Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
I’ve been impressed with the development of Nick Lodolo this season and last night’s 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches (W) performance against the Marlins is more of the same – a starter who finally has a clean bill of health and has found a rhythm he could never earn prior.
The approach is simple. Sinkers and curveballs to LHB (none faced here) + four-seamers, curveballs, and changeups to RHB. His cross-body mechanics require consistent starts every five days to retain a high strike rate on his secondaries, with both pitches carrying a massive 67% strike rate to RHB this season. That’s hot. It’s why the walk rate has fallen to a minuscule 5% clip, pulling his WHIP down to 1.11 for the season, while still maintaining his 8.0 hits-per-nine of last season. In fact, Lodolo has been less consistent on his four-seamer strike rate (surprisingly just 59% to RHB this season), and I’d expect that to improve as the season progresses.
But what about the strikeouts? Those can return in the blink of an eye with a distinctly faulty chain in the link – his curveball in two-strike counts to RHB. The pitch has routinely held 25-30% putaway rates in previous seasons, but has fallen to a pedestrian 19% clip this season, despite featuring the pitch in two-strikes just as often as he did prior. It’s possible it stays low for the year, though the back-foot breaker is a classic skill from Lodolo and seems likely to return in time.
The old volatile Lodolo is seemingly in the past. Home runs are still a bit elevated with GABP as his home park, but with fewer baserunners and more strikes, Lodolo has settled into a steady Holly with room to grow. Hold on tight with the chance of Lodolo having a true breakout second half ahead.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs WSN (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 71 pitches.
You know, for all the Ugggggggh I give Mikolas, this was one of the better games I’ve seen from him. Because of the breakers? Nah, those were actually worse than usual – the curve was favored over the slider due to a LHB lineup and returned a 47% strike rate (blegh) – I’m talking about the four-seamer and changeup pair that filled the edges of the zone and rarely landed down the middle. 40%+ CSW on both with 84% strikes between them is incredible. And guess what? He got a single strikeout on each of his six pitches. That’s kinda cool. So enjoy the Birthday Party Mikolas, you earned this one.
Colin Rea (CHC) @ MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
Oh snap, that’s a Gold Star for Rea. No, not for Mikolas, for Rea due to the tougher matchup and a whole seven frames of dominance. This was the best I’ve seen Rea nail down-and-away to both sides of the plate – splitters to LHB, sliders and sweepers to RHB – plus some gorgeous inside sinkers to RHB and high-and-tight four-seamers to LHB. He’s feeling his command, ya’ll, and it may be worth a look hosting the Red Sox in Wrigley next weekend.
David Peterson (NYM) @ BAL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
Wow, a 95% strike rate on Peterson’s slider (18/19!), with half down-and-gloveside and the rest over the heart of the plate. Sinkers had zero fear in the zone, changeups were, uh, not good, and his four-seamer wasn’t close to its best, but that slider and sinker! Fun stuff. Now you get to stroll down the Reds Carpet and face the Giants twice. That’s one lovely reward for those who have held Peterson. He’s been a bit of a HIPSTER lately and props to those who kept the faith.
Taj Bradley (TBR) @ BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
I’m pretty amazed he squeaked by here (thanks Koufax). The cutter was all over the place, the splitter and curve were so terrible that he only threw eleven combined, and the four-seamer wasn’t particularly sharp. I’m not interested in chasing Bradley as a PEAS and don’t consider this an outing that displays success moving forward, even if he had 19″ of vert on the four-seamer (an inch more than usual!). If he can go 56% zone rate with that heater moving forward, then I’d be interested, but given his track record, you can’t bank on it.
Charlie Morton (BAL) vs NYM (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 104 pitches.
He was delayed last week due to elbow tendonitis and despite our fears, he hasn’t slowed down in the slightest. The curveball feel is fantastic and a ton of foul balls off the four-seamer is great. We don’t expect whiffs there, we just don’t want them hit in play as the results are generally not in his favor. Maybe get the hook a little lower next time though, okay? Koufax can’t be there every pitch, you know.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ NYY (ND) – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. A no-hitter through seven until a pair of hits before getting pulled. Fun fact: He walked the first two batters of the game, before flirting with perfection after. Funner fact: He threw ten sweepers and all came against Judge. Those at-bats were FUN. This was four-seamers all day and it’s just that good of a pitch, y’all.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 90 pitches.
This may be one of the last times we see Stroman start for the Yankees and all they ever want from him is 2 ER or fewer across five innings. Way to make it happen, Stroman.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ LAA (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
Corbin has been gold in your deep AL-Only leagues and I’m incredibly happy for him. The fact that he went 52% strikes on his slider and adapted to lean more on the cutter to get through this one is simply awesome. No more throwing poor 92/93 mph sinkers over the plate just because. He’s considerable only in 12-teamers on a desperate Sunday chasing a Win or QS, but I gotta hand it to him. We all thought he’d retire after that monster contract with the Nationals, didn’t we?
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs ARI (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 86 pitches.
Can’t say I’m shocked this disappointed across the board with a HAISTBMBWT?! and harmful ratios against the Sneks. It’s also Vásquez, who is like Stroman in that the Padres just want 2 ER in five frames. You have to expect San Diego to acquire an arm at the deadline if they are still well above .500 come the end of July, and the days of Vásquez should be numbered. As if you were chasing this anyway.
Michael Soroka (WSN) @ STL (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
Blegh. This was an inefficient game from Soroka as he lacked consistency on his curveball. When it worked, it was great – 8/31 whiffs! – but it was a low 26% zone rate that led to just a 52% strike rate as he tugged it down-and-gloveside too far across the outing. The changeup helped a bit, but it’s not the pitch we want it to be against LHB yet, and that’s your ball game. Don’t drop here – Soroka should be dressed up for the Reds Carpet after the break – but take note of that curveball feel.
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ ATH (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 101 pitches.
After getting bamboozled in the first inning before earning an out via a three-run shot on a hanging slider to Soderstrom (it was a terrible 0-0 pitch), Strider continued to earn a Golden Goal via 16/41 slider whiffs. And the heater…? 95.4 mph with 16″ of vert. So a little less velo and a little more vert, yet 3/52 swinging strikes, including 23 swings. That’s…still not it. It’s more of the same of Strider’s slider putting his fastball on its back (save for that horrific one, of course) and while he love the strikeouts, it’s still a bit precarious. 57% strikes on that heater with a 25% CSW should scare you a bit, especially going 2/8 strikes on the rest of his pitches – six curves and two changeups. I’m not saying he’ll be bad, just not a Top 15 AGA type of arm and firmly in the Cherry Bomb tier. I’m incredibly curious how he’ll handle the Yankees after the break, but at least the Giants, Royals, and Brewers should follow and that should be a lovely time.
Walker Buehler (BOS) vs TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 92 pitches.
A PQS isn’t the worst, right…? He’s still trying to figure things out and is currently trying BSB to LHB with high heaters, low curves, and cutters + sinkers in between (and the slider down-and-in, but that’s not working at all yet), while RHB after trying to get inside sinkers and away cutters + sweepers. I can see it and now it’s down to polish. He’s not polished yet.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 99 pitches.
I’m still worried about Sugano’s attack to RHB, though the sweeper and sinker combo does look a little better than we saw in previous outings, with 0/23 hits allowed on 70% strikes with the sweeper and just 1/21 hits on 71% strikes via sinkers. Sadly, the splitter didn’t come through with a ton of misses to LHB (38% strikes y’all), forcing more four-seamers over the plate, and that’s the difference between a smooth six frames vs. a PQS. But hey, we’ll take this all day against the Mets and hope the RHB approach sticks – I think the LHB approach returns to form.
JP Sears (ATH) vs ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
I gotta say, Sears is getting more pitch separation these days and I’m here for it. His four-seamer went inside to RHB, paired with down-and-away changeups, while the sweeper was a backdoor pitch and not a “Welp, here goes nothing,” sling over the plate. And the thing is, the two-run shot in the fourth was on a dotted 92 mph down-and-away – it wasn’t a bad pitch! Stupid Sacré Verde. He may be worth a stream against hosting the Guardians in deeper leagues, but the home park still scares me for 12-teamers.
Brandon Waddell (NYM) @ BAL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 57 pitches.
If you go with Brandon, you’re not running to the finish line. You’re Waddelling.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ SDP (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
This was the most disappointing line of the night as Eduardo didn’t have a good feel for his cutter and left too many heaters over the plate. I dug the changeup lefty-on-lefty, though. Thanks for that. He could get the Cardinals and Pirates after the break and that’s still of consideration, though I wouldn’t circle it in 12-teamers.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) @ CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
Yep, that’s the UnQuantrillfiable, alright. You know better than this.
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs CHC (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 98 pitches.
Ouch. His heater allowed all the hits against a tough offense and Koufax was nowhere to be found. I’m still interested in Paddack and with Coors + Nationals (LHB = split change effectiveness!) + Sawx on the road on 7/29 possibly weaker after making trades, I’m still down to start Paddack after the break. This wasn’t the game to let him fly.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs TEX (L) – 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.
The Jack of No Trade strikes again. It’s getting painful to watch him fail to spot his sinkers as he did last season. It was so dang cool.
Game of the Day
Paul Skenes vs. Joe Ryan – This is dope. I also feel for Skenes as he’ll have a low chance at a Win once again. Poor fella.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
