Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
I’ve been patiently waiting for the right matchup to watch Spencer Arrighetti look like the arm we know he can be and with a start against the Mariners, it seemed like the stars aligned as Arrighetti took advantage for 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches. Seemed being the key word there.
I think sustainable success from Arrighetti comes from a foundation of elevated four-seamers, paired with strong secondaries that flood the zone or challenge batters off the edges with two strikes. That wasn’t the Arrighetti we saw today. Four-seamers were unreliable for a horrid 16/35 strike rate (46%!), failing to take full advantage of not only its elite extension and HAVAA that reminds me of Zack Wheeler, but also the Mariners’ unfortunate trait of floundering at heaters inside the zone.
However, the secondaries took over and shone a strong light of promise. Arrighetti’s cutter returned a magnificent 54% CSW, establishing the strikes his four-seamer could not make and missing a ton of bats at 9/24 whiffs, while his curve gracefully fell into the zone for a fantastic 68% strike rate. Imagine if he had that heater cooking, too.
The potential is clearly there, the opportunity is there, now it’s up to Spencer to nail down the final touches to put the whole thing together. Watching his cutter and curve take over was a joy and to think his heater could easily become the breadwinner should get you excited.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ BOS (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 104 pitches.
That’s 52 strikeouts across Flaherty’s last six starts and while I won’t give him the AGA label, it kinda feels like he should have it, This wouldn’t be the start to do so, anyway, as his heater velocity dropped a touch and his breakers weren’t as sharp as we’ve seen them. But look at the line! Pretty, isn’t it? You could argue that Flaherty is deserving given his success despite not having his best stuff, or you can be like me, conservatively suggesting that Flaherty displayed his first signs of degradation and it could mean a downward trend is coming. It’s one game and not like all his breakers were poor, but it’s something to note.
Shawn Armstrong (TBR) vs OAK (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 26 pitches.
He opened for Tyler Alexander, who failed to come through for those searching for a cheap Win or simple production – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. He could rebound against the Marlins up next as this one wasn’t a massive product of terrible command. I’m fine with that.
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ NYM (ND) – 0.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 6 pitches.
Gallen tossed six pitches and left with a hamstring injury. At least it’s not arm related. No, absolutely right. There’s a small chance he’s okay and can make his next start, but I’d imagine an IL stint will come as the Sneks protect Gallen and prevent this from becoming a larger problem.
Hogan Harris (OAK) @ TBR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 102 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gallows Pole to Hogan Harris, who you obviously banked on for pure dominance tonight. Yes that’s a Gold Star, no do I not expect him to have 12/58 four-seamer whiffs again, but then again, he has two inches of extra iVB this year, sitting over 17″ of break with consistent attack up in the zone at 93/94 mph. And yet, Blame it on the Rays….And yet, he gets the Mariners next. Kinda feels like you give it a shot, right? He did back it up with a 50% CSW curveball and he was a decent Toby last year without the improved heater. Just a thought.
Trevor Williams (WSN) @ ATL (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 95 pitches.
You can Vargas Rule it all you want and Williams had some great pitch separation here. Me? I’m in the #NeverTrevor camp. You do you.
Colin Rea (MIL) vs CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.
Four whiffs and a whole lot of hittable pitches, which of course meant Rea had one of his better starts of the year. Yup, it checks out. Sometimes baseball is easy, like figuring out the song structure of your newest pop song. Hmmm, I think we should go verse, then chorus…back to verse, then chorus…then maybe a small bridge followed by an outro chorus? NAILED IT.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
The Irish Panda stepped it up with 1-2 ticks extra juice on his secondaries. It seemingly helped as his slider and sweeper earned called strikes galore at a 30% rate, while the changeup sat low and did its job well. Solid recovery from last week’s nightmare and maybe I should take him more seriously? The overall results are terrible, but he’s truly weighed down by a pair of starts that returned 15 ER total. I wonder if he’s a decent stream against the Padres, especially with this BSB approach.
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs DET (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 92 pitches.
Phew. The Tigers felt like the right team to get Pivetta back on track (they struggle against fastballs pounded in the zone) and leave it to Detroit to never let a guy down. That’s a King Cole for Pivetta, who went mostly four-seamer/sweeper here, abandoning the cutter plenty. I don’t love that (his curve really shouldn’t be his third most featured pitch) and I’m a little cautious with Atlanta up next.
Daniel Lynch IV (KCR) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.
Sure, that’s a start. Lynch took the pearl today suddenly as Brady Singer was scratched with an illness and it likely means he’s back to the minors. His fastball shape is still awfully mediocre and despite being named Lynch, there’s nothing special going on here.
Christian Scott (NYM) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 91 pitches.
His four-seamer command was certainly better here and even without the massive strikeouts, I’m happy with this. Take it as a stepping stone for Christian to dominate the Nationals next time out.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.
Ayyyy, we’ll take a PQS from Taillon all day. That’s the goal on a given night and to see him spread the love across the arsenal is great, though he got away with plenty over the heart of the zone as he missed nailing the edges. He’ll get the CrySox next and I think that’s a safe play.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
That works, though we saw a Careful, Icarus here as Rodón’s final two runs came in the seventh with a walk + a pair of hits before his hook (he still had under 90 pitches, I get it) and a final run once he watched from the dugout. It was a weird game of everything calibrated lower across the board – bounced sliders + middle-middle fastballs & changeups – but it was the Angels and it worked. And everyone rejoiced. Keep it going against the Twins, of course.
Ray Kerr (ATL) vs WSN (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 76 pitches.
So the ratios are terrible and he couldn’t go five frames. He also had a 48% CSW curveball with 13/40 whiffs and that’s all kinds of dope. Sadly, that’s all he has in the tank, even with a 96 mph four-seamer in the holster – it carries poor tension and iVB and his decently flat HAVAA doesn’t redeem it nearly enough – it’s why he went 0/22 whiffs on the heater in this one. I prefer Schwellenbach for Atlanta’s rotation and I’d imagine Atlanta will agree.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.
Do y’all remember what pitch I said was the glue to Gilbert’s early success? The cutter! And guess how many he threw here. Oh no. JUST SIX. Elmer doesn’t gonna have the grip strength of Dylan G. to hold together this approach if you don’t dab a few more cutters on there. I believe in you, Gilbert. Don’t make the cutter this year’s version of your splitter disappearing by June ’23.
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs KCR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.
Okay I’ve got some good news and some bad news. Hit me with the bad news. Well, it’s a terrible start (you knew that) and his heater was down two ticks, hurting an already middling arsenal. Okay, what’s the good news. At least it wasn’t three ticks down. OH COME ON.
Game of the Day
Pablo López vs. Ronel Blanco – We’re all rooting for Pablo to get back on track + Blanco has been a joy to watch.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
Sorry if I’m misreading it, but I think you’re going for a Python reference, and the Python quote is, “and there was much rejoicing.”
Hilarious how you refuse to give Trevor Williams any credit. All because he opposed to drag queens mocking Christianity at a baseball game. Liberals are tolerant, so long as you don’t disagree with them on anything.