The off-season is the perfect time to dive into article ideas that the regular season simply lacks the time for. Each year, I attempt to refine my prospect ranking process. My goal is always to keep followers up to date on the latest trends and prospects that they need to roster in dynasty leagues. For those who consistently follow along, thank you.
Admittedly, the current process is not perfect. That is where this article comes into play. Bias undoubtedly plays a part in my current prospect rankings. What is one good way to remove bias? Data and numbers. So, I am taking the top 20 at each position (with some help from Martin Sekulski) and comparing their end-of-season prospect-list ranking to where they would rank in terms of projections to identify any prospects that are currently misrepresented in terms of rankings.
The Math
Each of the top 20 prospects at each position was taken and put into a spreadsheet. From there, each prospect was given a ceiling and floor projection. These projections are not data-driven, but personal scouting beliefs. The categories factoring into the model were home runs, stolen bases, batting average, strikeouts, and walks. From there, a “confidence level” was assigned to each prospect. This confidence level indicates the confidence I have in a prospect reaching their ceiling. For example, if a prospect has an 80% confidence level, then their expected projection is calculated as 80% of their ceiling and 20% of their floor.
From there, I worked with AI to build a scoring model that accounts for both positional value and a prospect’s ceiling, weighting the ceiling a bit more heavily. Positional value was factored in by utilizing FanGraphs Auction Calculator from the 2026 season. The model looks at the “elite producers” for home runs, stolen bases, and batting average at each position, the “average producers,” and the “replacement level” producers with the assumption of a standard 12-team fantasy league. To create a position benchmark blend, the model pulls 80% of the “elite producers”, 10% of the “average producers,” and 10% of the “replacement level” producers. From there, the model spits out a score for each prospect in each category based on their expected projection. The model takes 90% of a prospect’s expected projection, but also 10% of the prospect’s ceiling projection to account for upside.
The final result is a score assigned to each prospect. The goal is that throughout a prospect’s development curve, their ceiling or floor could be easily adjusted to better reflect their long-term projection. Their confidence level can also be adjusted as they develop. This article will dive into a little bit of each prospect’s projection and then compare the rankings in terms of score versus the end-of-season prospect list.
The Prospects
Charlie Condon– COL
Expected Projection: .251/28.5 HR/6.6 SB/26.1 K%/10.6 BB%
Score: 53.1
There are very few questions when it comes to Charlie Condon’s power. Last season, he posted an 87th percentile 90th EV, an 80th percentile barrel rate, and a 91st percentile Max EV. Condon is going to hit for power. The uncertainty in his projection comes from his hit tool. Condon has been a streaky hitter since being drafted and has shown a tendency to struggle with strikeouts. His patient approach and high whiff rate against sliders could get him in trouble against Major League pitching. Even with the hit tool concerns, Condon still scored a solid 53.1 overall score.
Josiah Hartshorn– CHC
Expected Projection: .264/22.6 HR/11.9 SB/21.7 K%/11.2 BB%
Score: 61.5
The 2025 draftee spent most of 2026 split between Low-A and High-A. He dominated both levels. Everything in his profile looks superb; the sample size is just smaller. Hartshorn is likely shifting to first base, and lacks the physique to steal 20+ bases. The good news is moving to first base means he does not have to. Hartshorn showed off elite plate discipline with great contact skills. His hands are quick, he controls the barrel well, and he has already shown off impressive EVs at just 19 years old. The sample size is keeping his confidence score down at 55%, but it is difficult to not fall in love with Harsthorn’s profile.
Ralphy Velazquez– CLE
Expected Projection: .257/30.2 HR/2.2 SB/24.8 K%/9.2 BB%
Score: 52.2
Ralphy Velazquez is going to hit for impressive power numbers. At his floor, he is a 22 home run bat. He also has the second-highest projected ceiling home runs amongst first basemen. That said, there are concerns when it comes to Velazquez’s hit tool. While Velazquez demolishes fastballs, he struggles to make consistent contact on anything soft. His pitch recognition can be subpar, leading to him routinely expanding the zone. This, combined with his lack of speed, keeps him just below Condon in the overall first baseman scoring.
Josue Briceño– DET
Expected Projection: .239/20.0 HR/0.8 SB/24.8 K%/9.8 BB%
Score: 22.5
Josue Briceño’s score came in shockingly low. Briceno missed most of the 2026 season with an injury and struggled in 42 games after returning. Briceno’s struggles in what amounts to a lost season do not play a huge role in this projection. Briceno does not run, and his ultra-patient approach can get him in trouble with strikeouts at times. He emphasizes pulling the ball and getting it in the air, which is great for his home run totals, but not his batting average. Briceno has also posted pedestrian HR/FB rates throughout most of his career. This points to good, but not game-changing power. The model found him to be very overrated
James Tibbs III– LAD
Expected Projection: .251/25.4 HR/8.1 SB/26.9 K%/11.9 BB%
Score: 49.2
James Tibbs III is known as a “three true outcomes” prospect. That is not entirely false. He has 30 home run upside, has a 30% strikeout floor, and walks a ton. However, his hit tool is not as some make it out to be. Tibbs posted a 73.4% contact rate last season. He only struck out 23.8% of the time on the season and 19.8% from July 8 forward. A low batting average with strikeouts is accounted for in his floor projection, but the progression he has made throughout his short professional career gives me more confidence than not that he will become a reliable dynasty asset. He finished with a 62% confidence score and a very respectable 49.2 overall grade.
Ike Irish– BAL
Expected Projection: .265/19.8 HR/13.5 SB/23.3 K%/9.3 BB%
Score: 53.4
The model really likes Ike Irish. His 55.1 score lands second at the position. The stolen bases stand out in his projection. Unlike most first basemen, Irish is expected to steal 10+ bases. He stole 20 last season with a ceiling projection of 16. Beyond that, his profile is nothing flashy. He has solid pop and is likely to hit 15-25 home runs, depending on whether he can consistently get the ball in the air. He has a strong hit tool with good plate discipline. Irish is a safe profile with some stolen base upside most first basemen lack.
Luke Adams– MIL
Expected Projection: .235/19.0 HR/8.5 SB/21.0 K%/11.0 BB%
Score: 34.4
At times, Luke Adams looks like one of the most underrated prospects in baseball. However, there is a lot of volatility in his profile. Adams lacks elite speed, but has also stolen 30 bases in the past. His steals have decreased from 30 down to 8 last season. He should steal a handful of bases, but the ceiling is not what it once projected to be. In terms of power, Adams has consistently shown off elite exit velocities and great HR/FB metrics. Despite this, Adams has never hit more than 16 home runs in a season. Adams has all of the tools to turn into a fantasy-relevant prospect, but just needs to put everything together (and stay healthy).
Andrew Fischer– MIL
Expected Projection: .231/31.2 HR/5.8 SB/30.9 K%/11.4 BB%
Score: 40.8
Andrew Fischer is a polarizing prospect. On one end, his power his game-changing. Fischer cleared the 40-home run threshold in his first full professional season. His ceiling projection for home runs leads the position, and even his expected production is 30+ home runs. As can be seen from his expected projection, there is also a lot of hit tool risk. Fischer has a ton of swing-and-miss in his profile. He is patient, works deep counts, and should be expected to strike out 30+ percent of the time. The walks will save his on-base percentage. His value is higher in those formats. The expectation should be a lot of walks with a lot of home runs. Even with the risk to his batting average and high strikeout rate, Fischer still scores a 40.8 on the model.
Blake Burke– MIL
Expected Projection: .229/24.5 HR/9.6 SB/28.8 K%/7.4 BB%
Score: 30.9
Blake Burke is Andrew Fischer-lite. From a projection standpoint, there are a lot of similarities. Burke is going to strike out a lot. He does not have the same level of swing-and-miss as Fischer does, but he also has much more chase in his profile. Burke has also shown off impressive power with consistently above-average HR/FB rates. While the raw power is not quite at the level of Fischer, he should be expected to hit 20+ home runs. The one key difference is Burke’s expected stolen bases. Burke does not grade out as having elite speed, but it is impossible to ignore his 44 steals over the last two seasons. He is not going to steal 20+ bases, but he does have a sneaky amount of ceiling in this category. Burke is a fine, but not elite, deep-league prospect.
Taitn Gray– TBR
Expected Projection: .259/15.6 HR/8.0 SB/24.4 K%/7.2 BB%
Score: 32.0
Taitn Gray’s value is fueled by projection. At 6’4″, Gray has substantial raw power in his profile. He has a quick swing that makes it reasonable to project 25 home runs in a season. The issue is that his raw power does not currently translate to game power. Gray hits too many ground balls. This current issue gives him a floor of far fewer home runs than his raw power suggests. Still only 19 years old, Gray scored only a 40% confidence level. This brings down his overall score despite having the fifth-highest ceiling projection amongst first basemen.
Jonathon Long– MIA
Expected Projection: .252/19.2 HR/2.2 SB/22.1 K%/10.7 BB%
Score: 32.6
Jonathon Long turns 25 in January and lacks much volatility between his floor and ceiling projections. Long is not going to steal many bases. What Long will do is work counts, take walks, and post solid contact rates. He projects to run solid batting averages, but never win a batting title. Long has good power. However, his swing and approach are not designed to drive the ball out of the park. He hits a lot of line drives and sprays the ball to all fields. Over a full season, he is likely to land somewhere between 15 and 25 home runs. Long’s score of 32.6 points to his relative stability compared to most other prospects.
Alirio Ferrebus- PHI
Expected Projection: .226/14.5 HR/4.4 SB/23.3 K%/5.1 BB%
Score: 6.0
During a breakout 2026 season, Alirio Ferrebus showed off the tools that lead to an interesting ceiling projection. Ferrebus has plus raw power. Ferrebus also posted contact rates north of 80% throughout the season. However, Ferrebus also has some major weaknesses. He chases way too much. This leads to weak contact and far too many ground balls. These flaws, combined with his age (21 years old already), push his confidence score down to 35%. His final score is an underwhelming 6.0; the lowest amongst the 15 first basemen ranked.
Myles Bailey– CHC
Expected Projection: .223/20.5 HR/1.1 SB/31.0 K%/9.1 BB%
Score: 8.6
The 75th overall pick in the 2026 Draft, Myles Bailey, is yet to play in a professional game. This suppresses his confidence score and thus his overall score. At his ceiling, Bailey has 30+ home run pop. 6’4″ with a powerful left-handed swing, Bailey hits some majestic home runs. However, his swing can also get long at times, and there is plenty of risk that Bailey strikes out too much to ever make the home run ceiling worth the investment. Bailey’s confidence and projection will be updated once we see how his skills translate to the pros.
Tony Blanco Jr. Jr- PIT
Expected Projection: .231/24.5 HR/0.8 SB/32.3 K%/8.1 BB%
Score: 16.8
Tony Blanco Jr. Jr could be a 35-homer bat. He also could strike out 35% of the time. That is the ceiling and floor argument here. Blanco is a simple prospect to project. The power is incredible and the contact skills are poor. If he can keep his strikeout rate under 30%, he could turn into a Major League slugger. Where things stand, I am skeptical that happens. Blanco’s profile carries plenty of risk. He finishes with a 38% confidence level and a 16.8 final score.
Tre’ Morgan– TBR
Expected Projection: .250/16.7 HR/4.8 SB/26.2 K%/6.8 BB%
Score: 21.7
After multiple seasons of high contact rates, strong walk rates, and impressive batting averages, Tre’ Morgan adjusted his approach to hit for more power. The home run rates increased, but his contact rate plummeted, his chase rate increased, and he has completely stopped running. So, which Tre’ Morgan is the real Tre’ Morgan? This uncertainty keeps his confidence level down at 45%. On one hand, if he combines this new ability to hit for power with his old contact skills, fantasy managers could have a .275 hitter with 20 home runs. On the flip side, his floor is now much lower than it was before. A .240 hitter with 14 homers and no stolen bases is not an enticing option. Morgan is a fascinating prospect to keep tabs on in 2027.
Comparison
The table below outlines the comparison between rankings and the score.
Unlike shortstop and third base, there was no consensus at the top. Charlie Condon led the way entering this exercise, but Josiah Hartshorn finished with the model’s highest score. Although Condon projects to hit more home runs, Hartshorn provides a more complete profile with a better hit tool, more speed, and less risk in the strikeout department. After just one season, Hartshorn should rank higher than he was at the end of 2026.
The model really loved Ike Irish. His end-of-season Prospect List ranking was already aggressive, but this model suggests it was not high enough. Yes, the model loved that Irish is a balanced profile. He is good at a lot of things, but not particularly great at anything. However, as mentioned in the “math section,” this model weights each position differently. For first baseman, the model gives bonuses to prospects who project to steal bases. The purpose of this is to baseline production for each position. It is easier to find shortstops that can steal 15 bases than first basemen. The model loves that Irish’s expected stolen base total is 13.5 (the highest at the position). Is this fair to push him up that far based on only 13.5 stolen bases? Probably not, but it is helpful that the model recognizes the value added compared to others at this position.
The two players that stood out the most in the “overranked” category were Josue Briceño and Alirio Ferrebus. Briceno in particular scored an underwhelming 22.5. Part of the issue is that Briceno’s 2026 season is factored heavily into his profile. Briceno was injured for the majority of the season and then struggled upon returning. However, the model does a good job of pointing out that Briceno lacks any speed, has some hit tool risk, and has yet to show difference-making power. That combines for an underwhelming profile. For Ferrebus, his aggressive approach produces a lack of confidence and suppresses his score.
My Takeaways:
Prospects who should be ranked higher:
Prospects who should be ranked lower:
- Josue Briceño and Alirio Ferrebus
