Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Parker Messick (CLE) vs BAL (W) – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 112 pitches.
We spend weeks poring over the performances of the spring, monitoring SP battles with the hope of a young arm earning a spot to hopefully make some small impact, and sometimes, we get a case like Parker Messick, who takes the job and makes all our time worthwhile. He dominated his first three outings against the Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves, before a brilliant performance against the Orioles on Thursday: 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 112 pitches (W). That’s not just a Gallows Pole. That was eight innings of a no-hitter before allowing two hits to lead off the ninth. That’s hot.
Messick is the perfect example of what I call a Frizzle. Regardless of the size of your league, it’s important to recognize the cut-off point in your draft where the available pitchers on the board shift from players you plan on holding for a while vs. those who you could conceivably drop the first week or two. Once the latter point hits, it’s in your best interest to chase those fringe arms who have a larger range of outcomes, including the potential to turn into your holds for months ahead. Messick was one of those in 12-teamers and while he’s obviously going to regress from his dazzling 1.05 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, I anticipate him as a hold all year.
Why? Because he has stellar four-seamer and changeup command. He’s a SWATCH to perfection (a well spotted high heater + elite changeup that returned 31% SwStr here), without the elite velocity of the southpaw studs in the upper ranks, though his slider, curve, and sinker are all diferent this year, even with a new cutter he’s trying to make work against RHB (even if it allowed the first hit of the game on the opening pitch of the ninth. Also, why wasn’t Messick replaced right away?!). That harder slider did a fantastic job against LHB – easing Messick’s biggest flaw, given his foundation in four-seamer/change that cruises vs. RHB. I don’t see this as a sell high. Hold and enjoy.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Chase Burns (CIN) vs SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 87 pitches.
I’m glad we’re past the struggles of his last start and it’s going to be hard to resist the AGA tag with @TBR, Rockie Road and @PIT ahead, and if he obliterates (not like this – nine whiffs? Just four strikeouts?!), I think it would be too hard to resist.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
Is it time to get hyped for Roupp? As much as I want to, I can’t. He’ll get the Dodgers + Phillies next and it was unconvincing as I watched this start go by with just seven whiffs and terrible strike rates on his sinker and changeup (50% sinker, 47% changeup and that’s for 50% of all pitches thrown. Not great.). That curve was obviously fantastic and saved the day at 43% usage, but we can’t rely on that hook carrying the full burden moving forward. He’ll get there in time, just not right now. Maybe in two weeks when he faces the Rays on May third.
Chase Dollander (COL) @ HOU (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches.
He was opened for and would you look at that, Dollander is DOPE. Why? Because he was outside of Coors and he’s improved vastly this season. Sitting 99 mph with a 1.7 HAVAA and actually locating upstairs to RHB with the four-seamer. That’s so good. The 88/89 mph slider gets 5″ more sweep than your standard gyro slide piece and the sinker’s 18″ horizontal ride gets inside a decent amount at 99 mph to generate outs. Man, this is so fun and it’s so sad he has to deal with Coors, including the Padres up next. Is this a situation where we hold Dollander just for his road games? Maybe. He’ll head to Citi Field next Sunday and even if Soto returns by then, will the vibes be back for that offense? I don’t blame anyone taking a chance on Dollander here. We may have our first worthy Colorado starter in a while.
Brandon Sproat (MIL) vs TOR (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 75 pitches.
Ahhhh, thank you Sproat. I’m happy he could throw strikes this time around and it’s nice to have at least one game I can point to that displays my upside claims. That said, I think Sproat got away with a bit here – the four-seamer wasn’t well spotted and barely used to RHB as the elevated whiff pitch (just once executed), while the sweeper and cutter were mostly hurled over the plate to RHB instead of landing in their intended spots (the sweeper had some great moments, though, don’t get me wrong). In addition, the sinker that is often his lead pitch to RHB was a wild stallion of a pitch, but there was one I loved with 2″ of vert over the plate that induced a groundout. Oh, and his curve to LHB was hot. There’s a lot to like here and I’m going to start him moving forward (this feels like a TIARA start for his confidence), but we’re not out of the woods yet. The Shag Rug is obviously still here.
Patrick Corbin (TOR) @ MIL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 79 pitches.
Among the Sproat fun, Corbin’s dominance may be lost. He cruised and I’m surprised he wasn’t allowed to get one more out with the bases empty in the sixth. He’s brought the four-seamer back for…LHB, using the sinker to RHB. Hey, Corbs, you’re a southpaw. Just want to make sure you remember that. The changeup was off and if he gets another outing (let’s say Yesavage returns next week, I expect Corbin to take Lauer’s spot), it would be against the hot Angels offense. We need more to start believing he can do this with any sort of regularity. Remember, the Brewers are without Chourio and Yelich right now.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ SDP (L) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 98 pitches.
Yay, one run. It’s also a near 2.00 WHIP with only three strikeouts. I’ll continue to bang the table that Castillo is overvalued and should be dropped for a streamer in your 12-teamers. Just 1/32 whiffs on his slider + changeup.
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs TBR (L) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 71 pitches.
He wasn’t sharp out of the gate after entering the game as a follower, and returning just 2.2 frames across 71 pitches shows that there is still polish missing from Kay’s attack. The biggest issue? His breakers, changeup, and sinker all returned strike rates of 44% or worse. Oh jeez. Yeah, he had to hammer that 96 mph heater over the plate incessantly in poor counts, and honestly, this could have been a lot worse. I don’t expect that to continue, but control has been an issue in Kay’s career, and even if he’s around the edges better than your standard high walk arms, we’re not there yet. I imagine it’ll be better against the Sneks and I’d hold in a 15-teamer (please have an opener for a higher Win chance!), though he’s just a streaming option in 12-teamers.
Brent Suter (LAA) @ NYY (ND) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 49 pitches.
This was a bullpen game for the Angels as they haven’t figured out what they want to do in Klassen’s former spot. I’m going to move on.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs WSN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
Boy do I love seeing a Gallows Pole from Ashcraft. It was a product of favoring his legit 85 mph curveball (what I believe is his best pitch) for 34% overall usage, and getting that fella low a ton. It propelled 32% whiffs (10/31!) and a 74% strike rate and if he can hold that, then I’m completely sold, even if the four-seamer lost 1.5″ of vert and an inch of ride in this one. Given that he also added an inch of sweep to the slider at a tick harder (92 mph), I wonder if there’s some small tweak at play. Or maybe his emphasis on the curveball changed his release a little. Regardless, we’re riding this against the Rangers, Cardinals, and Reds Carpet up next. How could we not? Ashcraft, please continue embarrassing me. I want every pitcher to be dope, after all.
Steven Matz (TBR) @ CHW (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
Atta boy Matz, even if the WHIP isn’t ideal. He’s become a proper SWATCH and there’s still room to grow with his slider against LHB, but at least he’s using it more this year. And guess what? Reds Carpet, Guardians, Giants are his next three starts. You’re holding with a grin.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
It’s a Dusty Donut and I feel worse about it than Matz’s outing given the four walks. I won’t get comfortable starting him until the high strikeout-to-walk ratio returns, even if there’s a chance this was due to Sacré Verde being it’s wonky self. But he heads to @TEA next! That’s pretty cool and maybe it clicks there. I dunno, I’d rather not chance it.
Walker Buehler (SDP) vs SEA (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
Wait, what. This wasn’t Rockie Road, nay, this was the Mariners away from their lovely park and we got ourselves a true Gold Star for Beuhler. The catalyst? Some luck, but he’s 1.5+ ticks up on everything. He mixed four pitches to LHB at least 15% of the time, helping him get away with filling the zone without punishment + a trio of well-executed curves under the danger zone fanned three LHB, and two sweepers away to Julio Rod earned another pair of punchouts. The rest? Koufax being a kind soul. I’m glad he was able to get to two-strikes in the first place, let alone execute the breakers effectively, and that velocity uptick is interesting, but the four-seamer isn’t destined for a 42% called strike rate, nor the sinker at a 56% called strike—wait. The Mariners got the book on Buehler’s emphasis of breaking pitches and went backwards hunting…and they clearly shouldn’t have. Funny how that works.
Ryan Weiss (HOU) vs COL (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
He had an opportunity with a high pitch count, but it’s on Weiss to throw strikes to take advantage of Rockie Road, and it was a struggle. I’m not sure if he’ll be given another chance and even if he were, he’s clearly not ready.
Jack Leiter (TEX) @ ATH (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 105 pitches.
Not too shocking in Sacré Verde for a pitcher known to struggle with consistent command. I’m down to start him against the Pirates, but do you really want to hold this HIPSTER for the Yankees after? I don’t.
Keider Montero (DET) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
We’re not sure when Verlander returns to the rotation, so we may get more of Montero past his next start against the Brewers, which is not the worst stream in a 15-teamer given that lineup’s injuries. He’s not for 12-teamers, though. His best pitch has routinely been a slider and he hasn’t found the feel for it, while relying on four-seamer/sinker a bit more than I’d like. His changeup landed under the zone just once across the 15 thrown to LHB, too. It’s precarious.
Shane Baz (BAL) @ CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
Blegh. Baz has a worse curveball and changeup this year, and while he did a better job here of finding strikes with his changeup, the curve was smacked for three hits with a low 21% CSW. His four-seamer isn’t doing its job, either, and it’s mistakes like an 0-0 heater down the pipe to JoRam that puts him further in the hole as that pitch left the yard for a bamboozling of 2 ER in the first. Once again, I feel like I’m in a purgatory with Baz, which wasn’t supposed to happen after getting removed from the horrors of George Steinbrenner field. Do we hold? I’m fine moving on. He isn’t doing anything demonstrably different this season to prove he can be a 25% strikeout arm again, which makes him look like a Toby, who isn’t as hard to hit as you want him to be.
Foster Griffin (WSN) @ PIT (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
This had a bit of Careful, Icarus with four beautiful frames until disaster struck in the fifth, capped off by a punch from Ozuna via a three-run homer. I don’t love him enough to start him against Atlanta, but the White Sox after? Sign me up. Not the worst desperate stream vs. Atlanta, too, and I’m cool with him for a two-step in a weekly.
Max Fried (NYY) vs LAA (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna get bamboozled for a two-run shot in the first, settle down, then have a Careful, Icarus in the sixth where an out, walk, weak single, double = getting pulled and all inherited runners scoring. His sinker velocity jumped here, but the real shocking thing was his four-seamer missing terribly upstairs and out of the zone. Seriously, really poorly at a 27% strike rate. He also missed with his sweeper upstairs too and he very clealy had an off day. But he’s been off all year. Uhhh, 2.97 ERA, 0.81 WHIP. You know what I mean. Sure, 18% strikeout rate and some worries about his velocity. Fried is known as a slow starter. Be thrilled he’s been so effective in his first five games.
Kris Bubic (KCR) @ DET (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. Inherited runners scored in the fifth, sure, but Bubic’s four-seamer didn’t come through for him, allowing three RBI base hits off four-seamers, while the pitch held a poor 55% strike rate and the changeup earned whiffs, but sub 60% strikes = Bubic didn’t have the backpocket ace he needed. He also sat just 91 mph across the full outing (not 92 mph) as he never got the engines going. It’s Baltimore next and let’s hope it was a One Night Bland.
Game of the Day
Jacob deGrom vs. Logan Gilbert – Yeah, this is fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
