With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 51-39
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Yu Darvish is the obvious #1 play as he should continue his 2021 dominance against the Phillies. That cutter and arsenal depth is just too good.
- Take note that Sandy Alcantara is starting today instead of Sunday and should be trsuted against Atlanta.
- Look at Jake Odorizzi, claiming the #5 spot on the ranks as he gets a date with Cleveland. He’s featuring elevated four-seamers like the good ole days and is stretched out long enough to go six frames at this point for a winning club. It’s what you want.
- Tarik Skubal and Shane McClanahan brings similar skill sets to the table – great stuff with a touch of polish left to add – and each face strong opponents. I’m leaning Skubal with his long track record of success and volume this year, though I’m willing to take the chance with both despite the difficulty.
- With last night’s rainout, Jordan Montgomery is slotted to start today against the Mets. Make sure he’s in your lineups.
- Dallas Keuchel has had rough patches this year, but you have to start him against the Tigers, at least for the solid chance at a Win (stupid Skubal).
- The streaming pick of the day goes to Kyle Muller, a risky play as he’s only made two starts this season. I’m conflicted here as he does get the Marlins and his stuff speaks to a climb up the ranks, but we have to consider the incredibly small sample of success, his questionable command, and how the Marlins have actually messed up some quality pitchers as of late. I’m still a fan, but it’s not a clear-cut play.
- Ross Stripling is likely another popular play and sadly I’m concerned as his secondary pitches have only succeeded in one start this season – his evening against the Yankees three starts ago. It could come crashing down against the Rays.
- It’s a solid matchup for Marco Gonzales against the Rangers and it could be more momentum in the direction of trusting Marco once again.
- Alex Cobb was once a streaming option and could be a desperate one if it’s a bleak weekend ahead. His splitter has been frequently on point, though his arsenal has done little to support it. Let’s hope he can make it work.
- In the final tier, Eric Lauer and Jordan Lyles are outside shots at capitalizing against weak offenses. We’ve seen both stumble even when granted these advantages in the past, but they are serviceable throws of the dice if needed.
- The same goes for Kyle Freeland, who has had a moment of bliss lately and gets a Cardinals offense that has struggled more than any squad out there.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Yes, I’m still ranking Gerrit Cole atop the rankings despite the spin rates and stuttering performance as of late. His stuff and command are still excellent and look for him to dominate a middling Mets crew. This is the third day I’ve said this as Cole keeps getting pushed back with the rain. YOU GOT THIS COLE.
- Anthony DeSclafani jumps into the top tier as managers should feel confident with Tony Disco when he’s not facing a top tier offense. He’s done everything to make us feel great about starting him versus the Sneks.
- The second tier is short and leads off with Marcus Stroman, who should find his groove again after an odd start enduring hip soreness. I’d let him fly given how well he’s performed this year.
- German Marquez makes for a tough denial after nearly tossing a no-hitter in Coors last time out. The Cardinals are arguably worse than the Pirates at the moment, too.
- I’m still on the Patrick Sandoval train as he gets a solid matchup against the Orioles. If he has both his changeup and slider, this could be deadly.
- There have been few more quietly consistent than Wade Miley this season and I don’t see many managers turning away a Sunday start from the Cincy southpaw.
- The third tier is…incredibly difficult to navigate. It normally is the hardest one to rank, but man this one is filled with desperate options for your Sundays and there are so many pitchers who could go either way in this one. Good luck, seriously, we all need it.
- With that out of the way, let’s start with Blake Snell, Kyle Hendricks, and Kenta Maeda, all of which drafted inside the Top 30 SP and are now hoping to redeem themselves in the second half. Snell is expected to start from his mini-IL stint with an illness, but we don’t know if he’ll be able to produce like his last game of 0 ER in five frames. Maeda was a disaster against the White Sox and even facing the Royals still brings massive hesitation.
- The next mini-tier is Zach Thompson, Caleb Smith, and James Kaprielian. Thomspon had a wonderful cutter and fastball command last weekend and could bring it for a difficult matchup against Atlanta. Smith hasn’t been locked in with a 92 mph heater, slider, and changeup yet and I’m not sure he can get there against the Giants (he’s my reluctant streamer of the day, oh no), and Kaprielian has a solid skillset with fastball/slider, but the Red Sox are no joke.
- Mike Foltynewicz isn’t someone I’d generally recommend, but he survived the Athletics earlier in the week and now could keep the momentum against a weaker Mariners crew. Folty isn’t a consistent arm, though, so proceed with heavy caution.
- Then there’s also Nick Pivetta, who still has electric stuff, but struggles to execute it with every pitch. This is your high strikeout upside play.
- Tyler Anderson, Chris Flexen, and Tylor Megill are another mini-tier as Anderson and Flexen are a pair of highly volatile arms who could give you a QS against weak teams. Megill, on the other hand, has a decent skill set as he fanned eight against Atlanta last time out. So. Much. Risk.
- Finally, it’s Joe Ross, Matt Manning, and Brad Keller, who all have poor matchups and have expressed better days in the past. We’ve seen Ross have a pair of disaster starts this year, including one against the Dodgers, so that’s a clear side-step if you can. Manning and Keller are each fresh off their own apocalypses (Apocolypsi?) but have the ability to rebound and succeed, even against strong clubs.
- And last but not least, is the fourth tier. Vince Velasquez is a desperate grab for strikeouts, but this shouldn’t end well against the Padres. Ryan Yarbrough hasn’t brought a ton of upside and gets paired with the Jays, I’d avoid. Michael King may be the bulk guy for the Yankees today and likely won’t provide quality innings, Cal Quantrill has shown nothing of value and gets the Astros, and Carlos Martinez, well, he gets Coors.
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