Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: WAR Cade Fire

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Cade Povich (BAL) vs CHW (W) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 98 pitches.

Y’all watched the White Sox vs. Orioles for Alex Fast’s broadcast (it was AWESOME) and stayed around for Cade Povich’s career start – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 98 pitches. He was efficient, precise, and cruised for a career-high in strikeouts, innings, and pitches, and now you have a decision you didn’t expect. Is Povich worth holding?

This absolutely was Povich’s peak. It was also the CrySox in concert with a massive lead behind him that allowed him to cruise without anxiety, even getting a sizeable zone to help tie the gift with a golden bow. this was an exceptional game that likely wouldn’t be replicated in his follow-up, let alone inside Fenway.

If your plan was to drop Povich to maximize your playoff week, I’d keep the course. Povich’s two-step next is appealing with the Tigers following his date in Fenway, though you need to get there first and he may stick on the wire with the tough offense ahead in the short term + his lack of help for the rest of the week. I don’t believe this to be a new plateau (love the high heaters and low curves + changeups for strikeouts, but the sweeper still needs some work) and value now is worth more than potential later.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

 

Chris Sale (ATL) vs COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.

Aces gonna ace with yet another Gallows Pole. Him or Wheeler for the Cy Young? Probably Wheeler is he gets more starts/IP, but we really need to celebrate Sale having a career year at 35 years old. You love to see it.

Paul Skenes (PIT) @ CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.

Aces gonna look a bit average. Just a little. He whipped out a changeup this time around (not the splinker) that returned 10/19 whiffs at 53% CSW, as if that’s fair. However, the slider was unreliable and his heater wasn’t blowing by guys per usual at just 4/46 whiffs. I have to ask again – Is Skenes a Top 3 SP next year? I’m not quite sure yet.

Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 86 pitches.

YES. This was the last tough matchup for Heaney and with his gorgeous schedule ahead, you really have to hold Heaney indefinitely. Unless it’s absolutely terrible against the Angels. And Mariners. And then more Mariners. And more Angels. Wait, that’s the end of the season. YOU GET WHAT I’M SAYING. Love the curve and change getting into the action here, too. This is the good stuff.

Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.

He’s made us sweat a bit lately and it’s nice to have this one to ease our worries for the near future. Without Vinnie-P in the lineup, I wonder if the Royals aren’t a team to fear as Bibee’s heater returned 11/41 whiffs despite doing nothing massively different than usual. Well, I guess the 41% sliders underneath were a little more consistent? Also weird to see just five changeups on the night (and only eight curveballs, but that’s typical), but don’t break what was a fixin’, right? That’s not how it goes. It’s my article, dangit. Go start your own website with Hold ‘Em and Aggies. That’s not how it—WHY ARE YOU STILL HERE.

Jeffrey Springs (TBR) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.

The changeup was vicious, though the slider and four-seamer weren’t at their best. Nick, the heater was in the top half all game. Okay fair, I guess I’m spoiled by his previous games of heaters right on the edge, you know? It’s a hard choice with @PHI, @CLE, TOR as his next three (with an off-chance for a final start in Fenway) and I think you take the chance against the Phils. He’s feeling his change/heater enough.

David Peterson (NYM) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 89 pitches.

Absolutely unreal. Sure, the Red Sox are terrible on the road, but a King Cole with twenty whiffs?! PETERSON, YOU DAWG. The dude has been a league winner and I completely missed the boat on him. His pitch separation was glorious once again, executing the BSB to perfection, allowing him to return fourteen whiffs on his 13/14″ iVB four-seamer on just thirty-one thrown (45% SwStr rate?!), leading to curves and sliders landing below for called strikes. What a world this is. LET ERRRR RIDE!

Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 99 pitches.

This was a Win until a grand slam on a hanging Holmes slider gave the Win to the Rangers. Rodón’s slider was unreal, and even the hunger changeups worked well to keep the Rangers on their toes, returning a 53% CSW and a major cause for 15/49 foul balls on four-seamers (just three in play!). It’s a solid schedule and we’re not letting go of Rodón.

Kyle Freeland (COL) @ ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.

You know, I was slotting Freeland at the bottom of the rankings and thought to myself “Hey, Freeland always has those random decent starts away from Coors.” Good for you Freeland, looks like it was a fun Birthday Party. That gelato “cake” that was really just a slab of three different flavors looked legit.

Luis Castillo (SEA) @ OAK (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 99 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. A bit strange to see few changeups thrown, but he faced more RHB and he didn’t have good feel for the slowball here (even with 4/8 whiffs! It wasn’t going where he wanted them to.). Instead, sinkers inside to RHB, sliders away, and a whole lot of four-seamers. It worked even if the slider wasn’t at its best, and we keep moving forward.

Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ SFG (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.

That heater y’all. It wasn’t even placed as well as we’ve seen and it still cooked across 56% usage. The slider and cutter combined for about 30 thrown and helped, too, but this was still just a four-seamer dominant game and the Giants obliged. I’m holding through the Astros at this point.

J.T. Ginn (OAK) vs SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.

Oh dang, this actually worked. Ginn is a sinker/slider guy, which means he can take down RHB just fine, but LHB are going to be a struggle. Fortunately, Ginn resisted leaking sinkers to the middle of the plate against them, while he went Dancing With The Disco confidently to skirt around them. Now he gets the Tigers on Sunday and I want to be in, but they can go also go LHB-heavy and that may be Ginn’s weakness. How about we see if that works and go after the White Sox after? If you’re searching for an SP antidote on Sunday, Ginn could be the tonic you need.

Kutter Crawford (BOS) @ NYM (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.

Well done Crawford. This was four-seamer/Kutter dominance as a Canibal McSanchez approach as both pitches nailed the top half all game and messed with Mets batters. Seriously, he rarely featured low pitches in this one and it worked incredibly well. Is it enough to stick with Crawford now for the Orioles + Yankees for two next week? Maybe. It’s a risky play and while I want to do it, I’d prefer to be conservative.

Reid Detmers (LAA) vs LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 100 pitches.

Whaaaaaat. That’s a Gold Star for Detmers in a triumphant return from the minors reminiscent of his journey last season. The slider and heater were a one-two punch with eight whiffs apiece and it’s great to see that slider feel return. I’m skeptical that the heater can be this pitch moving forward, though. He’s not carrying the elite iVB we saw before with average qualities across the board and a 43% CSW doesn’t seem sustainable. The changeup did help for 8/9 strikes and 44% CSW (the curve is still hit/miss), though that’s a supporting cast member and not why we’re at the theater. If you want to spec add this against the Twins with the White Sox after, I completely understand. Personally, I’m terrified. I want to believe, but the slider has disappeared before and the heater is still questionable in my view.

Brady Singer (KCR) vs CLE (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 99 pitches.

Huh. A pedestrian outing from the quintessential Cherry Bomb is an oddity and you can blame just three slider whiffs…wait. Six? I’m seeing 14 sweepers in the mix for three whiffs, too, which honestly is the same pitch in my view, but whatever, six whiffs off breakers and that’s still underwhelming for Singer. He is what he is.

Patrick Corbin (WSN) @ MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.

He did it? Well, it was a Philly and would have nearly been a VPQS. But a Win. And near 3.00 ERA. With eight strikeouts. It’s just a WHIP pulling it down! HE DID IT! Nick, the cutter was thrown just 18% of the time. And earned outs as it hugged gloveside with his sinker landing armside exclusively. Sure…LET IT RIDE.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) vs PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! Hendricks stepped in for the injured Steele (just elbow inflammation = the best news possible but likely an IL stint) and pitched one of his best games of the year with a 42% CSW changeup and 50% CSW curve. I’m happy for him. I’m also happy to leave him on the wire. Enthusiastically content, really. You’re making content? No, content. Right. Oh no. Make it stop.

David Festa (MIN) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.

We’ll take this for Festa, who had great four-seamer command, a strong changeup, and a slider that went in-and-out of the zone. I loved what I saw, especially after he started to find his rhythm. He’s a solid arm with whiffability and I think there’s room to grow becoming a touch more consistent with the slider, too. He’s been pushed back to avoid the two-step and now faces the Angels on Monday + the Reds at the end of the week and y’all know I’m super into that.

Walker Buehler (LAD) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.

Ayyyy, he came through for a productive start! Detmers was absurd on the other side, so no Win and his four-seamer’s vert is atrocious at just 14″ – I was expecting 16″+ y’all. But he threw enough curveballs and cutters over the plate, with the rare sinker and those four-seamers, and limited the damage to just a pair of solo shots, the final of which killed his Win. Bummer. I don’t think he’s exceptional enough to start against the Cubs, sadly, even with the Marlins after. He’s not the guy.

Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs PHI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.

The pen let him down to preserve the Win and the Phillies got the better of Bassitt, who we’ve seen conquer tough offenses before. It’s generally smooth sailing after this and I’m cool with rolling with Chris, despite the…4.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this year. Man, it was really that bad, huh? I guess that July –> Mid-August stretch really ruined his season.

Aaron Civale (MIL) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 89 pitches.

Ehhhh, I’m glad he got seven strikeouts and we saw more curves, but the command isn’t great. Maybe he’s worth the gamble against the Giants, but I don’t love it, y’all.

Steven Matz (STL) @ MIL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 78 pitches.

Welcome back Matz! Two longballs ruined this one but Matz’s BSB was on point with heaters with stellar precision upstairs and changeups consistently down. Uhhh, that’s legit..? We’re not sure when Lance Lynn returns, but I think we can expect Matz to get another start in this six-man rotation, leading me to circle his start against the Reds. He’s absolutely in a groove and already stretched to 80+ pitches.

Nick Nastrini (CHW) @ BAL (L) – 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 72 pitches.

Nastrini’s four-seamer is so unruly. It’s pretty stark to watch his slider well spotted only for his heater to twice go to the backstop in the same spot (and break the netting in the process). One day it’ll click and he’ll get comfortable. Probably.

Max Meyer (MIA) vs WSN (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 94 pitches.

He went Dancing With The Disco and it wasn’t enough. Stop trying to make Meyer a thing.

Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs ARI (L) – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 73 pitches.

Ah. Right. Cherry Bomb and not to be trusted. Y’all know this. This was the first start of his where heaters fell to middle height and he filled the zone a bit more than usual, which is kinda interesting only because it’s different. Obviously bad, but at least something new?

Tyler Phillips (PHI) @ TOR (ND) – 0.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 36 pitches.

The Phillies moved on from Walker for this. I miss Turnbull.

 

Game of the Day

 

Cristopher Sánchez vs. Bowden Francis – I have to know if Francis can keep this up. I GOTTA KNOW.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)