The calendar has flipped to July, and that means the Midsummer Classic is almost upon us. Baseball fans everywhere have been casting their All-Star ballots for weeks, and the official starting lineups are nearly set. Thus, we got to thinking: who would get our votes based on PLV statistics? Today, we’ll reveal who PLV thinks should start for the NL, and we’ll follow up with the AL next week.
Before we jump in, a quick note on the criteria. Each hitter needed to have seen a minimum of 1,000 pitches to qualify. The only exception was at catcher, which we lowered to 800. The Hitter Performance category was the dominant selection driver, but we looked at all the categories to find the players with the best overall PLV profiles. Like the official ballot, we went with three outfielders regardless of where they typically play and slotted them in left, right, and center based on the best fit. All of the stats below are through June 30.
Catcher: Will Smith
William Contreras and Patrick Bailey were also in the mix for the NL starting catcher, but Smith’s overall PLV profile was the strongest, as he ranks above average in every category. Smith is simply good at everything in the batter’s box. He has an excellent eye, generates a ton of contact, and has plenty of pop. We could have highlighted any of Smith’s PLV categories, but his ability to make contact while generating power is a trait few catchers have.
First Base: Freddie Freeman
Smith’s teammate, Freddie Freeman, is likewise a PLV favorite, as he has no weaknesses at the plate. Bryce Harper was a close second but lagged Freeman in every category except Power and HP, in which they tied. Christian Walker also deserves a shout-out, as the D’Backs slugger’s profile was very similar to Harper’s. Freeman ranks among the NL leaders in K%, BB%, and OPS, combining superb decision-making and an excellent ability to put the bat on the ball with plenty of pop. In addition to his 12 home runs, Freeman is again near the NL lead in doubles with 24.
Second Base: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte is quietly putting up massive numbers in Arizona. The second baseman already has 17 homers after hitting 25 last year and is on pace for career-highs in HRs, Runs, and RBI. His .234 ISO ranks fourth in the NL behind Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Marcell Ozuna. Despite this impressive show of power, Marte’s Strikezone Judgment jumps out as his strongest PLV category. He’s coming off a massive June, in which he slashed .341/.431/.637 with a 0.83 BB/K ratio.
Shortstop: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts was on an MVP-level pace before being plunked on the left hand by a 98 mph fastball in mid-June. He had seen enough pitches to qualify, so despite the injury, he got our vote for starting NL shortstop. Betts ranks near the top in all baseball in Decision Value, Contact, and Hitter Performance and has the stats to back up his high PLV marks. Betts ranks in the 90th+ percentile in a ton of categories, including Runs, Batting Average, OBP, SLG, wOBA, Z-Con%, K%, BB%, IPA%, Hits, O-Sw%, Whiff%, and SwStr%. With those kinds of numbers, it’s not surprising that he ranks so high in DV.
Third Base: Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm has broken out in a big way this season, adding much to his team’s MLB-best record. Austin Riley and Ryan McMahon also put forth strong cases, but Bohm’s consistency across categories put him over the top. Bohm’s power has been only league-average, but he’s shined in his Strikezone Judgment and ability to make contact. Bohm struck out at only a 13.1% clip through June and made contact on 83.1% of his swings. As the chart below denotes, he’s been incredibly consistent through the first three months of the season.
Left Field: Jurickson Profar
The first of our three NL outfielders is a bit of a surprise. Jurickson Profar wasn’t supposed to have a break-out season at age 31, but that’s precisely what he’s doing. The erstwhile top prospect is on pace to have his best MLB season by far and has been the best hitter on a Padres’ team with its share of stars. In PLV terms, Profar has shined in his Strikezone Judgment and decision-making at the plate. These ranks are supported by one of the best OBPs in baseball and an impressive 12.4% BB% and 14.7% K%. It took longer than expected, but perhaps Profar is finally reaching his potential.
Center Field: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Our second outfielder is Profar’s teammate, Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis’ inclusion in our lineup is less of a surprise, but the superstar deserves his due. As always, he’s hit the ball extremely hard, ranking among the NL leaders with a 116.7 mph max EV. However, what stands out is Tatis’ improving plate discipline. He’s chasing, whiffing, and striking out at the lowest rates of his career without sacrificing power. In short, Tatis is becoming a better hitter, as evidenced by an HP among the best in the National League.
Right Field: Teoscar Hernández
Our last outfielder, Teoscar Hernández, earned his spot despite a meager Contact rating, which he has more than compensated for with Power. Only four players in the NL had a higher power rank than Teoscar through June. He swings hard and doesn’t get cheated. The results have been spectacular. Batting behind potentially four future Hall of Famers, Hernandez is among the league leaders in HRs and RBI despite an underwhelming batting average. He swings and misses often but ranks in the 90th+ percentile in Barrel %, Exit Velocity, HR/FB, and Ideal Contact Rate.
Designated Hitter: Marcell Ozuna
Shohei Ohtani leads all NL hitters with a 137 HP rating. Yet, he’s not our starting DH, as Marcell Ozuna’s overall PLV profile is a bit stronger. We wish we could have both hitters in our lineup, as they’ve been arguably the two best in the NL, but neither has played a game in the field this season. Both players have incredible stats. Ohtani’s batting .314, Ozuna .300. Ohtani has 26 HRs, Ozuna 21. Ohtani has driven in 62 runs, Ozuna 67. Based on HP alone, Ohtani would have gotten the nod. However, Ozuna’s SZ and DV ratings were far superior to Ohtani’s, and he matched him in terms of Contact and Power.
Regardless, Ozuna belongs in the lineup based on the season he’s having. Atlanta’s DH ranks second in the NL in HRs and RBI and third in SLG, OPS, wOBA, and ISO. His Barrel and HardHit % are second only to Ohtani, and he’s getting on base at the highest rate of his career. As shown in the chart below, Ozuna has been crushing the ball consistently all season.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)