Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Stephen Kolek (SDP) @ COL (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 104 pitches.
Just because a pitcher doesn’t have massive whiff-heavy offerings doesn’t mean they can’t have a good night. Stephen Kolek is a prime example of this after returning a shocking CGSHO in Coors Saturday afternoon – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 104 pitches (W) – and it was a prime example of “How to be effective with just a well located four-seamer & friends”.
Watching this, it felt great to see Kolek nail the edges with four-seamers and sinkers, following it up with cutters down-and-away or a changeup off the plate. Sure, there were a lot of sinkers that caught the heart of the plate, and a mix of very hittable sliders and sweepers that likely wouldn’t succeed against stronger teams, but that heater was always there to get the out or a called strike. It was methodical, graceful, and in control. So fun.
Annnnnd Blame it on the Rockies. If you made the call to start Kolek against a historically poor offense, nicely done. It’s important to note Kolek as a pitcher who can succeed if given the right circumstances given his 65% strike rate and 94/95 mph four-seamer. His date hosting the Mariners is not one of those circumstances, nor would I go through hoops to nail down the stream of Kolek the next time a situation arises (I don’t think @TOR is worthwhile, either). Just appreciate this rare CGSHO and be happy for the man.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Corbin Burnes (ARI) vs LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Burnes cutter and changeup to LHB was sublime, while he turned away from the cutter to RHB. Curves, sliders, and sinkers all split time with the cutter and it worked to surprise the Dodgers and churn outs. It felt like a trick that works for a single start – give them a different look than expected – but the pitches themselves weren’t exceptional save for good locations on his sinker inside to RHB. The curve and slider went 4/29 whiffs (meh) and the cutter is still needs more drop at 12″ of vert. At least he gets Rockie Road next. Phew.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
Yessss. We saw good command from Suárez in his return from the IL, even if the results didn’t follow, and the command stuck here. Now it’s the Pirates and you’re obviously in for that.
Shane Smith (CHW) vs MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 87 pitches.
Atta boy Shane! The changeup was disgusting to LHB and your heater sat 95 mph for nearly 90 pitches. But no Win. Yeaaaah, the White Sox are a dastardly bunch. Also, that slider wasn’t nearly as good as we’ve seen, but whatever Blame it on the Marlins. I’m really curious how it goes against the Cubs. He’s a good pitcher and it could go either way.
Brad Keller (CHC) @ NYM (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 17 pitches.
Keller opened for Cade Horton, who made his MLB debut and survived: 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 77 pitches (W). I was negative on Horton when the news came in, outlining a 95 mph four-seamer with poor extension, sub 15″ of vert, and an average HAVAA – aka Empty Velocity – mixed with a slider that seemed good, but not stellar to make up for what should be a mid fastball, and nothing else to turn to. Thing is, that’s actually spot on, except for one thing. IT’S A CUT-FASTBALL. I overlooked the horizontal cut on his four-seamer that makes it almost act as a cutter, which makes me a little more inclined to trust the outcomes of the pitch (just 0.102 xwOBAcon on 45 thrown yesterday) and grasp how he can get through games. That said, it came with 96/97 mph velocity early and tailed off later (expected for a debut) and isn’t going to miss bats. It’s an effective strike pitch that needs secondaries to support it. Horton’s curve and change tallied just five pitches between them, making the 5/27 whiff sweeper the “out” pitch. It’s good against RHB (but still hittable when over the plate), but for LHB, he needs more. In fact, all three runs came off a sweeper down-and-in to a LHB who put it over the fence. It makes for a pitcher who lacks the overall electricity I lean toward for prospects, but a greater ability to earn quick outs with an effective strike-focused fastball. With Horton’s upcoming schedule of White Sox + Marlins, you don’t have much to lose. Go for that and hope something else appears for LHB by the time we start to dread the calendar.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 106 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I’ve gotten a whole lot of questions about my last roundup of Crochet where I said “Sell, sell, sell” and I stand by that even after this. I’m not saying sell him for 50 cents on the dollar, but there is a clear issue with Crochet stemming from his reduced extension that makes him less likely to churn performances like these – he’s even said it himself that he’s not feeling quite right yet. The good news? His fastball velocity was back to near 97 mph (not sub 95! Phew) and the pitch overwhelmed in the zone as it should. The bad news? His cutter, sinker, and sweeper were a bit more hittable. Look, I’m still selling Crochet. If people disagree, that’s good. It means you can make a lateral trade and put yourself out of harm’s way of a huge red flag – the huge drop in extension. That’s the sole reason behind it. If you don’t agree, then hold! I’d sell him for a top 20 hitter wherever I could.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs PHI (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
Bibee leaned into the cutter here (yes!) and it worked for plenty of outs, even if it was just a 21% CSW. Still not the dominating version that destroys batters with cutters and sweepers + changeups, and hopefully that comes in time. First goal was nailing down the cutter as a foundational pitch.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 76 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He was nearly two ticks down, but don’t be alarmed. He was recovering from an illness and he wasn’t 100%. Let’s all be happy he got the Giants and could throw 72% four-seamers and hit the showers with a Win.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) @ PIT (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
Are things still super weird with AJSS? You betcha. Tons of middle-middle heaters and a fair amount of damage while the curve is still inconsistent and the weird floating splitter went 53% strikes. Blame it on the Pirates. There were some cool splittys in this, to be fair, and yet, I can’t be the only one perplexed by the pitch. The Pirates were, too. No, seriously. A few had more vert than some of his four-seamers, but others had fantastic drop. I guess we go for two more with back-to-back Nats games, but don’t get too enamored.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs BAL (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
The Jack of No Trade strikes again. The sinker is under 50% usage and the slider, four-seamer, and changeup he’s featuring do too little to make me interested. And look at that! He gets the Dodgers next time out. Nooooope.
JP Sears (ATH) vs NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.
Ha! For a guy who has consistently filled up the zone to RHB with sweepers and four-seamers without thought, I’m impressed he faces a scary team like the Yankees and suddenly he discovers what the shadow zone is. His changeup got surprise outs as well and LHB couldn’t do much against his sweeper and if this is what we could expect, I’d be in. I’m not holding my breath for the same against the Giants up next, but hey, it could happen.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
The slider was horrendous, but Cabrera axed the four-seamer entirely to go 71% strikes on 45% sinkers at 95 mph (not 97 mph). There’s your lower walk rate, and the changeup played off it for outs. If only the curve or that slider were actually reliable, then maybe we’d actually have something brewing. Once again, ECab shows us something different to potentially latch onto. Too bad we can’t trust it to stick and, you know, Blame it on the White Sox.
Andre Pallante (STL) @ WSN (W) – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Whoa whoa whoa, seven strikeouts?! Those Nationals really aren’t that great, huh. There were a few whiffs on fastballs that are far from typical for Andre and let’s not read much into this. The cutter (four-seamer) did its job in the zone and made up for an inconsistent set of breakers + hittable sinkers. I don’t recommend a start against the Royals next.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ MIN (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Webb’s sinker was dotted for nearly all of them save for a few that got walloped and his changeup was in prime form. I just wish the sweeper could have been there for him in a few situations. Whatever, he’s dope and makes us feel dope. Up The List you go.
Dustin May (LAD) @ ARI (L) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
May was incredible against RHB with his sinker/sweeper on opposite edges of the plate. However, there isn’t an alternative against LHB. Come on May, you have to at least try to figure out the cutter or four-seamer or something else against LHB. But he threw a four-seamer and cutter! One. Each. That counts! NO IT DOESN’T. The cutter earned a whiff in a perfect spot down-and-in and it makes you wonder why he didn’t try it more at 93/94 mph. Seriously, it keeps me up at night. Does this warrant a pickup/hold for the Angels next? I’m not sure. I don’t think May can survive just sinker/sweeper if the sinker is sitting 94/95 mph. That’s just worse Singer. Then again, it’s a winning team and look at that! Nearly seven innings because he’s allowed to do so when he’s not super inefficient. My excitement for May has dwindled relative to his velocity and enthusiasm for a wide arsenal, but they both could return.
Taj Bradley (TBR) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches.
Yeah, I’m not seeing anything too new save for the cutter being more gloveside than usual. Like that one dude from high school who never left their suburban hometown, he’s the same guy.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) vs ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
Would it be wrong to give Heaney the Gold Star? Every other success was against a poor team and even if Heaney has had moments where Koufax has his back before, he didn’t even pitch incredibly well to demand success against Atlanta. At least he had some effective curves and changeups in this one, though they looked awfully hittable at times. Andy, I can’t play with you anymore. I’m sorry.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a Golden Goal and allow his sole walk of the night on his last batter…which featured two strikes called as balls. Yeah, he’s really dope. That’s a 97/98 mph fastball with a 1.9 HAVAA. That is 100th percentile attack-angle and 99th percentile velocity. Absurd.
Tobias Myers (MIL) @ TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.
I loved Myers fastball around the edges, except for the sub-92 mph velocity paired with it. I wish there was more to pull from his slider, too, but he struggled to spot it, making this a fastball/cutter game that needed a little extra juice to end at-bats and efficiently feature five frames. We’re not there yet, but we could soon.
Bowden Francis (TOR) @ SEA (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
A bumpy fourth was the only blemish on this one as Francis cruised with his heater @TEA and found enough support with the rest of his arsenal to nearly make it through seven. I get how this can work at times, trust me, but this is starting to look like the ceiling we’re chasing, give take a run or so. Do you want to test a 92 mph heater with good vert and extension and nothing else vs. the hot hitting Tigers? I’m leaning that you don’t.
Logan Evans (SEA) vs TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
Evans’ cutter and sweeper were well spotted, but aren’t the filthiest of filth to induce whiffs to RHB, going 3/51 between both on the night (yikes). Meanwhile, the four-seamer and sinker are not strike pitches at 92/93 mph and I’m all out of things to report. Keep in mind, he didn’t get whiffs even with @TEA helping him out and a struggling Jays offense.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 98 pitches.
There’s a Dusty Donut for you. Two HRs ruined the day while the pen surrendered the lead and lost Rodón the dub. He’s getting whiffs on everything now and the four-seamer/slider combo is working as well as ever. Let it ride.
Trevor Williams (WSN) vs STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
As always, #NeverTrevor.
Cole Ragans (KCR) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna…throw too many curveballs and fail with his slider. The cutter is still not doing great, either, and this was a whole lot of changeups over the plate (13/14 strikes!) with good fastballs at 95 mph. I still wish Ragans could find the confidence in his slider and cutter as the curve shouldn’t be relied upon as the #3 pitch for strikes. We’ll see.
Tylor Megill (NYM) vs CHC (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
Yes, the Cubs aren’t fun to face, but Megill didn’t deserve greatness here. At least against RHB – he had a great four-seamer and decent change/curve to LHB. His fastballs were terribly spotted over the heart of the plate to RHB while the slider wasn’t down-and-away with a poor strike rate as we’ve seen a couple times now. And now he gets the Yankees + Fenway? Bleeeegh.
Kyle Gibson (BAL) @ LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
This is like trying to see the stars through a blurry telescope. You get a sense of what you’re trying to see, but surely there’s a better way to do this.
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs TEX (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
After awarding the AGA tag, Flaherty has since allowed 4+ ER in each of his last three starts, including this game that featured four bombs over the fence. The wild thing is that I’m still seeing great sliders and curveballs, but batters are teeing off the heater better than usual. It is a poor heater, after all, but the breakers usually nullify it better. The AGA tag is off and Cherry Bomb has been added for now. I think we can agree with that and I’d buy low if possible on Flaherty given the pair of heavy whiff pitches.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ HOU (ND) – 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 51 pitches.
Oh dear. Here I was, thinking this matchup would help Singer plenty as a sinker/slider guy. RHB should be his favorite! Instead, the slider went just 1/15 whiffs and the sinker landed upstairs, granting the perfect swing path and incessantly demolition. This was a nightmare. Singer hasn’t had that slider embarrassing batters for a few starts now, sadly, and I totally get passing on the Guardians next. Don’t feel like you need to hold Singer over a streamer.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) vs CIN (L) – 0.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 36 pitches.
More ER than Hits + BBs is a rarity as McCullers was obviously so off his game. I know you’re upset about it, but imagine how he feels after a game like this and getting death threats sent to him and his family. It’s horrible. This is a game played by humans. Other people just like us. As for McCullers’ skills here, he couldn’t throw fastballs for strikes and the changeup over the plate got smacked while the breakers were not reliable at all. You know, the worst case scenario. He was squeezed plenty, for what it’s worth, but yeah, let’s not test this for now. I regret last week’s ranking and was too optimistic that he’d find more strikes in his second start.
Bradley Blalock (COL) vs SDP (L) – 3.2 IP, 12 ER, 13 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 87 pitches.
I really wonder what would happen if the Rockies, White Sox, Marlins, and Pirates decided to merge into one team, forced to spend $200M a year on player contracts. In the meantime (read: forever), we have to hang guys like Blalock out to dry. Poor fella.
Game of the Day
Chase Petty vs. Ronel Blanco – I really think there’s something special with Petty. Here’s to hoping the control is better than last time.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
