With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 48-38
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- More of the same in the top tier as Kevin Gausman and Walker Buehler are still clear plays despite tougher matchups. Gausman’s splitter is just that filthy and Beuhler’s four-seamer sets a beautiful foundation for production.
- Charlie Morton and José Urquidy sneak in at the bottom as they have favorable matchups and are certainly capable of taking advantage. If you’re rostering them, you’re absolutely starting them.
- Keep in mind, yesterday’s Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins game was postponed, pushing Lucas Giolito and Kenta Maeda into today’s rankings, displacing Dylan Cease and Bailey Ober into tomorrow.
- In the second tier, Rich Hill hasn’t been at his peak lately, though the Nationals aren’t scary and Hill can easily power through another 5+ innings to boost your numbers early in the week.
- The streaming pick of the day is Joe Ross as he meets the Rays in D.C. Ross has displayed the ability to go deep into games when his slider is working and the only hesitation is if he can command that sweeper for a full game. Let’s hope he can.
- Speaking of wishes, Blake Snell could use a few pennies in the well as he aims to repeat his dominance from last week against the Dodgers. However, pitching in Cincinnati is no easy feat, and he still carries the dreaded Cherry Bomb label. Be careful.
- I would love to feel confident in Caleb Smith against the Cardinals, but he’s still struggling to find his slider and changeup + he’s fluctuated between 90-92 mph a bit too much. The Cards have been terrible, so he gets the third-tier spot for now.
- Last outing was one of Nick Pivetta’s best as he looked smooth at times with four-seamers up and breakers down. It rarely comes with consistency through the entire start, though, and it’s still a coin flip if we’ll get 5-6 productive frames, even against the Royals.
- I’m excited to see more of Tony Santillan, though I’m disappointed to see it’ll be against the Padres. Too much risk for this old man.
- The same goes for Tylor Megill, who gets a date with Atlanta and I’d rather not take the chance.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Despite his rough patch, a spot outside the Top 25 of The List, and a removal of his AGA label, Aaron Nola claims the top spot for Wednesday as he faces the Marlins. He’s fresh off a 12-strikeout game and is situated to continue his redemption tour back into the Top 20 arms.
- Chris Bassitt and Luis Garcia aren’t too familiar with the top tier, but with their cushy dates, you won’t find managers forcing them to ride the bench.
- I placed Max Fried at the bottom of the tier as he returns from a short IL stint. There’s a touch of confusion as to how much Fried will throw, while it also could be an interruption of his rhythm. Still start him, but not as confidently as his Top 25 SP rank would suggest.
- Shohei Ohtani and Joe Musgrove each have a somewhat difficult matchup but are simply too good to sit.
- In the second tier, it’s just one man. I completely grasp hesitation with Dylan Cease as he gets the Twins. He’s fallen a bit out of his slider command as of late and it may linger against a Minnesota lineup who can punish mistakes. The season-long track record is too much to ignore, though.
- There’s an argument that Jon Gray could belong inside the second tier as well, though he’s my reluctant streaming pick of the day and settles in the third tier as he has to face the Pirates in Coors. Keep in mind, his heater was a blistering 96 mph last time out – he was averaging ~94 before his injury.
- Inside that third tier sits Steven Matz, who is returning from a COVID-IL stint and easing back into the role with a matchup against the Mariners. I want to raise him into the second tier, but we just don’t know what to expect.
- Domingo German has been far from the sneaky-good rock we’ve wanted him to be, though the upside is still there to pull off six frames with a collection of strikeouts. The Angels are shockingly good despite missing Trout and enduring a mediocre version of Rendon, making this one of the more volatile starts of the night.
- In the bottom tier, it’s a lot of decent arms with poor matchups or arms I wouldn’t trust at the moment regardless of the opponent. Cal Quantrill isn’t in a good place in his development to trust against the Tigers, for example, nor am I going after David Peterson despite looking decent last time out as he gets Atlanta.
- One of the more intriguing names here is Kwang Hyun Kim, who gets a lackluster Arizona lineup but has seen his pitch-counts vary wildly across the last month. Now coming off a short IL stint, we may not see a high pitch count, once again.
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