SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 5/13 & 5/14

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• Despite having Corbin Burnes ranked higher than Jack Flaherty on The List, the two are swapped on Thursday as I anticipate Burnes getting a shorter leash after sitting on the COVID-IL. This should be a wonderful game and you should watch it.
• Here’s to hoping Trevor Rogers continues his breakout tour and earns himself an AGA label as he faces the Diamondbacks.

 

• The top three of the second tier are debatable first-tier plays as they all have the ability to take advantage of their weak lineups ahead. Cristian Javier is getting whiffs on his breaker again, Jameson Taillon could even take a step further as his slider develops, and Anthony DeSclafani has proven himself well capable against mediocre lineups.
• Sean Manaea is displaying increased velocity and effective changeups as of late and while an easier opponent would propel him to a higher rank, I’d still have confidence against the Red Sox.

 

• It’s been a lovely run for Michael Pineda since the start of 2020 and even against a strong ChiSox crew, as long as his slider is working, he should be okay.
• Logan Gilbert is getting the call today and he’s in an excellent situation to excel as he gets Cleveland. Still, we don’t know how long he’ll go and MLB debuts often come with a bit of nerves. This isn’t a lock for success, at all.

 

• Thursday’s streaming pick of the day is Garrett Richards, who has recently pumped the zone with fastballs as he becomes a more efficient pitcher. Surprisingly, he’s done so without his excellent slider and there’s a decent chance it reappears against Oakland for an overwhelming evening.
• The more I think about Daniel Lynch starting against Detroit, the more my gut tells me he’ll steal the spotlight. He has yet to showcase the fastball command listed on his scouting report and after a nerve-laden MLB debut and a horrific first frame, we could see a more comfortable Lynch mow down Tigers with his wipeout slider. Don’t overlook this.

 

• At the bottom of the third tier is Patrick Corbin, who many will likely do everything they can to avoid. Despite his lack of slider whiffs lately, he’s been shockingly decent and could make out with another Quality Start as he hosts the Phillies.
• Merrill Kelly is the deep streaming option as the Marlins are looking awfully flummoxed. There’s plenty of risk – it’s Kelly, after all – but there are worse deep options.

 

• In the bottom tier, it’s weird to see a guy who was drafted as a Top 15 starter down here but I doubt many will protest sitting Luis Castillo. He’s heading to Coors, y’all.
• It’s sad to see Ross Stripling this far down as he’s finally has a secure rotation spot, but Atlanta is great against right-handers and Stripling hasn’t found his form yet.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s a wild day with a ton of aces and plenty of…not aces. It’s a large first tier with only a few possible hesitations. Sandy Alcantara gets a true test against the Dodgers and after awarding him the AGA label, I did so as a statement that I’m starting him regardless of the opponent. His skill set is worth your time.
• Zack Greinke is also someone who may get a bit of resistance after lasting just four innings in each of his last four starts, however he now faces the Rangers and should coast for the evening. His ability to go deep into games with a handful of strikeouts is far from gone.

 

• It’s a very small second tier, highlighting the gap of talent going on Friday. It’s a double-header between the ChiSox and Royals, allowing Michael Kopech to get another start. While a five-inning start seems like the ceiling for volume, his quality per inning is high enough that he’s likely not to hurt you for trusting him in your rotation.
• Frankie Montas also gets the call despite a questionable date with Minnesota. His fastball is looking like 2019, though, and I trust his slider and splitter to do enough to make this outing worthwhile.

 

• I had a tough time ranking the arms in Tier 3 and it came down to who is performing the best at the moment – Tyler Anderson. The Giants have quickly become notorious for taking down southpaws, but hopefully Anderson can defy trends and continue his path of success.
• Tarik Skubal is the streaming play of the day after much debate and I wonder if that splitter will return to be a legit #2 offering as he faces a volatile Cubs lineup. I’m not a huge fan of jumping at this one, but all of the names here induce sway.

 

• Let’s talk about some of these Tier 3 options. Griffin Canning could be getting that feel for his slider and curveball and endure a start against Boston. Chris Flexen has a great matchup, but is incredibly inconsistent with his cutter. Steven Matz’s had his Vargas Rule come to end a few starts ago and the Phillies are tough. Matt Shoemaker had his slider back last time but it could disappear again.
• There’s also Johan Oviedo who has solid stuff and I’m waiting for the command to catch up. Against the Padres is normally an auto-bench, but with Tatis, Hosmer, and Myers likely still out on the COVID-IL, this could be a team to stream against.

 

• In the bottom tier, it feels weird to see a guy in Tier 4 after just throwing a no-hitter, but Wade Miley is heading to Coors. You know you don’t want that.
• Jakob Junis gets a start after getting demoted to the bullpen and I’m not interested as he’s likely not stretched out + the White Sox can swing a mean lumber.

 

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