While watching rival teams battle head-to-head in any sport, do you ever have that gut feeling when you know which squad is ultimately going to win at the end? Usually, this feeling is based on recent history, and sometimes nothing more. This feeling I’m referring to hit me twice on Thursday. The first time came while watching the Guardians erase a 5-2 deficit against the White Sox with four unanswered runs, ending with Brayan Rocchio’s walk-off two-run homer in the ninth. The second occurrence came later, after I witnessed the Padres jump out to an early 6-0 lead against the NL West-leading Dodgers, only to see them blow it in a few innings and ultimately lose 12-7.
Sometimes you just know who will eventually come out on top in the regular season. Los Angeles is obviously better than San Diego, and after winning two out of three contests against their rivals last week on the road, the Dodgers put themselves in perfect cruise control position for the next few months. But to see the Padres lose the way they did last night told me that, mentally, they have no shot against the four-time reigning NL West champs if these clubs meet in October. And that’s a big if, because right now the Friars are playing .500 ball and currently on the outside of the postseason picture after dropping their sixth straight game on Thursday.
The feeling I have with Chicago and Cleveland is a little different, given that the clubs are tied in the standings. However, the Guardians are looking for a third straight AL Central crown and fourth in five seasons. They are the team to beat in that division, and yesterday’s comeback win at home reminded me that, when it comes down to it, they are still the better franchise right now. That might not last too much longer, but you can always tell when a team has been through the grinder and found a way to survive. Cleveland knows how to win division championships. Chicago? Not so much. The Sox have one AL Central title in the last 17 years.
Anyway, my feelings aside, both of those four-game series still qualify for this week’s top five list. Let’s begin.
No. 1: White Sox (45-41) at Guardians (46-42)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Guardians won Thursday’s opener, 6-5.
I’ve already discussed this series in the lead. I’ll stay away from my personal feelings and any facts already mentioned. The White Sox-Guardians series ranks No. 1 on this weekend’s list because it’s the only one involving the top clubs in a division that is still up for grabs. In other words, this series has far more meaning than the Dodgers-Padres four-game set given the standings. Los Angeles isn’t blowing a 13-game lead to second-place San Diego. That division is over. You heard it here first.
We know what happened in Game 1. Now we’re going to find out how Chicago responds to what was a crushing loss on Thursday. After yesterday’s defeat, the White Sox dropped to 17-27 on the road, and if they are going to hang with Cleveland in the AL Central, that .386 winning percentage away from home probably needs to improve.
Yes, the AL Central isn’t strong, and the winner might end up finishing only a few games above .500. However, here’s an interesting fact to keep in mind about this division. Since 2015, only two AL Central champions have finished with a losing record on the road. One of those teams was the ’21 White Sox (40-41 road record), and the other was the ’23 Twins (40-41 road record). If that trend continues, and the winner of this division needs to finish with no fewer than 40 road wins, then, in theory, Chicago would need to go 23-14 over its final 37 contests away from home. I’m certainly not declaring that a must; I’m just giving the AL Central facts from the last decade. If history holds true in ’26, then these next three games in Cleveland are probably crucial for Chicago.
Expected starting pitching matchups:
Friday: CHW – Anthony Kay (17 G, 15 GS, 6-3, 4.50 ERA) versus CLE – Gavin Williams (17 GS, 9-4, 3.81 ERA)
Saturday: CHW – Sean Burke (17 G, 13 GS, 5-4, 3.69 ERA) versus CLE – Parker Messick (17 GS, 7-5, 2.85 ERA)
Sunday: CHW – Erick Fedde (17 G, 9 GS, 3-6, 4.41 ERA) versus CLE – Tanner Bibee (18 GS, 2-9, 3.69 ERA)
No. 2: Cardinals (45-39) at Cubs (49-38)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Let’s get off division leaders for a bit and focus on two NL Central teams that aren’t out of the race, but certainly have work to do if they want to catch the first-place Milwaukee Brewers.
Chicago is five games behind Milwaukee and a half-game ahead of Philadelphia for the top NL wild card spot. The Cubs are playing fantastic ball, and it’s been highlighted by two guys playing out of their minds during this current hot streak. We’ll start with the just-announced National League Player of the Month, CF Pete Crow-Armstrong. He finished June with a ridiculous .381/.468/.781 slash line. Between Crow-Armstrong’s bat and, perhaps, the best stretch by a nine-hole hitter we’ve ever seen, Dansby Swanson (26 RBI over his last 10 contests), the Baby Bears are not to be messed with.
On the other side, St. Louis continues to play well. Although they aren’t on the heater that Chicago is, they’ve been consistently solid since the campaign began. They haven’t had a losing month, and own a winning record at home (23-21) and on the road (22-18). The Cardinals won two of three meetings with Chicago in late May at Busch Stadium and will host the Cubs four times at the end of this month before their final series at Wrigley Field in mid-August.
If the playoffs started today, both clubs would be in as wild-card entrants. Chicago is 2 ½ games ahead of the Redbirds. This is a big-time series. Game 1 is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. on Friday. Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante (16 GS, 9-5, 3.83 ERA) will get the nod versus Chicago’s newly acquired southpaw, David Peterson (17 G, 9 GS, 4-6, 5.86 ERA), who is making his second start for St. Louis since being traded from the Mets on June 25. Peterson earned the win in his team debut on June 27 at Milwaukee after surrendering two runs over 5 ⅔ frames.
No. 3: Rays (51-33) at Astros (43-46)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
It’s a nice time to be a Tampa Bay Rays fan. Eight wins in a row countered with seven straight losses by the only other AL East squad with division title hopes, the New York Yankees. In the span of eight days beginning on June 24, Tampa Bay has gone from three games behind the Pinstripes to owning a four-game lead in the division at the start of this weekend’s series at Houston.
I can’t talk about the NL Player of the Month without mentioning the American League’s winner for the same award, Rays 3B Junior Caminero, who will turn 23 on Sunday. Even though Caminero’s June slash line of .327/.402/.673 isn’t as impressive as Crow-Armstrong’s; he still had an historic run that began last month and ended on Thursday. On July 1, Caminero became the youngest player to homer in six consecutive contests. Over his last eight matches, the AL MVP candidate has nine long balls and 20 ribbies. If there’s a more worthy first-half MVP in the American League, I’m not seeing it.
On the topic of Rays awards, I’d be silly not to mention that Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen was named June’s AL Pitcher of the Month. The right-hander went 3-2 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.606 WHIP over 33 frames. Rasmussen leads the AL with a 0.87 WHIP. He’ll start in the second game of this series on Saturday versus Houston’s Hunter Brown (5 GS, 1-0, 1.78 ERA).
Tampa Bay will look to extend its winning streak against a Houston squad that went 16-11 in June and is coming off a 2-1 series loss at home to Minnesota. The ‘Stros are only 21-23 at Daikin Park. However, the good news for Houston is that the Rays are 20-21 away from home. Maybe things even out in this series. The bottom line is that the Astros are playing much better lately, and are 2 ½ games back in both the AL West and AL wild card races.
No. 4: Blue Jays (41-46) at Mariners (45-43)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Will this series be as thrilling as last year’s ALCS, which saw the Blue Jays stun the Mariners, 4-3, in Game 7 thanks to George Springer’s go-ahead three-run homer in the seventh off reliever Eduard Bazardo? Probably not, but I refuse to leave this ALCS rematch off the weekend’s top five list after one of the most exciting playoff series in recent memory. This is their first meeting of ’26, and they’ll face off three more times in Toronto at the end of August.
Forgetting about last year for a moment, it goes without saying that neither club is playing up to their expectations so far. Yes, the Mariners are tied for the AL West lead with Texas. However, we can’t forget that Seattle came into this season with World Series hype, and was considered by many to be a heavy favorite in their division. A lot of folks expected this club to be better than last year’s version. They still might be, and in fairness, on July 3 of 2025, Seattle was seven games behind Houston in the AL West with a record of 45-42. Last season’s record at this time is nearly identical to what it is now, and if you really want to look for hints that the reigning AL West champs are just as good as last season’s club, their current +14 run differential is the same as it was on this day one year ago.
The same kind of numbers can’t be used to defend Toronto’s situation. I can’t pretend that last year’s AL champs are anywhere close to the squad that won 94 games and claimed the AL East title via tiebreaker over the Yankees. On this date one year ago, the Jays were in first place with a 49-38 record and a +9 run differential. They were legit division contenders, unlike this year’s team, which begins the weekend 11 ½ games out of first place with a -29 run differential.
Toronto is 3 ½ games out of a wild-card spot and has nine consecutive road contests to end the first half. After this three-game set in Seattle, they play three matches at both San Francisco and San Diego before the Midsummer Classic.
Maybe this is the type of series that gets these clubs playing at a higher level. Memories are supposed to be short in MLB over a 162-game schedule, but I’m guessing that neither club has forgotten about last year’s ALCS. The Mariners are playing for revenge. The Blue Jays are playing to show the league that they still have what it takes to get back into the World Series conversation.
No. 5: Padres (43-43) at Dodgers (57-31)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Dodgers won Thursday’s opener, 12-7.
I’m not going to bore you with the details already mentioned in the lead. The Dodgers own the Padres and the rest of the NL West until further notice. Nothing is changing at the top of this division until 2027 at the earliest. Still, San Diego is now at a point after dropping three of four contests to Los Angeles over the last week, where they’ve gone from holding the second NL Wild card spot seven days ago to three games out of a postseason position following their sixth straight loss on Thursday. That’s not good for a club that ranks 27th in MLB with a 4.80 starter ERA. If the pitchers can’t keep runs off the board, and the offense continues to struggle scoring runs themselves (currently ranked last in the NL with 340 runs scored), then their playoff outlook in a loaded National League looks slim at best.
I see two problems for the Friars over the next three days. Their struggling pitching staff faces the highest-scoring club in MLB, and their low-scoring offense goes against two of the best arms in the game on Friday and Saturday. Shohei Ohtani (13 GS, 8-2, 1.58 ERA) gets the start on Friday, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto (15 GS, 8-5, 2.67 ERA) goes on Saturday. Good luck, San Diego.
Missed the Top Five
Pirates (44-44) at Nationals (45-43): Three games
Twins (42-46) at Yankees (48-38): Three games
Orioles (40-48) at Reds (40-46): Three games
Mets (36-51) at Atlanta (50-35): Four games
Giants (36-50) at Rockies (35-53): Three games
Reds (37-48) at Angels (36-52): Three games
Marlins (46-42) at A’s (41-46): Three games
Brewers (53-32) at Diamondbacks (43-43): Three games
Tigers (38-50) at Rangers (45-43): Three games *Rangers won Thursday’s opener, 10-4.
Phillies (49-39) at Royals (35-53): Three games
