Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs CLE (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks – 26 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 94 pitches.
I never focus on ace pitchers at the top of articles, though today feels like an appropriate exception. Tarik Skubal tossed one of the greatest games you’ll ever see against the Cleveland Guardians, returning 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks – 26 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 94 pitches (W) for a Golden Goal. Some days you have to sit back and just appreciate a master at his craft.
Do you realize how difficult it is to toss a Maddux and strike out thirteen batters? It takes at least three pitches for each punchout, equating to a minimum of 39 pitches for thirteen outs, leaving 61 pitches at most to get through 4.2 IP (55 pitches here at 94 pitches total!). That requires a whole lot of strikes and Skubal attacked incessantly. All five pitches (yes, one curve for a whiff!) returned at least a 72% strike rate while the changeup went 52% CSW and 14/29 whiffs (lol). His sinker held a 46% CSW, the four-seamer returned a 47% chase rate and even the slider had fun over the plate.
What may be the most remarkable is the velocity. After cruising through the outing, Skubal was able to gas it up to 101.6 mph to end the seventh before saving the best for last – he fanned his final batter at 102.6 mph. The dude is a beast. He is HIM. Forget fantasy baseball for a moment, be thankful we just watched one of the greatest pitching performances in the sport.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 91 pitches.
You’d think I’d be all gleeful n whatnot and sure, I obviously am when you’re getting a line like that. I also care most about his pitch performance and that’s still lacking. The changeup went just 1/15 whiffs and was floated a ton while the slider…huh. That slider has turned into a proper cutter at 12.7″ of vert (you read that right) and 90 mph. It was effective with a 75% strike rate, but just 2/16 whiffs. Is that what we want? Maybe? The changeup and four-seamer can be the whiff pitches while this cutter (he also threw a cutter at 15.6″ of vert and nearly 5″ less ‘cut’, FWIW) could be the strike pitch along the way, helping him keep tabs on hitters leaning into fastballs. That certainly worked in this one with 1/10 hits on balls in play, and it could certainly be the answer we’ve been looking for. More efficiency, fewer hard hit balls, Papa John’s. Let’s see if it sticks against a RHB-heavy squad that would be more susceptible to the larger slider break.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 87 pitches.
Wow, lots to discuss here. First, those two walks? Final two batters he faced and at 75 pitches prior. First was a 3-1 fastball strike called a ball, the second on a 3-2 count. Ugh. Those aside, the big news here were the breaking balls. 11/11 STRIKES on the slider with six whiffs and five punchouts + a 7/20 whiff curveball. That’s. What’s. UP. The changeup was tucked away and had a few moments but missed too far down to be a major factor, which leads to the heaters. If Cabrera’s breakers are this good, the fastballs need to find strikes and not get in the way. I’m still worried about his four-seamer (57% strikes and his most thrown pitch at 26% usage), but the sinker is getting the job done. I’m not sure why he reverted to four-seamers here and hope he can continue pumping those at 97/98 mph (+1.5 ticks!) while featuring 13/31 breaking ball whiffs. Wouldn’t that be something. With the Giants + Rays + Nationals next, you have to take this chance.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ BOS (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! The splitter and four-seamer went BSB against LHB and they worked wonders (especially the splitter!), while the sinker + cutter was able to deal with RHB. Now he gets the White Sox and maybe, just maybe, he’s not Dean Werewolf for a moment.
Kris Bubic (KCR) @ MIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh Bubic, you wonderful man. Once again, you faced mostly RHB and it didn’t matter, with a smattering of changeups, breakers, and four-seamers over the plate. Oddly, the four-seamer was the only 60%+ strike pitch (81%!), leading to 10/21 called strikes as the Twins rolled over the changeup constantly. This is the life we want.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs KCR (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Atta boy Ober. Let those Royals nightmares fade into the distance. Now I wear the crown! Well, if you can earn a Win next time, maybe. I WEAR THE CROWN. Okay, okay, yeesh. I want to thank you for getting your four-seamer upstairs in this one. You’re still at 90/91 mph and the command is imperative these days.
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
Robbie, you wonderful man. He’s the perfect representation of “April’s ERA correlates least with season ERA than any other month.” He also outlines why it’s important to be forward-thinking instead of translating past performance to the future. Ray was hurling 60%+ four-seamers and failing to earn strikes with his secondaries across his first five outings. Since April 26th, the fastball usage has exceeded 52% just once and domination has followed. We have to sit down and ask ourselves “Is this the approach and pitch performance we expect to see moving forward?” Not box score performance, individual pitch performance. Ray’s slider was far worse. The curve wasn’t being used. The four-seamer was too large of a focus. It didn’t add up and it’s so important to take the moment to look at how those results are coming to fruition. ALL OF THAT SAID, Robbie isn’t getting AGA and is likely to have his ebbs and flows throughout the season. All I’m trying to outline is how his early season was a clear outlier and is a perfect showcase of the type of analysis I recommend. As for this one? A bit of Blame it on the Nationals mixed with an absurd 76%+ strike rate on both breakers…and just 1/21 whiffs on the slider. Weird, but who cares, look at that line. The schedule is glorious ahead, too, so expect a fun June ahead.
Landon Knack (LAD) @ NYM (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
He allowed a HR to Alonso that goes off the books due to an error and the kick-change did marvelous work for 76% strikes. That curve messed him up, though, and it’s awfully strange seeing the slider return just 2/17 whiffs, even if it did return six outs on the night via a pair of strikeouts and many outs in play. He’s now at 91 pitches and I’m not in love with the full arsenal enough to hold him past the Yankees for the Cardinals + Giants after. We don’t even know what the Dodgers have planned for his June.
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs LAD (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 101 pitches.
The walks are no fun, but this was the Dodgers and we’ll take it. Nothing new here, we’re just happy to see him survive and grab a Win, even with that WHIP.
Logan Henderson (MIL) @ PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
It’s hard not to get enamored with Henderson’s fastball/changeup combo after another productive start, but we have a problem. Milwaukee’s rotation is filling up and it’s unclear how much more we’ll see of Logan. He was just optioned and while I’m not happy about it, I’m not too surprised – he was the reinforcements and now their rotation is healing. Why do you like him so much? Because the four-seamer has a super flat attack angle that he can command at will at the top of the zone, paired with a changeup he’ll throw to both LHB and RHB. Whoa. THE MAN DON’T CARE. He lacks a great feel for spin, but just those two pitches should make him 12-teamer worthy with this command. Just give him the reps dangit. He’ll be back.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs SDP (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 101 pitches.
He allowed two HRs off two-strike sliders down-and-in to LHB, one pretty great at 0-2, the other…not so good. Save for those, he was unreal. The four-seamer held an 85% strike rate at 11/39 whiffs, while the cutter, splitter, and curve cleaned up. This is more of the “Mr. Crescnedo” we’ve been looking for, though four-seamer dominance hasn’t been the traditional way. Kinda weird to not see the slider excel more and yet, do we care? Didn’t think so.
Davis Martin (CHW) vs TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 100 pitches.
The changeup was fantastic (8/8 outs on balls in play!) + the cutter is clearly the main focus for RHB, shelving the slower slider. Is it enough to start him against the Orioles and Tigers? In 15-teamers, yes. I question how much value he brings for 12-teamers without huge strikeout upside nor a good Win chance (even though the Orioles and CrySox have eerily similar records…).
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs MIL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.
It’s kinda good for 12-teamers, but a HAISTBMBWT?! without a Win and those three walks are garish. The four-seamer will always lead the way and I’m just twiddling my thumbs waiting for the trade deadline. Will someone pick up the phone and call the Pirates already?
Walker Buehler (BOS) vs BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
The blueprint for Buehler becoming a reliable starter is pretty simple in my book: High four-seamers at 25% usage, cutters over the plate to stabilize, sinkers in to RHB, sweepers to RHB, curves + sliders to LHB. Don’t throw the changeup. We nearly all of that here, save for only a few sweepers and ad four-seamer that was all over the place. At least we got 94 mph (not 93!) and a better slider than we normally see. It’s starting to come together to form a Toby if not a potential Holly, and yet I’d be cautious – @ATL, then 2x Yankees are on the docket. Yikes. I don’t feel as though you need to hold Buehler through that gauntlet in 12-teamers. That’s just me.
Will Warren (NYY) @ COL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 57 pitches.
He got the early hook due to the rain (don’t worry!) and boy is that not fair. 17 whiffs in 57 pitches?! Dude had a terrible first inning, collected himself, and was about to go BONKERS for what, seven innings of double-digit strikeouts? And here I was worried that he might not get enough movement in the thin air. I will mention, the HAVAA was not nearly as flat in this one – 1.2 HAVAA – but that’s likely because of the thin air creating more drop on the heater = steeper angle. PHYSICS, Y’ALL.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ ATH (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 105 pitches.
The ratios aren’t fun and allowing a HR on the first pitch of the game is definitely not fun. Lovely rebound after that, of course, and that sweeper is still such a savior. It has absolutely changed the man.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 114 pitches.
As expected, Castillo went hard into the slider against the RHB-focused Astros lineup and the pitch was…fine. Low strike rate and whiffs with some damage, while the fastballs did step up at 96/97 mph velocity instead of the ~95+ mph we’ve seen thus far. Still, it was a laborious six frames and a VVPQS at the end of the day is not what we want for our squads. The ceiling has come down on Castillo and it’s important to note that he’s a borderline Holly moving forward.
Michael Soroka (WSN) vs SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ayyyy it worked! Not for a Win, sure, but a PQS with a 1.00 WHIP is cool in my book. The breaker is still legit and Soroka is doing a good job separating the hook and four-seamer. There’s work to be done with the sinker and changeup that has me scared of his start against the Diamondbacks, sadly, and I’d prefer to hold off with Soroka until he gets Rockie Road in a few weeks. Thumbs up here, though.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) vs MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.
Another PQS on Sunday and getting anything of value from Hendricks is always a positive, even if this had Blame it on the Marlins written all over it. Fun fact: Hendricks had five whiffs on his 86.5 mph four-seamer. Remember kids, sequencing and location can help you achieve anything.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.
A VPQS from Sonny is fine against the Sneks. I wanted a little more from the sweeper and fewer hittable pitches over the plate, but this is fine. We keep rolling.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ STL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ugh. The moment I give Pfaadt the featured image of The List, he elects to pull back on his curveball to LHB. Just a handful thrown here and we’re back to fastballs with sweepers & changeups. At least the slowball is around and the sweeper does work to RHB, but I want that one-two punch of curves + changeups to LHB. It was what made me so amped! You’ve got the Nats + @CIN next, surely that’s the perfect time to get the feel back.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ CHW (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.
Sooo close to that PQS with a Careful, Icarus as Corbin allowed a solo shot + a double (ER later) before getting pulled. It’s been a fun run of Corbin taking advantage of poor lineups and there’s an argument to be made to chase a schedule of STL + WSN up next. Maybe for deep leagues, but the floor is too low for standard formats.
Colton Gordon (HOU) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 84 pitches.
I’m honestly surprised he didn’t get more banged up in this one throwing so many sweepers and 90/91 mph fastballs over the plate. He’s not the guy you want for fantasy teams.
Gunnar Hoglund (ATH) vs PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 92 pitches.
Interesting to see Hoglund lean so heavily into his sinker for this one. 33 sinkers vs. 20 four-seamers isn’t the fella we’re used to (an inch less vert, too) and I’m not sure I love it. I think I’m moving away from Hoglund at the moment and he’s still figuring a few things out. Whiffs are down, breakers aren’t all too great, and leaning away from four-seamers doesn’t seem like the right call.
Dylan Cease (SDP) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
One of these days I’ll see Cease have a refined approach for LHB. ONE OF THESE DAYS. Yes, he had some mistakes to RHB, too, but it’s pretty clear he wanted to go away with both heater and slider and he executed it regularly. LHB? Middle-middle sliders, some heaters in the zone, and a whole lot of sliders spiked into the dirt. But hey! Eight strikeouts. 19 whiffs. We’re still doing it.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
It was a tough call against the Cubs and I wish he didn’t have the Sneks next. Lodolo ramped it up to 94/95 mph here, though, and I loved the changeup and curve command to RHB. I’m still in here.
Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs NYY (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 75 pitches.
I know this sounds weird, but this isn’t so bad for Senz-A. It’s Coors + the Yankees! Y’all know how terrible this could have been, and he didn’t even allow a longball.
Logan Allen (CLE) @ DET (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
He was so frazzled by Tarik’s dominance that he couldn’t throw the ball over the plate. In all seriousness, Allen tried his best but he’s ultimately not that great and not worth your focus.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ TBR (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
Sigh. Bassitt has a tough schedule ahead and is simply not doing enough to make him worthwhile. The curve has left him like the fading memories of a wonderful dream and it’s time to do more with our day. I can almost make out where I wa–There was a balloon! I think! In the skies! Or was it in a pool? IT WAS THERE.
Ben Brown (CHC) @ CIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
It wasn’t quite the Reds Carpet, but we certainly expected better than this, no? He’s messing around with a kick-change and y’all know that’s not the pitch I’m hoping Brown finds across the season. It’s tough – he’s a pronator, which makes a cutter and sinker difficult to find, leaving few options for a reliable strike pitch that isn’t the four-seamer. They’ll keep hammering away and hopefully he can figure out the right path. You may want to try this again in a repeat matchup away from GABP, just throwing it out there. He still earned 13 whiffs and a 33% CSW, after all.
Game of the Day
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Gavin Williams – Yoshi has been killing it + I want to see the cutter return for Gavin. Can he pull it off against the Dodgers?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
