Diego loses to Miami, it won’t change anything in the NL’s big picture. Arizona can’t catch the Friars this weekend regardless of results. However, if Detroit wins the next three games after dropping Thursday’s opener, Chicago could be outside the playoff picture on Monday. Even if Detroit wins two of the next three games, Chicago could be on the outside looking in.
The White Sox and Guardians are tied atop the AL Central, and Chicago has the tiebreaker after winning the season series, 7-6. Both division contenders are two games ahead of Toronto and Texas for the third AL wild card spot. Another reason I kept this series on the big list ahead of Miami-San Diego is that, despite the Marlins owning a better record than Detroit by four games, the Tigers are closer in the AL wild-card hunt at six games back, while the Fish are eight behind in the National League. Neither club has a realistic shot at the postseason, but if the Tigers do win the next three matches, with a little help from the A’s (three-game series at Cleveland), they could be within three or four games of the AL Central lead. The Tigers end their season with home sets against the Nationals and Pirates.
Chicago is 7-3 versus Detroit this season.
Missed the Top Five
Phillies (85-68) at Mets (69-84): Four games *Phillies won Thursday’s opener, 3-0.
Twins (71-82) at Angels (59-94): Four games *Angels won Thursday’s opener, 5-4.
Cubs (85-68) at Reds (71-82): Three games
Royals (67-86) at Pirates (76-77): Three games
A’s (61-92) at Guardians (78-75): Three games
Red Sox (83-70) at Rays (93-59): Three games
Mariners (71-82) at Rockies (56-97): Three games
Nationals (71-82) at Cardinals (75-78): Three games
Marlins (76-77) at Padres (84-69): Three games
Giants (64-89) at Dodgers (93-60): Three games
