A little good news and bad news to kick off the final two weeks of the regular season.
The good news: We have a huge AL Central series beginning Monday, when Chicago visits Cleveland for what will be their final regular-season meeting. No. 1 on this week’s top-five list was a no-brainer.
The bad news: Only one other series this week pairs teams with winning records, which makes creating a top-five list all the more difficult.
What you’ll see below is a strong top 2 followed by three other series involving clubs still technically in the playoff race, albeit two of them are on their last legs (See No. 4 and No. 5). It doesn’t make this week any less exciting than what we’re used to because, as we know, in the American League, only one of the seven teams within six games of the final wild card spot has a winning record (Cleveland Guardians). It’s possible one of the six squads trailing Cleveland takes that last wild card with a losing record.
In summary, this week’s top five has high quality at the top, followed by three series in which one current postseason club plays a franchise outside the playoff picture that desperately needs wins. Let’s get started.
No. 1: White Sox (76-73) at Guardians (76-74)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Chicago is not playing well. Their start to September is worrisome, especially when you consider that they’ve lost three of four series this month. Their rookie first baseman, Munetaka Murakami, is struggling mightily in the second half (40 G, .178/.316/.391 slash line) and over his last 16 contests dating back to the start of a series on August 28 in Minnesota, the 26-year-old has gone 7-for-56 at the dish with 29 strikeouts. Over that period, the Sox are 6-10 and enter this series with a half-game lead over Cleveland. Murakami’s batting .206 for the year, and if his struggles continue over the final two weeks of the regular season, he could end up below the Mendoza Line. That would be shocking, considering he was hitting over .240 on August 5 before his offensive downfall began.
Meanwhile, the Guardians aren’t playing great baseball either, but their 7-6 September record has kept them above water despite the continued struggles of their star third baseman José Ramírez. I’ll be honest, I never thought we’d see the day when the career .276 hitter, who has only ever batted under .250 one time in 13 seasons leading up to ’26 (2015: .219 BA over 97 games), hit this poorly over an entire campaign. Ramirez began this month with a pedestrian .244 batting average, but in 45 September at-bats, he’s only collected five knocks, and entering this series, he’s right at .230 on the year. I give Cleveland all the credit they deserve for hanging in the race despite Ramirez’s issues. Steven Kwan and rookie Travis Bazzana have vastly improved in the second half, and the pitching staff as a whole is one of the best in MLB. I’m always amazed by Cleveland’s bullpen consistency. They’ve ranked in the top 10 in reliever ERA in every season since 2021, and this year is no different (ranked sixth in MLB with a 3.61 reliever ERA).
The White Sox are 6-4 versus the Guardians up to this point. That is a huge factor to keep in mind this week, because Chicago only needs one victory over the next three days to clinch the season series, and with that, the tiebreaker if these clubs have identical records two weeks from now. One other interesting note about these AL Central contenders. The White Sox play much better at home than they do on the road (43-31 home record, 33-42 away record). However, Cleveland is better on the road than they are at home (36-39 home record, 40-35 away record). Something has to give in this series. One of these clubs will win it, and based on those splits, I have no idea how this is going to go. But it should be fun, and this is the must-watch series of the week for my money.
Expected pitching matchups for Monday and Tuesday. Chicago hasn’t officially announced their Wednesday starter as of this writing, but Cleveland is expected to go with Parker Messick (29 GS, 11-9, 2.51 ERA) in the series finale.
Monday: CHW – Sean Burke (29 G, 25 GS, 8-7, 3.58 ERA) versus CLE – Gavin Williams (29 GS, 13-7, 3.78 ERA)
Tuesday: CHW – Davis Martin (26 GS, 9-7, 4.05 ERA) versus CLE – Foster Griffin (29 GS, 15-5, 3.65 ERA)
No. 2: Atlanta (88-62) at Cubs (83-67)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
From a quality standpoint, this is the best series on paper this week. From an importance standpoint, it doesn’t rival No. 1 above. After Atlanta’s 2-1 series win over Philadelphia this past weekend, Georgia’s squad is in great shape going forward (a five-game lead over Philly in the NL East, with the tiebreaker on their side). All that’s left on Atlanta’s to-do list is to clinch their division and catch the Dodgers for the National League’s No. 2 seed. The Blue Crew has a 2 ½ game edge over the NL East leaders. I’m keeping the Brewers out of this conversation for now, given that they lead Atlanta by five games with 12 contests remaining for both clubs. I don’t see a No. 1 seed for Atlanta.
On the other side, the Cubbies won two of three contests versus Pittsburgh over the weekend to draw even with Philadelphia for the NL’s top wild card position. However, what’s getting a bit worrisome for both teams is that they now officially have company in the race for the No. 4 seed and home-field advantage in the NLWC. San Diego, which begins a four-game series on Monday against MLB’s worst team, the Colorado Rockies, has won seven straight contests to pull within 1 ½ games of Philadelphia and Chicago. Fortunately for the wild-card leaders, the Diamondbacks, currently the first team out of the postseason, lost their series versus Texas on Sunday and are four games behind for that top spot. The bottom line is that no NL wild-card contender is safe right now, which makes a series like this one all the more important for the Baby Bears.
Monday’s opener pairs Atlanta’s right-hander Reynaldo López (25 G, 12 GS, 4-4, 4.13 ERA) and Chicago’s southpaw David Peterson (29 G, 20 GS, 7-8, 5.28 ERA).
No. 3: Red Sox (82-68) at Rangers (74-76)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Here’s the beauty of being a member of the Red Sox franchise today. Of all current playoff contenders, they are the only one I believe has a completely stress-free final two weeks of the regular season. Think about this. In the American League, the other five current postseason squads are still playing for playoff positioning. The White Sox and Astros are in tight division fights. The AL East-leading Rays are in a fairly comfortable position at four games up on New York, but they still have work to do in order to finish the job and claim the league’s No. 1 seed.
Over on the National side, even the best team in MLB is trying to hold off the Dodgers for the league’s top record. At 2 ½ games ahead of Los Angeles, that race could come down to the final weekend. Yes, both the Brew Crew and Blue Crew are on the verge of clinching their respective divisions again, but home-field advantage is always something teams want come October. There’s some stress there for both clubs, as well as Atlanta, which, as already mentioned, is trying to catch Los Angeles for the No. 2 seed.
Understanding that Boston is 4 ½ games behind New York for the top AL WC spot (technically 5 ½ given that the Yankees own the tiebreaker), but comfortably ahead of Cleveland by six games for the No. 5 seed, I challenge anyone to give me a playoff contender with less to worry about over the next two weeks as far as postseason positioning is concerned. Boston is all but locked into that second AL wild card slot. I think they are the only team in baseball that knows exactly where they will be seeded when the playoffs begin on September 29.
Unfortunately for the Rangers, they are in a completely different situation than their upcoming opponent. They are not comfortably ahead of anyone in the playoff race, trailing Houston by one game in the AL West, and sitting two games back of Cleveland for the final AL wild card spot. Texas struggled against Houston, losing nine of 13 matchups this year, so they are technically two games back of the Astros given the tiebreaker situation. The good news for Texas is that they won the season series against both clubs they are trying to pass in the wild card race. The Rangers went 4-2 versus Cleveland, are currently 4-0 against Toronto, and have already clinched that season series, even with three more contests between the clubs coming this weekend at Globe Life Field. In a glass-half-full outlook, Texas is in great shape if they can catch both the Guardians and Jays.
No. 4: Brewers (93-57) at Pirates (75-75)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
In Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview, I said my gut feeling was that Pittsburgh needed to win its road series at Wrigley Field. They did not, and blame whoever you want for that result, but when I saw Don Kelly pull Paul Skenes from Saturday’s contest with a 3-2 lead after seven innings of two-run ball on only 82 pitches, I didn’t feel sorry for that club when Chicago scored twice in the eighth frame off reliever Gregory Soto, ultimately leading to a massive loss for the Buccos. Kelly’s reasoning was that Skenes hadn’t gone into the eighth inning since May. Absolute garbage, and that decision probably sealed Pittsburgh’s fate. How many more years is Skenes going to be babied by this franchise? He entered this season as arguably the best starting pitcher in the game. Why isn’t he pushed and used as an ace should be in the biggest moments?
Pittsburgh is still technically in the hunt at 6 ½ games back and begins a nine-game homestand on Tuesday before wrapping up the campaign with a road series at Detroit. The Pirates are 38-34 at PNC Park, and even though their five-series winning streak was snapped over the weekend, they are playing well and enter this three-game set with an 8-4 September record.
We’ve already discussed where the Brewers stand. They have one mission remaining, and that’s to claim MLB’s best record and, with it, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Milwaukee leads Chicago by 10 games in the NL Central, and their magic number is two. The Brewers are sending out a couple of their big arms in this series (Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson are expected to start on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively) with hopes of clinching their division and knocking a rival further out of the wild card picture. Pittsburgh is expected to counter with rookie right-hander Khristian Curtis (4 G, 1-0, 5.14 ERA) on Tuesday and Jared Jones on Wednesday (18 GS, 4-6, 4.10 ERA).
Not surprisingly, the Brewers have the best record within the division against NL Central opponents (30-16), but they’ve struggled against the Pirates, going 4-6 in their head-to-head matchups so far.
No. 5: Yankees (86-63) at Twins (70-79)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
I didn’t want to put this series in the top five. I won’t lie. My feeling is the Yankees are not going to catch Tampa Bay at four games back with 13 contests remaining, and they will not let the Red Sox overtake them for the American League’s No. 4 seed. I certainly don’t feel Minnesota has much of a chance to catch Cleveland for the final AL wild card at 5 ½ games behind with three other teams between them and the Guardians. The Twins have lost three consecutive series, all to AL Central clubs, and are 25-27 against division opponents this season. They don’t have much going in their favor right now except for, perhaps, their remaining schedule (3 vs. Yankees, 4 at Angels, 3 at Giants, 3 vs. Rangers).
The problem is, when I look at the 10 series that missed this week’s top five list, the only other one that involves two clubs within 5 ½ games of a postseason spot is the Tigers vs. Blue Jays three-game set. So, if any of you feel that series deserves a nod over this one, no argument from me. For now, I’m picking the Yankees-Twins only because New York is still trying to make a run at Tampa Bay in the AL East. If New York can gain some ground on the Rays this week (3 at Twins, 3 at Diamondbacks), they’ll be within striking distance of a division crown when they host Tampa Bay for four games beginning next Monday. The Rays host the A’s and Red Sox this week before their clash with the Bronx Bombers.
Minnesota won two of three contests in New York over July 4th weekend in their only other meeting this season.
Expected pitching matchups:
Monday: NYY – Will Warren (29 G, 27 GS, 10-6, 4.05 ERA) versus MIN- Dean Kremer (14 GS, 3-5, 5.65 ERA)
Tuesday: NYY – Max Fried (18 GS, 4-4, 2.73 ERA) versus MIN – Bailey Ober (22 GS, 7-5, 4.28 ERA)
Wednesday: NYY – Carlos Rodón (14 GS, 6-3, 2.94 ERA) versus MIN – Zebby Matthews (21 GS, 9-10, 4.98 ERA)
Missed the Top Five
Dodgers (90-59) at Reds (70-79): Four games
Tigers (70-79) at Blue Jays (75-75): Three games
Orioles (72-78) at Mets (69-80): Three games
Giants (62-88) at Cardinals (74-76): Three games
Padres (81-68) at Rockies (55-94): Four games
Mariners (70-80) at Angels (56-93): Three games
Marlins (74-76) at Diamondbacks (79-71): Three games
A’s (61-89) at Rays (90-59): Three games
Phillies (83-67) at Nationals (70-81): Two games
Royals (66-84) at Astros (75-75): Three games
