Ah, the points league, where all your fancy statistics are ground into a single little number—the Points Per Game. Got a guy that goes 30/30 with a middling batting average? 3.15 PPG. Have a player that swats 60 bangers but has a 30% strikeout rate? Also 3.15 PPG. Points Per Game is the homogenous sustenance that feeds us all; it’s the Soylent Green of fantasy stats.
But while points leagues (and their boiled-down statistic of record) can be derided as simple, they are by no means easy. Those who hate on points leagues dismiss the finer aspects of the game that go beyond the 5×5—drawing a walk, getting an extra-base hit, or just putting the ball in play. Consistent, overall production is your golden goose.
Another thing about points leagues – negative results can kill you. So great players that strike out a lot are devalued, as are good pitchers that get the occasional blow-up start. So avoid those landmines where you can.
It’s still early in spring training, with sample sizes of three to four meaningless games, but who’s climbing that points ladder and who’s digging themselves into a golden-sombrero-sized hole? Let’s take a look.
Risers
Say hello to the Alex Bregman of Japanese baseball. Okamoto played nine seasons with the Yomiuri Giants before posting to Toronto on a four-year, $60 million contract. The signing drew some attention, but for fantasy players, Okamoto was considered a mid-tier corner infielder who might sneak into the Top 300.
One swing in his first spring training game may have changed that. On Monday afternoon, Okamoto barreled a low-and-away Clay Holmes slider and sent it 431 feet to dead center, connecting with the batter’s eye. It was an alarming display of power, especially on a quality pitch at the bottom corner of the zone, and he crushed it.
Okay, okay, it’s one swing. And spring training doesn’t matter, right? Well, when you see someone do something you may not have realized they were capable of, that’s when you should take notice. And Okamoto hit the ball hard again yesterday, averaging 99 mph off the bat in his two at-bats.
What about for points leagues?
In those nine seasons in Japan, Okamoto displayed excellent plate discipline that led to a 4.6% strikeout-minus-walk rate over his last three seasons. He can hit home runs and doubles in the gap. And he’s shown he can play on the biggest of stages—in 2023’s World Baseball Classic, he batted .333 with a 1.278 OPS and eight walks in seven games. So far this spring? An identical .333 average with a 1.429 OPS.
Really, the only question here is whether the re-signing of Paul Goldschmidt is going to affect Rice’s playing time. Yankees manager Aaron Boone stated a couple of weeks ago that Rice “will see significant playing time against lefties” and would catch at least some games where Goldy plays first base.
Rice had a breakout season last year, but it was somewhat tempered in points leagues as he only reached 467 at-bats and didn’t miss any time due to injury. He hit just .208 against lefties but did manage seven homers and 14 extra-base hits against them in 106 at-bats. He’ll need to improve on that .271 OBP against them to stay in the top half of the lineup versus southpaws, let alone play every day. But if he can scratch out more than 500 at-bats over the season, regardless of where he’s hitting in the loaded New York lineup, he could be the number one points league catcher.
Anthony is officially claiming the top of the lineup in Boston, and there might not be a more exciting points-league leadoff option in baseball (okay, other than Ohtani). Anthony had a .463 OBP in AAA in 2024 (with a still-awesome .423 last year before getting called up), and that 94.5 mph exit velocity at the age of 21 is prodigious. He did fan a surprising 27.7% of the time in the majors, but that should drop to the lower-twenties in his sophomore season with a little more discipline, and last year he still drew a walk 13.2% of the time.
Hopefully, he runs a little more, as he is capable of swiping ten to fifteen bags—or certainly more than the four he nabbed last season. But one feature in most points leagues is that steals don’t matter too much, so don’t sweat it if it doesn’t happen.
What matters is the bat, and after a little bit of rookie growing pains, the bat became elite. Before an oblique injury cut his season short on September 3rd, Anthony was batting .311 after the All-Star Break with a .916 OPS.
Experts are saying he might crack the top 25 in drafts next season, but in a points league where leadoff hitters are at a premium, the ceiling is higher. And Anthony showed he loves leading off: in 132 plate appearances, he had a .439 OBP as the table-setter last year. That’s Juan Soto territory.
As Billy Beane would say, “He gets on base.” Make sure he gets on your squad.
Rasmussen made his Grapefruit League debut against the Red Sox, needing only 23 pitches to glide through a crisp pair of innings where he netted three strikeouts. And while that’s certainly encouraging, every points league player should know volume is key when it comes to your pitchers—and last year, Rasmussen didn’t have it. While he ended up with 150 very serviceable innings (1.02 WHIP, 2.76 ERA), the Rays tinkered with his workload throughout the season. During an especially painful July, Rasmussen made four starts but only threw thirteen combined innings in the entire month, regularly getting the hook after 50-60 pitches even when he was dominating. He also just threw 10.1 innings in his final three starts of the season, which probably didn’t help many fantasy players in the playoffs.
So here’s the good news: the Rays have already announced Rasmussen as their Opening Day starter, and his workload restrictions should be…less restricting. As long as he can stay healthy, Ras could reach 170 innings with solid ratios for points league players (other than his rookie season as a reliever, he’s never had a WHIP above 1.10 or an ERA over 2.85). His dominant four-seamer—according to Savant, his Fastball Run Value is in the one-hundredth-percentile—helps him get ahead of hitters and keep his pitch count low, which is why most projections have him finishing with around twenty Quality Starts.
Rasmussen didn’t strike out a ton of hitters last year, but if he continues to pitch as he did on Monday, he should inch closer to a strikeout per inning (something he’s done in previous seasons). He’s an ace. Draft him like one.
Fallers
Butler was the Athletics‘ leadoff hitter of the future going into last season, coming off a stellar 2024 where he went 22 homers and 18 steals in just over 400 at-bats. But a funny thing happened on the way to a 28.2% strikeout rate and a .306 OBP, and the team dropped him to seventh in the order in mid-August. It looks like this season the A’s are going with the unorthodox approach of batting Nick Kurtz at the top of the lineup, which means Butler will likely land in the bottom third again.
Still young with a lot of promise, Butler has the tools to become a great MLB player. Unfortunately, his 2026 season will not begin smoothly as he’s still recovering from an operation last October to fix his patellar tendon. While he’s taking BP and doing some light drills, he likely won’t make it into any spring training games until a week or so before the regular season starts, which is not a lot of time to get your rhythm. Expect a bumpy April for Butler and potentially some volume restrictions early on. And while I love the talent, the high strikeouts and a lowered ceiling on plate appearances have me swiping left.
Any Pitcher Coming Off a Major Injury
As Admiral Ackbar famously once said, “It’s a trap!” Several starters are looking to bounce back this year after losing much or all of last season to injury. Some of them might look good or even great in limited spring training appearances, while others might open the season on the IL with the promise of a May debut.
If you’re in a points league, it’s best to just skip these names altogether. Yes, Shane McClanahan is an awesome talent—but he will be micro-managed all season and you’ll be tearing your hair out when he gets pulled in the fourth inning and his team is up 8-1 (see the 2025 version of Rasmussen, Drew). And I love Brandon Woodruff as much as anyone, but in points leagues, you’re better off with 180 decent innings rather than 140 great ones, especially if they come over 30-ish abbreviated starts. So draft yourself a Tanner Bibee or a Brady Singer instead and let the rest of your league ride guys who are capped at eighty pitches a start.
