Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 4/11: Pivetta Quest 10

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Nick Pivetta (SDP) vs COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 88 pitches.

Is this the year Nick Pivetta finally has a season ERA under 4.00? He certainly helped the effort on Friday night with a “Gold Goal” in San Diego as he hosted Rockie Road and sported a glorious line of 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 88 pitches (W). Blame it on the Rockies all you want, starts like these are the reason you drafted Pivetta in the first place.

I’ll continue to express concern about Pivetta’s sweeper/four-seamer combination to RHB and his relentless four-seamer + sinker attack to LHB down the middle of the plate fails to instill the confidence you want from an outing like this. That four-seamer’s 51% CSW isn’t sustainable, which masked an usually terrible 40% strike rate on his curveball, and once again I ask, what is different?

Maybe the sinker addition makes an impact, maybe we see more than five cutters in a start. I still worry we’ll see the four-seamer get hit plenty by RHB over time without enough stellar command to make the two-pitch approach (fastball/breaker for each side of the plate) repel longballs. For now, in cushy San Diego, we hold and hope for the best.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:

 

Andre Pallante (STL) vs PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.

Would you look at that. Andre 3K + 1 silenced the Phillies with his cut-fastball doing all kinds of work to LHB and his slider + sinker against RHB. That latter pair did so despite a near 50% strike rate between them and I still worry about Pallante’s lack of electricity and velocity (not 95 anymore, we’re back to 93 mph territory), but I gotta give the man credit. You’re performing far better than the man we saw in March and that’s cool.

Jose Quintana (MIL) @ ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 80 pitches.

Wow. The Brewers needed a savior in their rotation and Quintana appeared with shining lights, holding his Gold Star, ignoring how tight his straps are as they belayed him down from the rafters. Yes, Koufax did a number on this one, but the changeup and sinker were located well to RHB and this generally looked like old Quintana. More mistakes than usual and rare four-seamers + curves, but generally, this is how he does it. I’d have some concern against the Tigers simply because of how fortunate he was here, but sure, give it a ride in a 15-teamer. Let’s be tepid in 12-teamers with the floor being awfully low.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Yamamoto was absurd with his splitter and four-seamer down-and-away to LHB and yes, I’ll continue to yell at him for not elevating his heater against RHB, but to LHB? I get it. Dotting the corner makes for a stupid game of chicken that sets up that gorgeous splitter. I just wish I liked the curve a bit more (55% strikes) or the cutter was a bit more refined. There was a larger emphasis on sinkers to RHB, though, and despite low horizontal break, I was happy to see the mix-up pitch involved. Every little bit helps.

Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs KCR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.

Hey Nick, you said this guy was good. What is this. Yes, the one time I was actually in on Bibee, he’s failed to live up to his promise. Now three starts in after food poisoning, Bibee has yet to find the feel for his cutter – the one pitch that took the wheel last year and steered him toward glory. Just a 50% strike rate with 3/20 whiffs ain’t it, while the ole reliable heater failed to find its typical strikes, sitting just above the zone a bit too often. It happens, he’ll be better. Buy low if you can.

David Festa (MIN) vs DET (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 64 pitches.

Well hot dang, look at you! I was out on Festa here as he flexed poor feel for his slider in the minors + I expected a low pitch count without a high ceiling and while the latter was true, he certainly produced in his limited time. He has the changeup to thank with nearly all of them coming against LHB and landing in the lower half at 42% CSW, while the four-seamer and slider still lack the command I’ve been begging Festa to feature since his initial MLB debut. I’m not as encouraged as others that Festa is worth the FAAB splash with Atlanta up next and the same concerns from last year carrying into 2025. Yes, Zebby looks like the more polished pitcher at this time and worth your FAAB attention.

Taj Bradley (TBR) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.

Okay Bradley, whatever. The splitter was terrible, curves were meh, and his cutter command was highly suspect, making this mostly a “Please four-seamer, I need you” outing and here we are. He’s a HIPSTER and we just don’t know what we’re going to get on a given night.

Davis Martin (CHW) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.

Ahhhh, there’s the ceiling for Martin. The kick-change was much better at 7/23 whiffs and the heater was able to sneak by at a 71% strike rate + cutters held a magical 46% CSW with exclusive usage to LHB. It’s all fine and I’m still not encouraged to chase this with any regularity. Two first names, right? And two last names. WHOA. DOUBLE AGENT. 

Bryce Miller (SEA) vs TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 100 pitches.

This is certainly better, but are you pumping your fist in celebration? The four-seamer is back to its old ways of heavy usage + sinkers injecting as a mix-up pitch to RHB (this is good), but the breakers are still lagging behind. At least the splitter has some moments against LHB? I know, I’m spinning the same dang record on your grandfather’s vinyl player, but at what point do we just accept he can’t spin the ball and cap his ceiling accordingly? I’m not saying we should, just wondering when would be appropriate.

Robbie Ray (SFG) @ NYY (W) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.

Many benched Ray given the lineup and horrid weather (concluded after six = Win for Ray despite four frames) and you should be pleased to see him fight through the conditions to feature so many sliders. 70% breakers to LHB is some sort of record and for a throwaway game, a Win, low ERA, and seven strikeouts is a lovely return. Ignore the walks, this was weird.

Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs MIL (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.

After his ridiculous strikeout affair, Erod was more like his normal self here against the Brewers. Great cutters and changeups to RHB with low sinkers and sliders to LHB + four-seamers in-between. He pitched well, got the generally expected result, and we move on. If this is your jam, sure, keep holding the fella.

Kris Bubic (KCR) @ CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.

The fun continues! But a 1.33 WHIP. I SAID IT CONTINUES DANGIT. The heater added an extra tick of vert at 19″ with 92 mph velocity while the changeup churned outs incessantly to RHB in the lower half of the zone. It wasn’t the best day for fastball and breaker locations, though, with many mistakes on both slider and sweeper, while the four-seamer struggled to go upstairs per usual, but that changeup tied it all together. Now the real test comes: The Yankees. I’m inclined to play that safe, but I also want to ride it out. Let’s have fun.

Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs WSN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 79 pitches.

He’s back! And throwing more sliders! 22% sliders for 71% strikes is so great to see as he pulled the fastball usage down to 28% overall – sinkers to RHB, four-seamers to LHB (mostly). I wish the changeup and curve chould have been a little better at earning strikes, but the former was precise down low and simply didn’t get as many chases as you wants – When you throw 44% changeups to LHB, they see the low pitch and expect it to be the changeup falling out of it. Maybe a little different mix wouldn’t be such a terrible thing. ANYWAY, the blister is seemingly fixed + the slider lean against RHB (42%!) is so welcome. He’s been volatile since, I dunno, forever, and that makes me cautious to pick him up, especially against the Sneks next, though I feel like this is different. 42% sliders to RHB just isn’t normal.

Aaron Nola (PHI) @ STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.

Four walks from Nola?! Blame the low strike rate curveball and lack of chases on the changeup + cutter, but dang, that’s weird. He also sat 89.8 mph on the sinker (91.2 mph on the four-seamer, BUT STILL) and despite how much I want to say the command and approach is strong, there’s always something making me feel uncomfortable about Easy-A. I know you feel it too.

Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs LAA (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.

Trout got to one of his high heaters for a solo shot and he was otherwise great with the BSB in effect. Weird to see curves taking over far more than his slider, you know, the pitch that guided him through a breakout 2024 season, but hey, it worked and I love the high precision on the 19″ vert four-seamer. I still wish he threw more changeups (18% usage to LHB, just 6% to RHB), but who cares.

Sean Newcomb (BOS) @ CHW (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.

Even against the White Sox, Newcomb went just four frames at a 2.00 WHIP. Let that sink in, just like the current visual of the Oldcomb in the trash ocean.

Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.

A PQS isn’t the greatest against the Marlins, but it was value and value is cool. He still needs to locate a bit better – four-seamers far too hittable and splitters were either excellent or lofted – but the slider is strong against LHB and there’s promise if he can just locate better. I can see this working in time as I telepathetically tell Parker to throw harder than 92 mph. Ohhhhh, great idea boss!

Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.

Boyd Boyz, celebrate. A PQS with a decent WHIP and seven strikeouts against the Dodgers is glorious, especially on a night where the slider went just 48% strikes (yeeeesh). The slowball got a bit too much of the plate against RHB but kept them decently off the fastball and at least the good sliders got whiffs. Like a collection of Supermans defining their character, we good.

Brady Singer (CIN) vs PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.

When you see a middling night from Singer, there are two numbers to check: Sinker called strikes and slider whiffs. The former was on par at 13/38, but the latter? 3/33 slider whiffs. There’s yer problem. I also don’t love Singer abandoning the cutter, four-seamer, and sweepers we flexed early, which I believed added an extra layer of confusion and deception to amplify the sinker and slider. Sure, 20% usage across all three is relevant, but not the 25-30% we saw prior and I want it back. This wasn’t so bad Nick. HE COULD BE SO MUCH MORE. At least he hosts Seattle next.

Bailey Falter (PIT) @ CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 79 pitches.

Yeaaaaah, you can start Bailey, you’re a Free man, but I sure wouldn’t. Not until he’s on the Rays. You get it. Only then will they be able to help Falter harness his 20″ of vert at 7.2 feet of extension at 90 mph…

Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.

Jeeeez, that’s not the man we want to see, @TEA no less! You made a typo. You’ve missed some roundups. Sure, there were some poorly spotted sliders and four-seamers here, but the overall approach was on point and even at 96.3 mph, that’s an elite heater. Nick, the slider, change, and curve held poor strike rates. Very true. Despite being in the vicinity, deGrom spiked too many sliders and changeups, leading to better counts, more walks, and hittable pitches. Blegh. It happens to us all.

JP Sears (ATH) vs NYM (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 101 pitches.

Seven strikeouts is a lovely sight, but that inefficiency? Bleeeegh. You really should not be going ater Sears unless you’re desperate for strikeouts. He throws far too many mistakes and lacks the precision of a reliable starter. Sidenote: We saw 54 pitches of Spence in relief, sporting 92 mph cutters at 50% strikes and 1/11 whiff sliders. Even if he were starting instead of Ginn, he’s not ready.

Griffin Canning (NYM) @ ATH (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.

Sliders and changeups with 33% fastballs. That’s what he does. We hope for the best and many games look like this one. There isn’t anything new from last year to latch onto.

Reese Olson (DET) @ MIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.

Bleeeegh. A disappointing one here for Olson with a great matchup against the Twins. His changeup let him down as his most thrown pitch but just 46% strikes (LHB didn’t bite) and his fastballs weren’t effective per usual. The slider did what it could and had its share of mistakes as well and this is the typical floor for Olson. He gets the Brewers next and I’d still continue onward – the slider/change combo is better than this.

Bryce Elder (ATL) @ TBR (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.

Sounds about right. Elder is aptly named as his time has come with Strider returning to the rotation this week. I will remember you…DA DA DA DA DA DA. Will you remember me? Who could forget your Vargas Rule in the first half of last season? That was in 2023. Sure, whatever.

Germán Márquez (COL) @ SDP (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.

I miss the times when Márquez had the filthiest slider and curve on this side of the Baltic Sea. Going which way? Yes. But tha—At least he has interesting two-plane movement on both fastballs, but you know, this ain’t worth all these words.

Marcus Stroman (NYY) vs SFG (L) – 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 46 pitches.

Boy did he look terrible. Almost as if he was hurt and trying to power through it. Suitman whispers in my ear Oh, a knee injury? On the IL? And Allan Winans is called up? Jeez Yankees, how brutal can this get?

Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ HOU (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 86 pitches.

The dream is dead. He went back to being The Jack of One Trade with just under 70% sinkers and oddly enough, the four-seamer was hit the hardest among the lot. The rare slider and sweeper were terribly spotted as well and yeah, not a great day for Jack. How do you spell his last name? With one K, of course. HAISTBMBWT?!

 

Game of the Day

 

AJ Smith-Shaver vs. Drew Rasmussen – Can AJSS showcase good command? Do the Rays let Rasmussen go six frames?

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)