With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 42-31
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s odd seeing a starter head into Coors and stick as the #1 starter of the day, but it’s hard to argue against Yu Darvish’s rank for Tuesday. You should have confidence he’ll pass the test with flying colors.
- At the bottom of the top tier are Taijuan Walker and Luis Castillo, who both are given little reason not to trust them in decent matchups. Castillo hasn’t gotten the changeup whiffs back, but he’s throwing hard and gets a middling Brewers lineup, while Walker has been flat-out fantastic.
- Despite facing the Astros, you can’t deny Kyle Gibson’s ability to succeed regardless of his opponent. Until he hits that major wall, we’re riding this train.
- Casey Mize lands in the second spot as he’s done well with both his slider and fastball across the last few weeks. I’m skeptical that they can both perform this well through the full season, but he’s well worth the gamble against the Royals.
- Lance McCullers is returning for the Astros and will be limited as Jake Odorizzi follows. I’d rather start Jake of the two as he’ll have a great chance at a Win, though McCullers should be started as I expect his quality of inning to be worth your time.
- Frankie Montas has been a solid play with 97+ mph fastballs and a slider that has begun to earn whiffs. Hopefully his splitter will be the next to take the step forward, while the Angels aren’t a major deterrent to hold back Montas along the journey.
- It’s a massive third tier as we’re served a mix of poor matchups to generally productive arms & great matchups for pitchers who give us hesitation. Leading off is Mike Minor who looks like a Tier 2 play with a date against Detroit, but his recent performance was a product of pristine command, command I’m not sure will return against the Tigers.
- Andrew Heaney is as volatile of a pitcher you’ll find and despite two straight successes, his legit Cherry Bomb label makes us wonder what we’ll see against Oakland. If you need strikeouts, go for it.
- Shane McClanahan got roughed up last time out + he gets the White Sox + he still hasn’t gone six innings. I love the stuff, but the ceiling is capped and the floor is…icky.
- The streaming pick of the day is Sammy Long, who showcased a lovely curveball against the Rangers paired with a 93 mph heater from the left side. I question how many innings he’ll get and if his repertoire is enough to ensure a quality performance, but he’s the best of the options available on Tuesday.
- It’s sad to see Patrick Corbin facing the Pirates and not placing him in the second tier, but sadly Corbin hasn’t had the velocity nor slider whiffs as of late. Here’s to a start that reinvigorates our adoration.
- There’s a tough matchup between Atlanta and Boston featuring Tucker Davidson and Eduardo Rodriguez. Tucker is a solid streaming option, but against the Red Sox, I have hesitation. Rodriguez hasn’t been locked in with his fastball/changeup all year, and Atlanta can take advantage. Both have the ceiling of six frames with a good amount of strikeouts, though, granting them the bottom spots of the third tier.
- In the final tier, Cal Quantrill could be impressive enough to warrant your trust in a deep league against Baltimore, but I’d avoid in all but desperate situations.
- Save for Chris Flexen, whose cutter had a moment in the sun, and just isn’t the consistent pitch you want it to be.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Welcome to another ace day as Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and plenty more of the Top 30 battle it out on Wednesday. There are some tough matchups here, but don’t overthink it. Start your studs.
- Aaron Civale and Zack Greinke make it into the top tier as they get a pair of wonderful dates in the Orioles and Rangers. Let them fly.
- In the second tier, we’re all feeling confident with Anthony DeSclafani fresh off his complete-game shutout against the Nationals. The Sneks aren’t a team to fear and more production should be on its way.
- Brady Singer isn’t my favorite arm to hold through the year, but against the Tigers? Sure, he’s more likely than not to give you a beneficial evening.
- In the third tier is our streaming pick of the day, Merrill Kelly. His velocity was past 93 mph last time out and the Giants in Oracle Park makes for a solid matchup as a right-hander.
- Bailey Ober is an interesting option as he faces the lowly Mariners. I’m not in love with his repertoire, but there’s enough here to consider as a stream vs. Seattle.
- It’s tough to see Blake Snell at the bottom of the tier, but he’s been incredibly volatile + Coors is, well, Coors.
- Griffin Canning had his breakers last time out and I’m hoping he’s able to keep the momentum against the Athletics on Wednesday. There’s still risk here as the A’s can put up runs in a heartbeat.
- In the final tier, Keegan Akin and Johan Oviedo lead off as they have a small chance to capitalize against Cleveland and Miami. I don’t have enough confidence to remove their “Do Not Start” labels, but I’d consider them in deeper leagues.
- Ross Stripling and Garrett Richards once again start on the same day and have to deal with a considerable offense that lowers their chances of potential success. I’d avoid them both.
Photo by Tom Hagerty | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)