Welcome back to our Patience or Panic series! Now that we have passed the All-Star break, the regular season is almost in the home stretch. For those of us in leagues that have playoffs, the end is even closer, which means it’s time to make difficult decisions that will put our teams in the best position down the stretch. I want to note that the sample sizes from the past month that I will be looking at here are a bit smaller than usual, as we had a few days with no games over the break. Also, keep in mind that the All-Star break can be a time when struggling players reset and make subtle adjustments to try to bust out of a slump. If you have any players that you’re on the fence about dropping, take a closer look at their performance over the next 10 days or so before you pull the trigger. Stats like strikeout-to-walk ratio and pitch-level metrics (O-Swing%, Contact%, etc.) can be particularly useful when looking at only a few games of results. All stats are through the games of July 22.
Matt Olson, 1B, ATL
Last 30 days: .130/.214/.185 (16 wRC+), 6 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB
Season: .220/.300/.389 (92 wRC+), 41 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 0 SB
What on earth is going on with Matt Olson?! After a ludicrous 2023 season where he clocked 54 long balls and recorded over 250 combined runs and RBIs, Olson hasn’t even been a league-average hitter this year. Like the rest of Atlanta’s offense, he has fallen off a cliff. In the past 30 days, Olson has been the worst qualified hitter in the league by a wide margin; Alex Verdugo’s 30 wRC+ ranks second-worst. Even though he’s known as a player whose offensive production can fluctuate widely from year to year, Olson has hit .240 or above with at least 29 home runs and 80 RBI in every season where he’s played at least 100 games.
As you can see in the table above, Olson has regressed in pretty much every way this year. Compared to 2023, Olson is walking less and striking out more, though the small increases in swinging strike rate and chase rate suggest that the big jump in K% might not be fully deserved. Regardless, the area where Olson has taken the biggest step back is contact quality. His barrel rate and exit velocity on flyballs have dropped precipitously, meaning that his poor results this season have mostly been deserved. Olson has done nothing over the last 30 days to signal that he’s beginning to turn things around, as his contact quality has remained poor while the Ks continue to pile up.
Verdict: Panic. Atlanta’s lineup continues to be ravaged by injuries, and Olson is playing like he might be hurt too. His power has regressed to that of a typical first baseman, and Olson seems likely to continue to produce a detrimental batting average. I would never consider dropping Olson regardless of format, but I would start listening to offers, especially if you have a good alternative at the position. There might be some managers in your league looking to buy low and bet on Olson returning to form.
Brice Turang, 2B, MIL
Last 30 days: .189/.245/.263 (44 wRC+), 9 R, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 4 SB
Season: .267/.330/.375 (101 wRC+), 47 R, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 30 SB
Turang has broken out this year as a fantasy asset after a brutal rookie campaign in 2023 in which he slashed .218/.285/.300 (60 wRC+) in 448 PA with 6 HR and 26 SB. Given that he has stolen at least 20 bags in every full professional season he’s played, the speed was always going to be there for Turang, but last season left serious questions about his offensive potential at the major league level. He’s made some great adjustments this year, namely flattening out his swing (his launch angle has fallen from 11.5 degrees to 4.6 degrees year-over-year) and improving his ability to make contact. Turang’s contact, zone contact, and swinging strike rates have all improved considerably from last year and rank above the 90th percentile. This type of approach makes sense for a guy with very little power. Turang’s 2.4% barrel rate ranks in the 8th percentile, and his highest home run total in a professional season is 13. This breakout has propelled him to the top of the Brewers lineup, where he can run wild on the bases and compile counting stats.
But as I wrote about with Maikel Garcia a few weeks ago, this approach can backfire if the hits stop falling because it means fewer opportunities to run. What we are seeing here is just your standard regression to the mean. Turang was out over his skis from an offensive production standpoint for the first few months of the season, and now he is coming back to earth. His .315 BABIP compared to his .288 xBABIP suggests that there could be more to come, too.
Verdict: Patience, probably. This judgment is all about how you currently value Turang. If you were expecting him to be a top-100 player for the rest of the season as he has been so far, then it might be time to start fielding offers for the versatile Turang, who should have SS/2B eligibility in most leagues. Personally, my expectations have never been quite that high, as I see him as a competent middle infielder in the mold of Nico Hoerner. They’re both players who will play a ton because of their real-world value and have awesome fantasy seasons or stretches. But, they shouldn’t be relied on year in and year out to be studs at their position because of their offensive limitations and reliance on batted-ball luck. For the rest of this season, Turang faces little competition for the leadoff spot aside from Sal Frelick and maybe a streaking Jackson Chourio. He should continue to get a ton of plate appearances and push for 45 steals, which goes a long way even when the rest of the profile is mediocre.
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, TOR
Last 3o days: 29.2 IP, 6.98 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 42 K, 0 W
Season: 111 IP, 4.54 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 125 K, 4 W
Kikuchi might just be one of the most frustrating pitchers in fantasy baseball given his propensity for blowup outings. Take his last start, for example. In a soft matchup against the Tigers, Kikuchi had given up one run through five innings with eight strikeouts. He came back out for the sixth and went single, wild pitch, walk, hit by pitch before Trevor Richards came in and promptly allowed all three runners to score on a grand slam. Kikuchi has allowed four or more runs five times in his last seven outings, causing his ERA to balloon after such a strong start to the season.
Kikuchi’s bad results over the last month have been puzzling even as we’ve come to expect his production to not line up with his nasty pure stuff. During this stretch, he’s been nothing short of elite in the following metrics: K-BB% (24.8%), SwStr% (14.8%), CSW% (31.4%), and xFIP (3.02). All of these marks are better than his season-long figures and lend further support to the idea that this has been a run of bad luck for the talented lefty. This contrasts starkly with his teammate José Berríos, who posted a 5 ER dud with no strikeouts after I declared that it was time to panic about him due to troubling underlying metrics.
Verdict: Patience. Managers might need to have a little extra patience with Kikuchi in the near future, as he lines up for two starts against Baltimore and one against Texas his next three times out. If he can post one or two solid starts in this challenging stretch, a couple of friendlier matchups with the Angels and Cubs would be on the horizon. Even when Kikuchi gets hit, he’s going to be a great source of Ks, and his fantastic PLV (5.37, 95th percentile) suggests that good things are coming. For context, Nick has him ranked around solid arms like Logan Webb, Tanner Bibee, and Bryce Miller.