In dynasty formats, the best values in the trade market present themselves when a player is either coming off a terrible season or recovering from an injury. The adage “out of sight, out of mind” can be particularly impactful in the latter scenario.
When acquiring prospects in general, the margin for error is much more significant as the track record of success at the Major League level is not a factor. You’re buying what could be versus what you already know, and in most cases, you’re speculating on a small sample.
Knowing all this, here are some prospects to buy and sell in your dynasty leagues entering the off-season.
BUYS
Chandler Simpson, TBR
Let’s start with the obvious: Chandler Simpson has game-changing speed. In 110 games this season, he swiped 104 bags. Yes, we cannot take all Minor League baserunning stats as gospel. The catching situation is bleak there. Also, yes, Simpson is elite. We are talking about 80-grade speed and likely a league leader in steals at various points in his MLB career. Before you ask, no, Simpson is not Esteury Ruiz or Victor Scott II 2.0. Neither of those players had the same skill set as Simpson, although all three are considered above-average defenders in addition to their speed.
What sets Simpson apart are his plate skills, particularly the ability to make consistent contact. During the season, Simpson had a 93% overall contact rate. For context, only one player has a contact rate higher than him in the big leagues, the great Luis Arraez, who sits at 94.1%. That means that Simpson has a 7% whiff rate or misses 7 out of 100 pitches he swings at. That is absurd. Simpson parlayed his skill into a .355 batting average this season. His OBP was a Soto-esque .410, with 44 walks against 43 strikeouts. His consistency at the plate enables him to get on base and ultimately run at will.
The downside to Simpson’s profile is that he doesn’t hit for any power. In 233 career Minor League games, he has just one home run. Of course, it was an inside-the-park home run this season. He posted a decent average exit velocity this season of 89 mph, but his max EV is under 100 mph. But there is so much value in a guy who could hit over .300 with 60+ steals annually in the big leagues. The Rays are one of those teams that offer such unique opportunities for talent to shine through, and I see a scenario where Simpson is up sometime in 2025 and highly impactful as a fantasy asset for years.
Chandler Simpson (@RaysBaseball) adds to his Minor League leads with three knocks and a pair of swipes for @BiscuitBaseball:
.362 AVG
104 SB pic.twitter.com/V2upM8dNAy— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 12, 2024
Matthew Lugo, LAA
Lugo is a sneaky pickup in Dynasty this offseason and has improved his value moving forward following a change of scenery. He had mixed results over four seasons in the Red Sox organization after being selected in the 2nd round in 2019. In July, Lugo, the nephew of Carlos Beltrán, was among four players traded to the Angels in exchange for reliever Luis Garcia, giving him a new opportunity to show his improved skills. Lugo played just one game for Triple-A Salt Lake following the trade before a hand injury ended his season.
2023 challenged Lugo both physically and mentally. First and foremost, he changed positions. After spending most of his career as a shortstop, he transitioned to the outfield full-time to accommodate top prospect Marcelo Mayer. Second, Lugo saw sporadic playing time, seeing action in just 83 games after consecutive seasons of 100+ games played. As a result, Lugo slashed .242/.297/.381 with five homers and a 28% strikeout rate, his worst season as a pro.
Entering this season, Lugo emphasized swing changes with an eye on improved swing decisions, leading to more consistent contact and enhanced power. The result was a career-best season for Lugo, who had 17 home runs, 21 doubles, a .954 OPS, and 16 steals, splitting time between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester. In addition, his strikeout rate fell by 4%, while his walk rate jumped to a career-best 10%. While his average exit velocity of 85.2 mph is uninspiring, Lugo did have a 90th percentile EV of 104.6 mph and a max EV of 111.2 mph.
The most significant factor for me with Lugo is the move to the Angels. By changing organizations, Lugo has a much more straightforward path to playing time. The Angels have already discussed Mike Trout moving to DH, leaving Taylor Ward as the only “locked-in” outfielder moving forward. Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak are busted prospects, while Luis Rengifo is best suited as a full-time utility player. If Lugo continues to build on his improved skills in Spring Training, he’s got a great shot at making the Opening Day roster.
Matthew Lugo got promoted to AAA and has just kept homering.
Back to back days going deep.
Now up to 13 in 45 games between AA/AAA.
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) June 6, 2024
Honorable Mention
Jonny Farmelo, SEA
Farmelo is a player I’ll be targeting in all leagues this offseason. Farmelo only played 46 games this season but slashed .264/.398/.421 with four homers at Class A Modesto. The production seems modest, but Farmelo’s talent was evident. Farmelo had 13 extra-base hits in addition to 18 stolen bases. Farmelo put in the maximum effort every night and played with a contagious high energy. Unfortunately, a torn ACL ended his season early in June before he could get a much-deserved promotion. Farmelo has the talent and skill set to become a Top 25 prospect or higher and will be a fast riser in 2025.
SELLS
Robert Calaz, COL
Calaz is one of the fastest risers in the prospect world. Calaz dominated the DSL in 2023, posting a .984 OPS with seven home runs and six steals in 43 games. Calaz mashed in the Complex League this summer as a follow-up before getting a small 13-game sample at Low-A. Over 62 games this season, the 18-year-old slashed .344/.446/.633 with 12 home runs, 14 doubles, seven triples, and 15 steals. It’s been 105 games as a pro, and Calaz has already ascended into a Top 25 prospect, including in my rankings. So why am I selling Calaz?
A few factors play into my decision to move on from Calaz. The first is his level of competition. The DSL and Complex leagues are fine places for players to get a start, but the pitching isn’t great. Despite this, Calaz has a 26.6% strikeout rate across 399 plate appearances. That’s less than ideal. His contact rate was 65% during the season, and his swing rate was nearly 50%, two problematic data points moving forward. Given his age, both will likely improve, but to what degree?
The second is his age. Calaz is 18 and will turn 19 until November. He’s played in 13 games outside of the DSL and the Complex. In a best-case scenario, Calaz is MLB-ready late in 2026 or possibly 2027. That’s not to say that Calaz is overrated as a Dynasty asset, but more so that he’s being overvalued. We don’t know what Calaz will do in full-season ball, but his value is skyrocketing, and that’s when you sell a prospect. The goal should be to move Calaz to a rebuilding team as part of a package for a star or a player with proximity to the big leagues. Both scenarios upgrade a win-now team, a true win-win for everyone involved.
Spencer Jones, NYY
I’m still determining the public perception of Jones, the freakishly athletic outfielder in the Yankees’ farm system. At 6’7″, Jones has drawn logical comps to Aaron Judge, a transcendent star who is also a 6’7″ outfielder for the Yankees. The comparison doesn’t just stop with physical characteristics, as Jones has delighted fans with his towering home runs and above-average speed, especially for a player his size.
The problem for Jones is simple: He needs to make more contact. His overall contact rate in 2024 is below 59.4%. For context, the player with the worst contact skills in baseball is Jose Siri, who has a 61% overall contact rate but a 67% in-zone rate. Yikes! In 544 plate appearances, Jones has accumulated 200 strikeouts, the most of any player in the Minor leagues. Contact issues are nothing new for Jones, as he posted a 29% strikeout rate last season, most of which was spent at High-A.
Jones shows incredible power when he makes contact and realistically could produce a 40-homer season if everything clicks. In addition, Jones can run. Jones has 68 steals over the past two years, including 25 this season, and should continue running in the big leagues. The allure of a left-handed power bat with a double-digit steal upside is sexy for fantasy, especially with the short porch in Yankee Stadium. It’s just not a profile that I want to be part of. I can’t see Jones in the Majors without a significant skills change. I would aim to package Jones with a mid-tier MLB-level player to upgrade at that position or to move him for a young prospect that’s trending upward.