Out Of Gaus

I can imagine those owning Kevin Gausman want to drop him so badly right now after putting up a 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks line following a rocky...

I can imagine those owning Kevin Gausman want to drop him so badly right now after putting up a 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks line following a rocky start of the year. Sure, he seemingly bounced back against Toronto last week, but Gaus now has 12 walks in 18.2 innings and just 13 Ks to his name. That’s just not acceptable, especially from a pitcher who I expect to showcase a solid floor with a low walk rate from start-to-start. He increased his Splitter usage in the second half last year and for whatever reason abandoned the pitch today, throwing it just seven times among the 79 pitches total. Why he’s not using his best p itch is beyond me, and to see him struggle this much with his Fastball command is very concerning. This is all without mentioning that he faced the Reds, who I wouldn’t consider the cream of the crop offensively (even if they are starting the season somewhat hot). Now, he gets the Red Sox next, which is an auto-bench, duh, but I don’t think I’m dropping him unless there is a clear option on the waiver wire. I think he can bounce back in a few starts, work in more Splitters and get that Fastball command back to where it was. It’s still there, he’s just going through a rough patch.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Miguel Gonzalez – 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Gonzalez was at 58 pitches entering the seventh inning, so what does he do? He throws a three pitch inning that included a hit. I was actually at this game and kinda rooting for him to go the distance at 75 pitches or so and was a little happy the game ended so soon because I had things to write like this article. You’re not a real Yankee fan! So far from the truth since I’m willing to give us some tough love and root for us to lose so we can deal everything at the deadline one more time and set us up for the best possible 2018 and beyond. But why am I writing all of this. I don’t know. What I do know is that baseball is a silly sport where MG can be amazing on a given day. He’s also more often terrible, which means that I’m saying Miguel…no.

Wei-Yin Chen – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Chen threw 100 pitches of no-hit ball against the Mariners and was pulled from the game. That’s just wrong in my book. I’m sorry but the Marlins aren’t in a situation like the Dodgers last year where they needed to protect Rich Hill for their playoff run, and it’s very conceivable that Chen could survive through pitch 120 to make it happen. Then there’s the idea that he’s not a young arm they need to protect or that he’s not capable of pushing himself in games. Not to mention that Chen will most likely never get another shot at doing this again in his life. But go ahead Marlins. Do your thing. Man, you’re really firey tonight. DELIRIOUS NICK IS HERE AND READY TO DANCE.

Max Scherzer – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I didn’t watch this one, but apparently CB Buckner was terrible behind the plate. *Watches video*. Yeah, I don’t really understand how this can happen twice in one week (before with McCullers) and there are zero repercussions for it. Get it together blue.

Mike Foltynewicz – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Yeah, he really was terrible behind the plate. This means those four walks should be worse and Folty’s ER total jumps a bit. He does get the Phils and Mets in the near future, but I’m not really a big fan of the guy as I don’t think his Fastball is all that effective and his secondary stuff is kinda meh. I just don’t see the path to upside here.

Luis Severino – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. I have to say, he looked really good where I was sitting where we could easily tell the miles of air between some of these swings and where the ball was falling on his Slider. I still worry that his heater will get hammered without a proper Changeup that he trusts and this was the ChiSox after all, but it’s hard not to get a little excited. Obviously I’d be taking a flier here in 12 teamers. Oh, and this is totally a point for me. Streaming Record 6.5-4-2.

Shelby Miller – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Yeah yeah yeah, the Padres and all, but Miller did gear it up past 98mph and record 13 whiffs on the day. That’s solid stuff. Can’t fully trust it yet, but a clear step in the right direction.

Andrew Triggs – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. So remember how he played the Royals and I was saying I’m cautious that he can’t do it against a good team like the Rangers? Well he did it against the Rangers too. Better start believing if he’s on your wire.

Matt Cain – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Cain got the Royals and the Royals got got. How Cain is making that happen is beyond me but, you know, baseball n stuff. Seriously though, don’t chase Cain.

Matt Andriese – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Outside of thinking that throwing a 2-0 Fastball right down the middle of the plate to Miguel Cabrera was a good idea, Andriese impressed me tonight with this performance against the Tigers. Might be a bit tough against the Astros next, but there are worse options in deep leagues.

Zack Wheeler – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. 10/22 on first pitch strikes makes me a little uneasy despite the overall great outing and the Phils makes me question the legitamcy of 1 ER and 7 Ks. Still need to see more, I am cautiously optimistic though.

Jason Hammel – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Good to see Hammel get on his feet. I think there’s a chance he provides consistent value in 12-teamers at some point. That may be right now, I’m not willing to make that bet, though.

Mike Leake – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. After two games tallying 13 Ks, Leake decided to be his mysterious self, waving his arms while going “eweeewwweee ohhhhhhh” and give us just one strikeout. But just 1 ER so we can’t be all that mad and have to keep trusting him. Yay.

Zach Eflin – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Eflin is in there for the injured Buchholz (what a heartbreak) and he was serviceable if you ran with him against the Mets. I’m not sure why you’d make that bet of all bets, but if you did I have to tip my cap. Next time let me know when you’re spinning to wheel to help the rest of us out, will ya? Eflin is highly susceptible to meltdowns making him a near avoid-at-all-costs kind of pitcher at the moment.

Chad Kuhl – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Kuhl story bro. But Nick, that’s just 5 ER in three starts. And a near 1.50 WHIP. Don’t be a fool, don’t add Kuhl.

Ricky Nolasco – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Is Nolasco going to make The List now? Is Firefly ever going to have more than one season? No? Ding ding *sob* ding.

Michael Fulmer – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This is kinda Bleghy from one of my Power Quads and I don’t like that. Power Quads? It’s what I’m calling my group of four young stud pitchers that I love this year: Jameson Taillon, James Paxton, Aaron Nola, Michael FulmerThey make up the Power Quads. Anyway, there will be a decent amount of starts with Fulmer that are like this, though his value is more in a solid floor that sits around here with a good ceiling that will make up for these outings.

Kyle Freeland – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. More like Kyle FreePass, am I right? Nick, you really need to write these earlier than 2:00am. Yeah, you’re probably right.

Jarred Cosart – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Because I know all of you are holding your breath on this one, Cosart strained his hamstring in this outing. I’d expect a DL sting to follow and his running for the MFRSDPSPA to take a hit. It’s going to be a close one.

Josh Tomlin – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. This is actually a good start from Tomlin, that’s how much I believe in him these days.

Yu Darvish – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Dude was killing it heading into the sixth and then it all came apart for four earned runs because we can’t have nice things.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Ryu has been tasked to face the Rockies in Coors, Cubs in Wrigley, and now the Rockies at home. That’s pretty cruel to a guy missing as much time as he has since 2014. I’m not saying I want to roster him, but I’m willing to see this one out before writing it off.

Bronson Arroyo – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. The headlines here are that Arroyo got his first Win in ages. Woop-de-doo that’s a bad start.

Yovani Gallardo – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. His YoGa poses are so bad, not even Walmart will sell his “The Change Of Your Life” DVDs in the discount bin. That’s the best you got? You want to go in that bin too? CAUSE THAT’S WHERE YOU’RE HEADED.

Brian Johnson – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Yeah, Johnson is a Cup of Schmo. Don’t want none of this.

Joe Musgrove – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Daaaaang. I think Musgrove has the stuff in him, but like Snell he’ll need some time before seeing it through. It really is too bad since he had one of the best two-start weeks around for someone not a clear stud. If he’s on the wire, consider it a risky pickup and closely monitor his next start against the Rays. Streamer Record: 6.5-5-2.

Phil Hughes – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. But at least that K/BB is still golden.

Brett Anderson – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Bleeeegh. Nothing like holding a 100% HR/FB rate for a groundball pitcher. His xFip was 0.61 today…but seriously if I roll with Anderson it’s to get a cheap Win, but this wasn’t my favorite as the Brewers are a solid offense. The Pirates, however, aren’t and I’m alright with that one.

Jimmy Nelson – 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. And this is why I didn’t add Nelson to The List. Well he faced the Cubs. True, do you have faith starting him now against the Cardinals next week? I don’t.

Marcus Stroman – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Stroman got Singled Out in this one, allowing all his ER on singles in the third and singles paired with back-to-back doubles in the fifth. Facing the Red Sox is one of the toughest challenges out there and at least he was beat with singles as opposed to the longball. This totally could have been six innings at 3 ER and 7 Hits and we’d shrug it off and move on. Not saying we should do that necessarily, but I’m not putting so much weight into this.

Today’s Streamer

Robert Gsellman vs. Philadelphia Phillies – I’m rolling the dice here, but I think Gsellman’s stuff is too good to keep faltering. Now he gets a team not named the Marlins and I think he’ll do well. Certainly doesn’t deserve the sub 15% ownage rate right now.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Daniel Norris vs. Tampa Bay Rays He’s still out there for some silly reason (Just 12% owned!) and you best take advantage of that.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Adam Conley vs. San Diego Padres – I’d consider Colon as well if I really needed another start as he faces the Phils, but Conley against the Padres seems like the safer bet to make.

Game of the Day

Joe Ross vs. Julio Teheran – Ross makes his 2017 debut and I would love to see decent command of his Changeup. Hell, just good Fastball command and some wicked Sliders will do.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

19 responses to “Out Of Gaus”

  1. Manley Ramirez says:

    For your streamer record I think you can select a DFS/pts style scoring system you think is fair. Then you define what a neutral start would be, say 10pts, so 10 would be a tie, 18 would be a win and 3 would be a loss etc.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Interesting, I might write a quick article detailing it just to set the record (heeeyyyyooo) straight.

      I was thinking using VPR as my metric, but DFS points makes a ton of sense as well. I guess I’d just have a point value assigned to myself by the end of it?

      • Manley Ramirez says:

        I don’t get it — isn’t VPR designed to measure consistency start to start? So how would that work with a one-off stream? I think you can use pts scoring and continue giving yourself a “record”. I don’t think your total pts accumulated on the season would mean much because sometimes you choose 1 streamer, sometimes 2.

        • Nick Pollack says:

          What I meant by VPR was that I would use the same thresholds for Excellent/Neutral/Poor to determine if I deserved a Win-Tie-Loss for a given stream. I think I’d need to fine-tune it a little to be more lax on the Win side (Excellent is meant to be an extreme), but the end of neutral to Poor (4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5 Ks) seems like the proper threshold from a Tie to a Loss streaming wise.

          I’ll think about this over the weekend.

          • Manley Ramirez says:

            I think points systems are generally superior because they account for innings. A 4.50 ERA for 4 innings is garbage but 6IP with 3ER and 5Ks is a decent stream and most point systems would reward it as such.

            • Nick Pollack says:

              I’m with you in that regard, I meant to mention that a neutral required six innings at that ERA.

          • Manley Ramirez says:

            I’d call that line a Win, not neutral. You can’t set the bar that high for streamers.

  2. chrish011 says:

    Just dropped Musgrove for Daniel Norris, but Triggs is still out there and is intriguing me. I have Mike Wacha, and although I’ve been enjoying the ride with him, I had him last year and just don’t have the confidence to believe he’ll continue to pitch as well as he has. Should I try trading him or just drop him for Triggs before someone pills the trigger? Swear there was no pun intended on that last line

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Hey Chris!

      I’d stick with Norris. It’s a tough schedule ahead with Seattle + Houston + Detroit for Triggs, which could be beneficial but a bigger risk than we want to take.

      • chrish011 says:

        Sorry Nick, believe I confused you there. The two transactions I made this morning were: dropping Musgrove for Norris, and dropping Mike Wacha for Triggs, and I wanted to know if dropping Wacha was smart or should I have held on longer? Believe I made the right move there, even if Wacha has been pitching well, it was really all a lie anyways, right?… RIGHT!??? Oh gosh tell me I didn’t drop a rejuvenate​d and revolutionized Wacha.

        • Nick Pollack says:

          Oh sorry about that!

          I think that’s a fine move. I don’t love Wacha right now and Triggs is a decent upside flier to go with after his start against Texas.

  3. Streamed Shelby Miller. Great call Nick!!

  4. Alex R. says:

    Someone inexplicably dropped Nola in my 10-man league. Who should I drop in order to scoop him up? Gausman or Pomeranz? My other SP’s are Keuchel, Manaea and Eickhoff

  5. Charles Leroy says:

    Hey Nick, if you did a mid-week update to the List, around what number would you have Triggs now that he did something against Texas? Thanks!

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Hey Charles,

      Probably around the low 70s. Still not sold that he can be dependable but I like him as a flier pick more than others.

  6. John says:

    I watched Musgrove last night and I thought he looked pretty good. Springer was a couple inches away from catching Trout’s double (hit his glove) and perhaps the Pujols homer could’ve been avoided had the Astros decided to walk him with first base open and Cron & Maybin coming up.

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