Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Connor Seabold (COL) @ BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
It’s pretty easy to write off Connor Seabold as he pitches for the Rockies and holds a 5.10 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and 16.7% strikeout rate on the year, but after going 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches against the Red Sox, I need to highlight some cool things he’s doing.
The obvious: he’s now allowed just 4 ER total across his last three games against @ARI, SFG, and @BOS, but there seemed to be a transition in his outing against the Giants that has stuck around in this one. You see, he’s trying the BSB and it’s kinda working.
The four-seamer once again sat upstairs after not having any intent to do so prior to this run, here earning 36% CSW and a 16% SwStr rate in the process. Meanwhile, the slider was…kinda terrible as it landed smack in the middle of the zone often and allowed a trio of hits, but hey, at least it’s a pitch he throws for strikes?
So this was a Roundup lead that was all about “I know this guy has done well but y’all know this isn’t really a thing and let’s not do something rash”? Yeah, that’s pretty much it. Maybe there is something in that high heater that’s real, but even so, it’s not elite and the secondaries sure are lacking (0/13 CSW on his changeup lol) as he still pitches for the Rockies. There are beautiful starters on your wire, and then there’s Seabold.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
James Paxton (BOS) vs COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 98 pitches.
Another day, another stud outing from Paxton as he took advantage of his matchup once again. The four-seamer did its part inside the zone, allowing the curve and cutter to shine in this one. We’re talking perfect curveballs downstairs for 45% CSW, while the cutter went 18/21 strikes and I was in heaven watching it unfold. Paxton is the real deal, y’all. The only question is health and if you roster him, we just cross our fingers and hope he lasts into the sunset of September.
Charlie Morton (ATL) @ DET (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 104 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Golden Goal for Morton who has been all over the place this year. His curveball was elite in every way – 12/47 whiffs, 47% CSW – and his four-seamer + small change/cutter/sinker mix earned enough strikes to support it. That’s the ticket for Morton and why we’ve held on, but ho boy does it feel like he’s a HIPSTER at times. We obviously start him for Rockie Road and try not to think about it.
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Oh right, Bryce still has an elite four-seamer with a ton of break (he somehow had two more inches of vertical rise in this one). We still have our concerns about the slider becoming a proper #2 (just a 50% strike rate), but honestly, I don’t care? It’ll get better over time and when you throw this good of a pitch 73% of the time for 68% strikes, you’re going to have success.
Mason Englert (DET) vs ATL (ND) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 45 pitches.
Oh cool, a bullpen game – said no one ever.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs SF (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.
Look at Liberatore go, earning a…1.50 WHIP and a ND, but a 3.00 ERA! And under a strikeout per inning! Okay now you’re just being ridiculous. Yes! He’s still down 1.5 ticks to just 93.5 mph with just eight sliders thrown and only 3/18 whiffs on the curve. No thank you.
Logan Webb (SF) @ STL (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
The changeup wasn’t as elite as we’ve seen, but the sinker did its job and the slider…sigh. 0/14 whiffs. I had hope for a moment and that’s what kills ya.
James Kaprielian (OAK) vs TB (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.
Huh, a PQS against the Rays is actually kinda solid for Jimmy Hat. His slider was as good as you could hope for at 42% CSW and a 73% strike rate on four-seamers is wonderful. Props to him.
Zack Greinke (KC) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Greinke does what Greinke does. Leave him be and we’ll all be happy.
Luke Weaver (CIN) @ KC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Womp womp. He was my “streaming pick” but in the Do Not Start tier, so does that really matter? Yes, even without a great lineup, Kansas City is still able to score some runs if you toss Weaver out there.
Matt Strahm (PHI) @ ARI (ND) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 50 pitches.
At least they let him go fifty pitches? Yay?
Zach Eflin (TB) @ OAK (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. Come on Eflin, I’ve just started to turn the corner on you! AGAINST JOKELAND?! I’m pretty amazed given the 41% CSW on both the curve and cutter, but sometimes the sinker just isn’t the pitch you want it to be as it held just a 54% strike rate here. Whatareyagonnado.
Dane Dunning (TEX) vs LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 90 pitches.
Let’s not do this. Please. Let’s just not tonight. Or any night.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 105 pitches.
At least Tyler improved upon his 14.5% strikeout rate, eh? And sat a tick harder on four-seamers and nearly two on his changeup? And earned 7/30 whiffs on cutters? Huh, that’s a lot of positive things for a terrible start. Well, a three-shot ruined it, but he did pitch far better than expected and now gets the Royals + White Sox. Oh come one, don’t convince me to stream Anderson. The Angels let him go 105 pitches here and 16 whiffs are 16 whiffs. JUST SAYING.
Tommy Henry (ARI) vs PHI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
Despite earning a Gallows Pole for the evening (70% SwStr rate slider?!) and having some nicely spotted curveballs, I don’t think this is the arm you want to chase. But maybe that slider is for real…with about 1/3 of the whiffs it earned tonight. 7/10 ain’t lasting y’all, but maybe 2/10?
Jesús Luzardo (MIA) @ SEA (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.
Nooooooooo. You can blame the normally fantastic slider for this (even if it had a 47% CSW for the night!), with five of his six hits all coming on the pitch as he frequently hung it for the Mariners to swat around the field. Each of those slider hits were on 95+ mph EV batted balls, by the way. His slider has held a .444 BABIP on for the year and those who want to say “but a 17% hard contact rate!” well, I want to point to his xwoBACON of .373…but also its .313 xBABIP for the season. So is he getting unlucky or not? Yes and no? He makes mistakes with sliders and they deserve to be hit, but he also shouldn’t be demolished this easily. Look, he gets the Nationals and Pirates next, surely he’ll recover there.
Game of the Day
Corbin Burnes vs. Pablo López – Burnes was at his peak last time out and Pablo had his redemption start. Let’s gooooo.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)