Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Gaus Bandages

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs BAL (L) – 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 97 pitches.

Are you sure you want Kevin Gausman as an Auto-Start today? I GUESS NOT, Y’ALL. I still had Gausman with an AGA label, which means that we’re starting guys regardless of opponent and even against the Orioles, and I elected to send Gausman out there. Whoops. 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 97 pitches. Yeah, it was rough out there in Toronto as the Orioles crushed pitch after pitch, tallying three home runs and sixteen hard hit balls. SIXTEEN.

That dang fastball, y’all. It’s too hittable. Gausman has been able to get by with the high ICR (and thus BABIP) four-seamer for years due to the heavy SwStr rate that followed with his splitter. Here? Just 2/23 whiffs without a called strike. The Orioles were on it and we’re all hurting for it. Without his splitter returning the 22-25% SwStr rates of old (it’s down to nearly 15% this year. Blegh), it means the splitter is allowing more balls in play for a near .300 BABIP (bad) and his four-seamer can be cheated on more often.

How does Gausman fix this? I’m not exactly sure. Throw filthier splitters? Nibble the edges with heaters instead of its 99th percentile zone rate? I’m not sure. What I do know is that Gausman gets the Athletics up next and that should be a better time. He’s still returning a 25% strikeout rate, after all. But that WHIP? Yeah, that WHIP isn’t going to settle under 1.15 for the year. That ship has sailed.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:

 

Erik Miller (SFG) @ ARI (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 15 pitches.

Erik opened for Spencer Howard, who survived with 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks and I’m not seeing a whole lot here I like outside of being in a decent position to vulture a Win in the future. I really don’t like his heater (it’s super steep without good iVB) or secondary offerings. Let’s move on.

Jared Koenig (MIL) @ PHI (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 5 pitches.

Like the Giants, the Brewers went with an opener as well, featuring Bryse Wilson for 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks as he sat almost two ticks down on everything. HAISTBMBWT?! You really shouldn’t be touching this one for your fantasy teams.

Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs MIL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 114 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He escaped some trouble and struggled a touch more than usual, but he still went seven full for a Win because that’s what Wheeler does. Gotta love him.

Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs SDP (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.

The Vargas Rule continues as Anderson’s four-seamer gave enough support to his glorious changeup to get him to the finish line. A 42% CSW changeup for a pitch that landed comfortably in the zone so often is a special thing. Why does it have to be Houston up next?

Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) @ TOR (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.

He’s locating his four-seamer incredibly well, but the concern is with his secondaries, which can’t seem to find the bottom of the zone outside of rare moments of bliss. He isn’t hurting your squads right now, but he’s not acting like the man he’s supposed to be, either. No AGA yet.

Matt Waldron (SDP) @ LAA (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 95 pitches.

Ayyy it worked! And here’s the thing: The knuckleball was terrible. Like 13/31 strikes for a 42% clip terrible. He survived with sweepers, four-seamers, and sinkers because it’s the Angels, and now I wonder what that phrase I used to say was…Do we just turn Waldron into a Cherry Bomb and call it a day?

Tarik Skubal (DET) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Not the ideal start with a few more singles than we’d hoped for, but Skubal got through it. That’s what aces do. That changeup is still so dang good.

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs DET (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 71 pitches.

Look at Eovaldi go, returning nearly six frames on his rough 70-pitch limit. That’s good enough for a King Cole as he sat…WHOA. He’s back to 97 mph y’all. He’s clearly just well rested and happy to air it out a bit. Sure sure, but at least we’re seeing it for the first time in ages. It’s good to have you back, even if it’s fleeting. And what if it’s not…? Don’t tease me.

Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs SFG (ND) – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 80 pitches.

I guess this is your Gold Star for the night…? I didn’t expect Nelson to excel in the slightest and while it was a HAISTBMBWT?!, those ratios absolutely play in easily his longest outing of the year. Too bad his four-seamer’s shape is mediocre these days and the cutter returned just a 15% CSW. This ain’t it.

Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.

A PQS with a dub is fine. He had some whiffs on sweepers and changeups low, mixed with some four-seamers upstairs, but the overall approach is still a bit off to me. It feels too chaotic, but hey, maybe it works against the Cubs? I think there are better options to chase.

Kyle Gibson (STL) @ HOU (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.

It’s terrible ratios from Gibson (with a Philly, no less) but eight strikeouts and a Gallows Pole?! Sure, it’s a Monday n all, but Gibson went 11/32 sweeper whiffs as that thing was hawt. Legit Neckbeard approach here, too, with so few pitches clearly over the plate, and it makes you upset he still had poor ratios. There is something in the air with Gibby this year, though, and I think I’m gonna go for it against Rockie Road. It’s hard not to believe that the sweeper shift is working.

Justin Verlander (HOU) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 104 pitches.

Blegh. Too many hittable pitches down the pipe here, including two hung breakers and a low fastball for three home runs. THREE. And you can’t blame the ball this time around, Verlander. The Angels are next and we should expect a rebound there, but I’m still giving you the look, Justin.

Tylor Megill (NYM) @ WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 87 pitches.

Womp womp. His heater was decent but not as good as it could have been, while the supporting cast didn’t do a whole lot. Sure, there were a pair of luscious splitter strikeouts, but a grand total of 42% strikes across cutters, sliders, and curveballs ain’t getting the job done. Sigh. I’m not totally out on him against the Marlins next given that they’re the Marlins n all, but you’ll have to wait until next Tuesday for that since the Mets are headed to London this weekend. I’m not sure that’s worth the wait.

MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs NYM (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 92 pitches.

Oh cool, just your first start above 3 ER this entire year. The last two came after he left the game with the bases loaded, of course. This was a game of getting Singled Out on his heater, mixed with the worst feel for his secondaries all year. Whatareyagonnado. Still 96+ mph on the heater and I’m starting him against Atlanta if you can believe it. This ain’t him.

Ryan Feltner (COL) vs CIN (L) – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 73 pitches.

His four-seamer doesn’t have any of the pitch shape qualities that made me in anyway enamored earlier this year and he pitches in Coors. Yikes.

 

Game of the Day

 

Tyler Glasnow vs. Jared Jones – This is why we watch baseball.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)