Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) @ DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
I’ve had my doubts about Grayson Rodriguez. The Orioles traded him in the offseason in what appeared to be a lopsided trade, if not for Grayson’s enigmatic injury status. We’ve only seen him toss two games thus far, tallying 11 ER and 20 baserunners in 9.1 frames, and Thursday’s 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches (W) marks the moment Grayson will be robbin’ our attention.
Grayson’s appeal before his IL stints was catalyzed by two strengths: A hard four-seamer with a solid qualities at seven feet extension + a strong supporting cast with whiffable breakers and changeup. This outing gave us the first facet in spades. Grayson’s heater sat 96 mph with elite two-plane movement (16″/13″) at 1.5 HAVAA and seven feet extension, boasting a 72% strike rate and barreling through the lineup. In fact, his sole run was an 0-1 heater dotted up-and-in that LHB Wenceel Pérez somehow launched over the wall. If that fastball is around, it gives him a chance each start, as evidenced here.
You’re smart and know how the rest of this goes. I could hear the creak in his arm as he tried to execute his slider, curve, and changeup. No secondary eclipsed a 14% SwStr rate or 60% strikes. If they had been strong partners in crime, we would have seen far more strikeouts with Grayson reaching two strikes on nearly 70% of the batters he faced. Their inability to challenge batters led to the early hook despite few baserunners (i.e inefficiency inside at-bats) and I’m not confident they’ll return any time soon. These are not good breaking balls as they both live in the low 80s, while the changeup has promise (two strikeouts here), it has to be a whole lot better to be his #2 pitch.
I wonder how Grayson develops this year. I have to believe he’ll experiment with a harder slider (dare I say…cutter?), and maybe a sinker will appear to aid his attack to RHB. For now, I’m okay trying it against Rockie Road next, but I fear it’s a trap play given the heavy reliance on his four-seamer. It’s a good one, but not elite given its reliance on two-plane movement and not elite in velocity, vert, or run individually. Keep an eye on this. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Davis Martin (CHW) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 84 pitches.
Huge props to Martin. Last start saw him stumble with a ton of sinkers over the plate. He adjusted, pulling back his sinker usage and increasing its time along the edges. His wide arsenal allowed whiffs across all offerings and we’re clearly starting him another time against the Twins. After that? The real challenge – Hotlanata + Dodgers. Good luck. (View Game Card)
Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 80 pitches.
There’s always a chance Bassitt can go six frames and I’m happy he found a way to the end despite a 57% sinker strike rate acorss 50% usage. This improves his season marks to a 5.06 ERA, 1.57 WHI, and 15% strikeout rate…but a 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 19% strikeout rate across his last six. Gotta be impartial. This is his third six-inning outing across those outings (none prior), making him a QS coin flip in Fenway next week. Even with their struggles against RHP, I wouldn’t. (View Game Card)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.
You’re just unable to have a singular great start, can you? This all looks great until you see just three strikeouts and a matching whiff total, fueled by horrible strike rates on his curve and four-seamer – tallying for 51% strikes in 73% usage. That said, his intent was strong – four-seamers inside to LHB, up to RHB + curveballs backdoor to LHB, down to RHB + sinkers inside to RHB – and I wonder how we should interpret his success thus far. Should it be “He hasn’t been his best, just imagine when he figures it out!” or “He’s been super lucky, and it’s going to fade”? In general, it’s wise to lean into the latter over the former, and hope he finds the groove over time to be more than an “Effectively Wild” arm. Ben and Meg y’all do such a good job. Please come back, Sam. (View Game Card)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs CHC (L) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He would have gone through six if not for a throwing error, and let’s just be happy Skenes is showcasing that he still deserves to be SP #1. Give me that Gallows Pole dangit. (View Game Card)
Patrick Corbin (TOR) @ BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! A Gold Star for Corbin in a game where he really tried to make the changeup work. It didn’t, for the most part, but at least he’s trying. This felt more like a Blame it on the Orioles, but can I really say that? I think so…? Anyway, it’s Hotlanta next so let’s nope out of here. (View Game Card)
Colin Rea (CHC) @ PIT (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
Was it pretty? Nah. Will we take it? Every time. He’ll host the Athletics next and I’m wary of that given Wrigley in June = PAIN. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) @ BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I pushed you ahead of Schlittler and this is how you repay us? With a 1.60 WHIP?! I didn’t have my best slider. HOW DARE YOU. (View Game Card)
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs ATL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
I know he was climbing to 100 pitches in a 2-2 game against Sale, but come on, let the young arm finish the job after a leadoff walk. He just fanned Mat Olson! On a sub 94 mph pitch after sitting 96/97 in the first. Ah. Right. Okay, good call. We’re still in fastball-city with Tolle (85% usage) and I could have even extended that to 97% if you included the 88mph cutter (I don’t). Without more in the utility belt, I don’t see the ceiling for Tolle as a true stud, but it’s clear his fastballs are hard to deal with and he’s throwing enough strikes with them. (View Game Card)
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs LAA (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 91 pitches.
A Golden Goal for Flaherty is incredibly unexpected, but the ratios are in-line with his underwhelming 2026. Blame it on the Angels is totally fine with me, though he was up a tick and the Angels RHB really couldn’t handle his slider down-and-away. Maybe that’s enough for the Rays next time out? Probably not, but he does have a 30% strikeout rate across his last five games, including two games combined for six strikeouts. (View Game Card)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs HOU (L) – 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
He got bamboozled for three runs off two HRs before earning an out, then went seven strong with 2 ER after. There’s something to be said about a guy like Eovaldi recovering like that to salvage a start like that. But it was a bad one! No, it was a Dusty Donut. No Win and poor ERA, but elite WHIP and six strikeouts. We overvalue ER as an industry – I’m guilty at times myself. (View Game Card)
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ CHW (L) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 67 pitches.
Wait, you’re pitching again? He’s pulling a Taijuan after Rojas went down with injury and you should not chase this in the slightest. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Taj Bradley vs. Jared Jones – Bradley pitched great in his return from the IL, while Jones has his Still ILL and I’m STOKED.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
