The All-Star starters have been announced, but it’s not too late for us to cast our vote based on PLV statistics. We wanted to wait until the calendar flipped to July to maximize the number of pitches seen, and now have the benefit of comparing the fan vote to PLV’s vote. Today, we’ll reveal the NL ballot and follow up with the AL next week.
Before we get to the ballot, let’s discuss the criteria. Each hitter needed to have seen a minimum of 1,000 pitches to qualify. The only exception was Catchers, who needed 800. There are several PLV categories for hitters, but the two that are the most all-encompassing are Process and Hitter Performance (HP). Process is a combination of three categories: Decision Value, Contact, and Power, and, like HP, is measured by the number of runs added per pitch. We simply added these two to qualified hitters and plucked the best by position. Like the official ballot, we selected three outfielders, regardless of their typical position, and assigned them to left, right, and center based on the best fit. All statistics below are through June 30.
Catcher
Fan & PLV Vote: Will Smith
Will Smith got the fan vote and PLV’s vote, thanks to his stellar start to the season. Smith has always been an excellent hitter for a catcher, but this season, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league, period. Smith’s .406 wOBA through June was fourth-best in baseball, and his 134 HP trailed only Aaron Judge. The backstop’s combination of excellent plate discipline and above-average power has become a vital component in the Dodgers’ potent lineup.
First Base
Fan Vote: Freddie Freeman
PLV Vote: Pete Alonso
Freddie Freeman got the fan vote and was well-deserving, but PLV cast its vote for the Polar Bear. Alonso has always displayed power, but his Strikezone Judgement (SZJ), in particular, has improved this season, helping him achieve a strong .291/.378/.532 line. After a torrid April, he cooled off a bit in May but is coming off an excellent June. Many players experience career years heading into free agency. Alonso appears to be having his after signing a two-year, $54m contract in the offseason, which is looking like a bargain.
Second Base
Fan Vote: Ketel Marte
PLV Vote: Brendan Donovan
Marte would have gotten the PLV nod in addition to the fan vote had he not missed most of April with a hamstring injury, which left him below our pitches seen threshold. Thus, we moved on to the next best second basemen on our list and landed on the versatile Brendan Donovan, who’s worked himself into the leadoff spot for the Cardinals. Donovan’s ability to make contact is what really stands out in his PLV profile. He rarely strikes out and ranks in the top 10 in IPA%.
Shortstop
Fan Vote: Francisco Lindor
PLV Vote: Elly De La Cruz
Lindor is having a fine season, and there is no shame in the fan vote, but PLV prefers Elly De La Cruz at shortstop. Elly had a rough May but is coming off a monster June in which he slashed .344/.427/.656. His combination of power and speed is among the best in baseball, but his DV and SZJ are a bit below average. If the uber-talented shortstop learns to master the strikezone, watch out.
Third Base
Fan & PLV Vote: Manny Machado
Manny Machado got the nod from the fans, and PLV agreed. The veteran is adding another stellar season to his Hall of Fame-worthy resume. Machado is capable of doing almost everything offensively, and his PLV profile demonstrates impressive consistency across all categories. He seems to be finding his Power groove of late, slugging seven of his 13 dingers in June.
Left Field
Fan Vote: Ronald Acuña Jr.
PLV Vote: James Wood
Like Ketel Marte, Acuna would have made our squad had he reached the pitch minimum. The former MVP has been terrific since returning to the lineup in May. That doesn’t mean James Wood isn’t deserving, however. The 22-year-old outfielder has taken off in his first full season, ranking fourth in the NL in HRs and RBI through June. Wood’s PLV prowess is driven by his insane Power ranking of 133. Only four players had a higher ranking in MLB, and they are all established veterans. The Juan Soto trade has worked out pretty well for the Nationals.
Center Field
Fan Vote: Pete Crow-Armstrong
PLV Vote: Seiya Suzuki
It’s hard to argue with the fans who voted PCA into the NL starting lineup. The second-year player has broken out offensively and, combined with his stellar defensive play, ranked second in fWAR to Shohei Ohtani in the NL. However, PLV is not a fan of PCA’s approach at the plate, particularly in terms of DV. His teammate, Seiya Suzuki, has been somewhat overshadowed by his fellow Cubs outfielders but is having a breakout season of his own. Injuries limited Suzuki in his first three MLB seasons, but this year, he’s been healthy and is raking. His 69 RBI were tied with Eugenio Suárez for the NL lead through June, and his 22 dingers were tied with Wood for fourth. In PLV terms, Suzuki combines excellent DV, especially on pitches out of the zone, with Power to drive his Process ranking sky-high.
Right Field
Fan Vote: Kyle Tucker
PLV Vote: Juan Soto
Kyle Tucker barely missed the cut for our starters, trailing his teammate Suzuki by a small margin for the last outfield spot. Soto garnered the highest PLV rating of any NL player and was a no-doubt selection for our starting unit. Since the advent of PLV, Juan Soto has been one of the favorites. He consistently ranks among the best in baseball in terms of DV and Power. No current MLB player can claim better plate discipline than Soto. Since 2021, the Mets’ slugger has drawn a walk on nearly 20% of his plate appearances. Think about that! His OBP is .200 without taking a swing! Combine that with a 16% K% and 152 HRs over that span, and you can understand why he’s a PLV wunderkind.
Designated Hitter
Fan & PLV Vote: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani continues to be a juggernaut offensively, though he did cool off in June. Could his return to the mound have something to do with it? In any case, he finished only slightly behind Soto in our PLV ranking and certainly deserves to be front and center in our starting lineup. Ohtani’s Power is off the charts, trailing only Aaron Judge, and not by a wide margin. His .346 ISO is ridiculous, and 82 runs through June led all MLB by nine. Regardless of what he does on the mound, where he has a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through six innings so far, he’s one of the top two best hitters on the planet.
