The New York Mets farm system has undergone a bit of an overhaul since Steve Cohen made it a focus after going all out to win and having it backfire a little bit. They acquired Luisangel Acuña, Drew Gilbert, and Ryan Clifford at the trade deadline and they’ve developed a whole crop of pitchers with deep arsenals and moderate upside.
The Mets have a sneaky deep system and Jett Williams, Acuña, Scott, and Vasil should all see some significant time in the Majors this year.
Top Mets’ Prospects
The Top Tier
1) Jett Williams – SS/CF, 20 YO
2023 Stats (A/A+/AA): .258 AVG | .424 OBP | .448 SLG | 14 HR | 45 SB | 22.1 K% | 19.5 BB% in 534 PA
You can make a good case for any of the top four prospects in this system to take over the number one spot, but I think Williams has the most well-rounded profile with a good amount of upside. His biggest strength is his speed and base-stealing prowess: he boasts an 87.9% stolen base success rate on 58 attempts in his brief minor league career and Fangraphs gives him 70-grade speed. But he’s also a great contact hitter as evidenced by his overall contact rate of 78.4% and zone-contact rate of 85.3% in 2023 (data from Chris Clegg’s consolidated minor league baseball player data, available through subscription only through the Dynasty Dugout).
His weakest tool is his power, but his launch angle and spray angle are almost fully optimized for power output. Most home runs are hit to the pull side, and the MLB average fly ball rate in 2023 was 33.7% and the average pull rate was 41.4%. Williams’ 2023 fly ball rate was 40.3% and his pull rate was 41.6%. So if he continues to hit the ball in the air at an above-average clip with moderate pull-side tendencies, he should be able to get to the power he does have with ease. The caveat is that a bunch of fly balls could hurt his batting average, but his speed can likely make up for it by beating out more ground balls than average.
Furthermore, he posted a .190 ISO and paired his 14 home runs with 22 doubles this year. Even if he maxes out at 15 homers, he can still produce plenty of runs by driving balls to the gaps and stretching for extra bases. He should be able to provide positive value in at least four of the five offensive fantasy categories and he has the potential to be a contributor across the board.
2) Ronny Mauricio – 2B/3B/SS/LF, 23 YO
2023 MiLB Stats (AA/AAA): .258 AVG | .424 OBP | .448 SLG | 14 HR | 45 SB | 22.1 K% | 19.5 BB%
2023 MLB Stats: .248 AVG | .296 OBP | .347 SLG | 2 HR | 7 SB | 28.7 K% | 6.5 BB%
Ronny Mauricio seemed primed to break out in the Majors this season with the potential for everyday at-bats. But the Mets can’t have anything nice, as they lost yet another key player to a season-ending knee injury when Mauricio tore his ACL this offseason.
When Mauricio returns in 2025, he’ll still be only 24 years old and should be able to pick off almost where he left off. Mauricio turned some heads when he launched a 117.3-mph double off Logan Gilbert for his first MLB hit. While he showed mighty struggles making consistent contact in all of the games following his debut, he did show league-average contact skills in the minor leagues. If he can have even just slightly below-average contact skills to pair with his top-end raw power and efficiency on the base paths, he could approach a top-100 player near his peak. There’s just more bust potential than you’d like with the contact issues he showed in his first MLB games.
Steamer’s projection system seems to believe in Mauricio’s potential, as the Steamer600 has him carrying a fantasy line of .255 AVG/20 HR/70 RBI/72 R/16 SB in full-time plate appearances (Steamer600 gives projected stat lines if every hitter would accumulate exactly 600 PAs, and if every pitcher would accumulate exactly 200 IP).
3) Drew Gilbert – OF, 23 YO
2023 Stats (A+/AA): .289 AVG | .379 OBP | .487 SLG | 18 HR | 12 SB | 18.9 K% | 11.3 BB% in 531 PA
When Drew Gilbert was promoted to AA after the first month of 2023, he significantly improved his plate discipline. He was an aggressive masher in High-A and it worked against the lesser competition to the tune of a 194 wRC+. But he became a much more balanced and complete hitter when he started facing tougher competition. Gilbert posted a 6.3 walk rate and a 22.1 strikeout rate in A+ and a 12.5 walk rate and an 18.1 strikeout rate in AA this season. This kind of improved approach after a promotion is always a very encouraging sign for the player’s success as they continue to get promoted to the upper levels and the Majors.
Gilbert was traded from the Astros to the Mets at the trade deadline along with Ryan Clifford for veteran right-hander Justin Verlander. After being traded to the Mets, he turned around a slow offensive start that he had in AA and proceeded to post a .325/.423/.561 slash line in 154 PAs with the team. This shows another example of Gilbert being able to adjust on the fly and get better after a change of scenery.
I just wouldn’t bank too much on Gilbert posting double-digit stolen base totals, as he’s only carried a 75% success rate throughout the minors so far. But Gilbert has great swing decisions with above-average power and contact skills and could be a solid middle-of-the-order bat for the Mets as soon as 2025.
4) Luisangel Acuña – 2B/SS, 22 YO
2023 Stats (AA): .290 AVG | .356 OBP | .403 SLG | 9 HR | 57 SB | 18.9 K% | 11.3 BB% in 586 PA
Luisangel Acuña is a prospect who has flashed some impressive raw skills but hasn’t quite put everything together on the field yet. He cut his strikeout rate pretty significantly in 2023, but it comes with the caveat that he did it after repeating AA. He’s now accrued 738 PAs at the level since 2022. So I would hope that he would continue to improve with that much experience, and the real test will be how he handles the veteran pitchers of AAA this season.
Acuña’s speed is undeniable, and his contact skills are probably very good, but if he can further develop the budding power ability he would really take a significant step forward. Luckily, we now have statcast at the AAA level and we’ll be able to see any offseason gains in his batted ball data pretty quickly.
5) Christian Scott – SP, 24 YO
2023 Stats (A/A+/AA): 87.2 IP | 2.57 ERA | 31.9 K% | 3.6 BB%
Christian Scott had an incredible, break-out performance in 2023 and it was backed up by a well-rounded arsenal with great control. His fastball sits in the mid-90s with great run, his slider sits 82-84 and tight break, and his changeup sits 80-81 with a ton of drop and decent arm-side run. He seems to be more confident in his changeup and his slider, but he uses the slider selectively and effectively including for first-pitch strikes.
His control took a significant step forward in 2023, even though it was pretty solid already. He went from an 8.4% walk rate in 2022 to a 3.6% walk rate this season. What’s even more impressive is that his Ball% backed up this improvement. He posted a minuscule 31.4% ball percentage in 62.0 AA IP, which is extremely impressive and would be in the 90th percentile of MLB pitchers this season. The 30%+ strikeout rate likely isn’t sustainable, but he should still be able to post an above-average strikeout rate in the majors considering he posted a 17.9% swinging strike rate in AA as well.
6) Kevin Parada – C, 22 YO
2023 Stats (A/A+/AA): .252 AVG | .326 OBP | .428 SLG | 14 HR | 1 SB | 27.7 K% | 7.7 BB% in 466 PA
Kevin Parada was the Mets’ 11th overall selection in the 2022 MLB draft and he’s had some trouble with consistency since his professional debut. But to give him the benefit of the doubt, he has been promoted pretty quickly and has played at five different levels in two seasons. His power started to show this season in High-A when he hit 11 HR in his 382 PAs at the level. The strikeout rate was definitely a bit too high and the batting average seems suspect at best, but he should be able to hold his own compared to other catchers and establish himself as a solid high-floor power option at the position.
7) Dominic Hamel – SP, 25 YO
2023 Stats (AA): 124.0 IP | 3.85 ERA | 30.4 K% | 9.3 BB%
Dominic Hamel has begun to separate himself among the crowd of Mets pitching prospects after a very solid 2023 performance at AA. His arsenal is four pitches deep and each one is pretty effective. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s but has great ride with good spin numbers. His best secondary is a wipeout slider and his curveball has solid potential but gets pummeled if it isn’t buried in the dirt. His final pitch is a changeup that works well off his fastball with solid run and fade.
Hamel was able to post a 14.6% swinging strike rate with a 36.0% ball percentage and a 31.4 CSW% in AA this season. None of those numbers are especially impressive but each of them is at or above league average and points to him featuring a well-rounded profile of getting swings and misses and avoiding too many walks.
Prospects Dynasty Managers Should Know
8) Ryan Clifford – 1B/OF, 20 YO
2023 MiLB Stats (A/A+): .262 AVG | .374 OBP | .480 SLG | 24 HR | 5 SB | 27.4 K% | 12.5 BB% in 511 PA
Ryan Clifford is the second half of the return the Mets got for Justin Verlander at the trade deadline. He showed great power numbers with a decent approach with the Astros but struggled mightily to adjust after the trade to the Mets. He still showed good power numbers but he’ll have to show in 2023 that he can recover the plate discipline and moderate contact skills.
9) Mike Vasil – SP, 24 YO
2023 Stats: 124.0 IP | 4.65 ERA | 26.4 K% | 8.8 BB%
Mike Vasil looked like one of the most exciting prospects during the first half of 2023 at AA, but everything unraveled when he was promoted to AAA. His control was impeccable in AA but completely flipped on its head to the tune of an 11.7 BB% in 73 AAA IP. His stuff isn’t very great (although pretty consistent) so his upside will likely be determined by which version of his control we see in 2023.
10) Wilfredo Lara – 2B/3B/OF, 20 YO
2023 Stats (A): .264 AVG | .362 OBP | .452 SLG | 14 HR | 17 SB | 21.8 K% | 12.2 BB% in 409 PA
Wilfredo Lara flashed the makings of 20/20 potential in a full season at Low-A. His power took a pretty huge step forward and his .188 ISO is right up there with Mauricio and Gilbert, albeit at a lower level. If he can carry these gains to High-A and Double-A he’ll just have to improve the approach slightly to see a well-rounded potential profile.
11) Colin Houck – SS/2B/3B, 19 YO
2023 Stats (CPX): .273 AVG | .400 OBP | .333 SLG | 0 HR | 0 SB | 22.5 K% | 17.5 BB% in 40 PA
Colin Houck was the Mets’ first-round pick in the 2023 draft out of high school. He only played nine games at the complex level in 2023 so there’s not much to take from the performance. He’s also still at least three or four years away from the majors, so an investment in Houck is showing confidence in his draft place and the Mets’ development skills.
12) Justin Jarvis – SP, 24 YO
2023 Stats (AA/AAA): 118.2 IP | 5.31 ERA | 25.5 K% | 11.1 BB%
Justin Jarvis relies heavily on a low-90s fastball that doesn’t have great shape, but he does have really good command of the pitch. The rest of the arsenal is alright but he really struggles to command the secondaries. He’ll have to replicate the success he saw in AA at getting more chases and swings and misses on the secondaries to be effective.
13) Blade Tidwell – SP, 22 YO
2023 Stats (A+/AA): 116.0 IP | 3.57 ERA | 31.4 K% | 12.9 BB%
Blade Tidwell features some really exciting stuff in an arsenal highlighted by a high-velocity fastball. But of course, he can’t seem to find the zone consistently with his pitches. His ball percentage rose over 40% in 2023 and his stuff wasn’t quite as effective after the promotion to AA. Finding some consistency will go a long way for him this season.
14) Marco Vargas – 2B/SS, 19 YO
2023 Stats (CPX/A): .274 AVG | .429 OBP | .386 SLG | 2 HR | 13 SB | 15.7 K% | 20.9 BB%
Marco Vargas has shown the beginnings of a pretty solid backup middle infielder with a great approach and athleticism. His ceiling will be decided by how much power he’s able to develop, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. Even if that doesn’t come, he should carry good batting averages with decent speed and defensive skills to find his way on rosters.
15) Robert Colina – SP, 23 YO
2023 Stats (A/A+/AA): 67.2 IP | 3.72 ERA | 28.7 K% | 6.0 BB%
Robert Colina started off the season primarily as a reliever but working his way into a starter’s workload. He was able to maintain his strikeout skills and actually improve his walk rate pretty decently. His arsenal primarily features a solid fastball and sharp slider and he’ll occasionally break out a vicious curve.
The Next Five
Although these prospects do not crack the top 15, dynasty managers should keep their eye on these five players.
Jeremiah Jackson – 24 YO – Went 22 HR/27SB in 500 AA PA; massive swing-and-miss issues
Brandon Sproat – 23 YO – ’23 draftee yet to make professional debut; 28.8 K% at U of Florida in Senior year; Potential low-ceiling innings-eater
Alex Ramirez – 21 YO – Former top-100 prospect took a huge step back in a full season of PT at A+; Has the speed and acceptable approach, we just need to see the promised power develop
Rowdey Jordan – 25 YO – Made good improvements to approach and power numbers in second stint at AA; switch-hitting OF is approaching the do-or-die years
Yohairo Cuevas – 20 YO – Went 6 HR/13 SB in just 181 PAs between CPX and A ball; Needs to continue working on approach