Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Eury Pérez (MIA) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 80 pitches.
It was only a matter of time for Eury Pérez to produce at a high level, and on his fifth start back from TJS, he gave us a show against the Twins: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 80 pitches (W). A Golden Goal with a line like that sure feels like he’s returning to proper form.
Kinda. It feels really weird to type this, but his four-seamer, while it completely decimated many batters for 13/46 whiffs and 50% CSW, relied more on its stuff at 97/98 mph, 1.3 HAVAA and 18″ of vert than stupid good locations. That could be harsh – maybe he doesn’t have to live in the upper third exclusively! He didn’t seem to intend to feature the fastball inside when it stunned RHB, nor did he want to have as many middle-middle four-seamers to LHB nor the ones that ended up landing low. It’s a problem he’s had in previous starts that led to foul balls, but the Twins weren’t capable of connecting.
The secondaries were suspect, too. The curve and change were thrown just six times in total, while the slider returned just a 54% strike rate. The six whiffs are a lovely thing, though he rarely located down-and-away to RHB. I dug a few of the pitches to LHB, but it wasn’t a devastating slider he could rely upon.
And yet, after all this “Hey, let’s still have some caution here” talk, it was really fun watching Eury throw heater after heater and overwhelm batters. Games like this can bring the confidence needed to get everything up to speed and despite the hesitation to pronounce the full return of Eury, I’ll certainly be starting him in Cincy and Baltimore for his two-step next week. I’m happy y’all see what he can do now, just wait until the slider and/or secondaries match the heater.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
José Soriano (LAA) @ ATL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 101 pitches.
Mmmmm that’s some good Soriano. We’re back after that dip last time out with 78% strikes on his sinker and a whopping 55% CSW on 33 curveballs. Just two wasted curves on the game as the two-pitch pairing sauntered through seven, giving each other high-fives and smiling at each other while dipping their sunglasses down their nose. Heyyyyoooo, it’s a PAR-TAY IN HOTLANTA! But seriously, we’re back on the train with the Rangers next, even if the slider never got an invite to the event.
Cade Horton (CHC) vs CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
Yesssss, thanks Cade! It was the best game we’ve seen with his changeup, featuring it 28% of the time to LHB for 8/22 whiffs and 73% strikes, and consistently landing down-and-away. He didn’t need the curve or sweeper much at all with the four-seamer landing above (and middle-middle a bit too often) for a whole bunch of outs and called strikes. I love the new weapon, though the 83/84 mph curve is close to being the same movement as a gyro slider (0″, 0″), making for a tight movement band between all four pitches. I’m not sure I love that, and I wish he would locate his fastball a bit better, given his donut command here (mid-mid often + a poor 19% “NC rate”). It leaves me conflicted. We should be happy to see the changeup as a proper weapon to LHB, but neither the breakers nor fastball are taking the step forward we wanted to see by now. I’d be cautious against the Twins next despite this performance.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) @ CHC (ND) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 68 pitches.
With Ortiz being investigated for sports betting, Cantillo was called upon to make a start on short notice and I just gotta say, his four-seamer came with 7.6 feet of extension. It wasn’t the best command we’ve seen from Cantillo in the past with a poor 19% NC Rate on said four-seamer and some lofted changeups, but the slowball was still effective and the curve + slider did their part, especially the slider to LHB. And hey, the Cubs! Take note of Cantillo – if he takes this rotation spot, he’d get the Astros and White Sox in a two-step next week. I see him as a fastball/change arm, which makes him set up for the RHB-heavy Astros and the CrySox. The only question is volume, which may make for a tough single-stream against the Astros, but I’d be in for both starts in a weekly league.
Logan Evans (SEA) vs KCR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
With Hancock back to the minors, Evans stepped in and did a great job for the Mariners for a Gold Star. I’m not in love with his whole approach – he throws 87/88 mph “cutters” (that are really gyro sliders) 30% of the time with 27% sweepers and 27% sinkers + a handful of forgettable pitches – with a questionable feel on the sweeper and a 92 mph sinker leaving a whole lot to be desired. I’d chase something else.
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ SEA (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 101 pitches.
Yet another 7+ strikeout game from Lugo and it’s hard not to be thrilled about it. Also, fun fact, he’s at 34% usage curveballs, but it’s clear that it’s two pitches being categorized into one. One is a sweeper and another is an actual curve; they both have the same amount of horizontal break with about 10″ of vertical drop separating the two. Fun stuff. Just keep starting Lugo.
Aaron Civale (CHW) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Sure, it’s not a line you’d actually want for your squads with a 1.40 WHIP, four strikeouts and no dub, but 2 ER in five is great! And you did it with just 28% fastballs! Pretty wild to watch Civale go ultra hiLoc to RHB with cutters and sinkers, too. We’re talking about eight total pitches not upstairs, and all were sliders or curveballs. He spotted every cutter, sinker, and four-seamer upstairs to RHB. That’s rad. Sadly, it’s not the raddest of rad that I recommend a start against the Jays, but I still dig it.
Dustin May (LAD) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches.
We had a Careful, Icarus here as May came out for the eighth and promptly allowed a single and a two-run shot before getting the hook. Bummer. You can Blame it on the White Sox for not taking advantage of some hittable pitches, but May definitely pitched better here. The sinker was armside consistently and the sweeper was far better located down than we’ve seen prior. And get this – he returned 6/18 whiffs with his four-seamer as he used it effectively generally in the upper half in two strike counts. I love that. It’s a better start from May, but is it enough for us to trust that he’s turned a corner? He did sit a tick up on the sinker to 95/96 mph and have a 78% strike rate on nine cutters…fine. Take a shot against the Brewers, but this could easily just be a Dennis.
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ ARI (W) – 9.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 102 pitches.
He went the distance and even allowed a solo shot + a walk in the ninth that doubled his baserunners and ER for the game. So close. Welcome back to the AGA club, you beautiful man. I’m touched that you gave us such a good effort to come back – 38% four-seamers in this one with 37% sliders! YOU TRUSTED YOUR SECONDARIES!
David Peterson (NYM) vs MIL (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 103 pitches.
Phew. Much better, Peterson. The changeup did work against RHB while the four-seamer and sinker were effectively wild, dancing far out of the zone and then back in along the edges + curves looped in effectively with decent sliders to tie the package together. Not my favorite Peterson start, but good enough command overall with decent pitch separation to get through six against a middling offense. He’s a decent play against the Orioles next, but I wouldn’t go out of my way for it.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
Guess what? He’s still struggling to make it work against LHB. And the sweeper is barely touched these days and has far less sweep than it used to. It doesn’t make sense. Oh, and sinkers are now down-and-inside to RHB, too. I don’t really understand Pfaadt these days and while I’m happy he’s able to get eight strikeouts (three via the sweeper that was thrown just nine times!), it just doesn’t look like an arm who has figured it out. What about the cutter? Oh right. Six thrown to LHB, one to RHB, and kinda meh?
Jake Irvin (WSN) vs DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 107 pitches.
Oh snap. Irvin was really good against LHB with a BSB approach of high four-seamers and low curveballs, allowing just one hit on 59 pitches. Sadly, the fastball was still high but not that high and had little support against RHB, leading to a longball and just a 14% CSW on the four-seamer. It makes you wonder, why oh why didn’t he throw the curve to RHB, too? Not that the slider wasn’t effective, I don’t understand why he threw just 11 of them and instead leaned on four-seamers and sinkers. It’s right there Irvin, TAKE IT. For deep leagues, Irvin isn’t the worst option against the Cardinals up next.
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 92 pitches.
Is it helpful in non-QS leagues? No! But will we celebrate a PQS in Coors against a good offense from a normally unproductive pitcher? Yes!
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs NYY (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 113 pitches.
One out away from a VVVPQS is rough, but it’s a Dusty Donut with nine punchouts and a dub, which is honestly pretty dang good for Bassitt against the Yankees. I’m shocked he went to the four-seamer 22 times here, which is normally the far-and-away fourth thrown pitch (or less), but he insisted here for a 27% NC Rate and 41% strikes. Weird. Mostly upstairs to LHB and it did get a pair of strikeouts, but for the most part, he threw a lot of strikes with sinkers, curves, and cutters, with some sneaky sinkers for backwards Ks and a whole lot of hits. So, yeah the strikeout rate isn’t real and the ratios are going to keep hurting. But hey, the curve being a strike pitch is cool! Too bad he didn’t get them under the zone effectively more than one or two times.
Jose Quintana (MIL) @ NYM (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
A Careful, Icarus from Quintana who allowed just one run through five before Koufax abandoned him for three singles that led to two runs to his name. The good news – his changeup was glorious to RHB, reminding me of Jimmy Key back in the day as he tested RHB down-and-away with slowballs all game. The curve and sinker weren’t quite as solid as the changeup, but Quintana pitched well enough to be an arm to stream if he had a good matchup ahead. Suitman whispers into my ear. Oh it’s the Dodgers? And after the break it could be…The Dodgers again. Cool cool cool yeah we’re not doing that.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) @ TOR (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 55 pitches.
Schmidt left this one early with right forearm tightness. Oh no. Yeaaaaah. I wonder if we’ll see some Cam Schlitter in the near future, or if a trade is on the horizon. The Yankees can’t fight in the second half with Stroman and Winans/”Coffee Cakes” as their #4/5, which is the best case, assuming health. But yes, we don’t know the severity of this injury (MRI tomorrow), even if it’s awfully rare for pitchers to not miss significant time. Sigh.
David Festa (MIN) @ MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.
It was a rough first frame of 3 runs, including a two-run blast, but he settled down afterward and I’m thrilled to tell you that Festa went BSB with his four-seamer up and changeup down to LHB. 8/34 whiffs between them with a quartet of strikeouts, while the slider was down-and-gloveside to RHB that returned 5/18 whiffs and paired with a highly effective 94 mph sinker with terrible movement but 77% strikes and zero hits on 13 thrown. It’s the first game that I’ve actually seen Festa showcase proper intent and command across his arsenal, even if the changeup held a sub 50% strike rate and I’m not in love with the sinker. I’ll take this…but not push my luck against the Cubs and possibly the Dodgers for his next two outings.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs LAA (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 101 pitches.
I had a tinge of hope that Elder’s slider would have a field day against the slew of RHB Los Angeles would throw his way, and, to be faiiiir, the slider was effective against them, just not absurdly good, while the sinker was trounced per usual. Carry on.
Brandon Walter (HOU) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ouch. Walter’s cutter and four-seamer were effective save for a cutter that left the yard for two runs, while the sweeper barely got low, and his changeup + sinker were rarely thrown and punished when they were. You can see how this does work when he’s commanding a bit better and I think you’re safe starting him against the Guardians up next.
Dietrich Enns (DET) @ WSN (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
Womp womp. He was bamboozled in the first with five on the board, including a three-run shot, and save for sinkers up-and-in to LHB (I loved that), he wasn’t able to consistently locate his arsenal. Especially the cutter at a 31% strike rate… that can’t happen. With SGL on the IL, Enns has a spot in the rotation (for now) and it’s not a certainty that his high-vert four-seamer mixed with what can be a great changeup and dotted sinker is destined to fail. The floor is pretty obvious, though. Do the En—DON’T SAY IT. I’ve heard that joke roughly 20 times in the past week. SPARE ME.
Game of the Day
Lucas Giolito vs. Michael Soroka – I wonder if Giolito can nail his changeup down against the LHB-heavy lineup and if Soroka can continue his resurgence (despite losing the curve in his last start!).
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
