Every day of the 2022 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Twitch.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 9am – 11am ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Twitch AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses. Dave Swan does an incredible job of showcasing future SP matchups every 2-3 weeks in this article, and I’ve elected to use his offense ranks to share with all of you here:
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it’s a great general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
2022 Streamer Record: 56-45
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s a busy top tier once again with Sandy Alcantara and Clayton Kershaw leading the way. Hard to argue against their dominance at the top.
- Unfortunately for Robbie Ray, he has the toughest matchup of the day, forcing me to place him under Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Framber Valdez. Doesn’t matter, he’s been on such a good run that you can’t bench Ray.
- The second tier is bloated as well with Nestor Cortes, Miles Mikolas, and Sonny Gray at the top. All have favorable matchups, even if Mikolas has limited his groundball rate to just 45% in a HR-heavy park.
- The final trio of the tier is a set of Toby types – Martín Pérez, Carlos Carrasco, and Merrill Kelly. I’m still favoring Carrasco over Kelly, but if you need a better ERA instead of more strikeouts, Kelly is likely the better play.
- In the third tier, Ian Anderson has been volatile but gets the benefit of facing the Angels, making me put him above the likes of Paul Blackburn and
Zack Greinke.Update: The Royals look like they’re going with Kris Bubic instead. He has some intrigue with 92 mph heaters, but I wouldn’t risk it. - Tyler Mahle is coming off the IL and pitching at home after not starting a game since July 2nd (he didn’t have a rehab start). I’d be cautious here as I don’t expect many innings and he’s pitching at home, though I see some managers chasing strikeouts on a desperate Sunday.
- Even though he’s performed well against tough teams recently and harnesses a plus changeup, I still have my concerns with Ross Stripling facing off against the Red Sox. Be careful.
- In the bottom tier, Reid Detmers has to be my streaming pick of the day. He survived the Astros last time out and has improved his slider since returning from the minors. It’s not quite where I want it to be and I’d rather not start him against Atlanta as a southpaw, but I still like his odds more than the others below.
- Mitch Keller was the other consideration – I know, it’s rough down here – as he just performed well in Coors. Somehow. I’ll believe in Detmers’ growth over Keller’s…magic.
- We’ve spilled a lot of ink on Alex Cobb this year and while he’s coming off a great start against Arizona, the Dodgers are far different and are likely to make this another tough day at the park for Cobb.
- The days of starting Nick Pivetta are over, especially against the mighty Jays offense. Give it a rest.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- After the bountiful number of top tier options over the weekend, only two remain on Monday with Max Fried and Tony Gonsolin sitting atop the ranks. YOu don’t need me to tell you to start them, while I have Fried above Tony for his track record…even if Gonsolin has the better ERA.
- The second tier is pretty simple as well, leading off with Sean Manaea against the Tigers. Sure, Detroit is better against right-handers, but Manaea should still have his way if either of his secondaries show up or he sits above 92 mph on his heater.
- The remaining trio in tier two are your Toby types against middling offenses. I’m favoring Merrill Kelly above Noah Syndergaard as Kelly is a bit more stable start to start, but there isn’t much of a difference to me.
- Corey Kluber lands above both of them as he’s been surprisingly steady over the last month or two. Orioles magic could get in the way of a strong Kluber performance, though you’re going to take that chance.
- In the third tier, Jake Odorizzi leads as he’s been gifted a third straight start against the Athletics. I adore Aaron Ashby and Nick Lodolo, but Odorizzi is a safer play here.
- Speaking of Aaron Ashby, he’s my streaming pick of the day as he faces Rockie Road. His time as a starter hasn’t been as smooth as we’ve liked, but against a weak opponent and he’s stretched out to take full advantage (ignore the Sunday “start” – it was a bullpen session that happened to be in-game).
- I considered slotting Nick Lodolo ahead of Ashby, but I think there’s a touch more risk in a tougher matchup. Both arms could very well break out in this second half, though, and with their sub 20% rostership rates, now may be the time to jump in.
- At the end of the tier is Zack Greinke, who could be just fine against the Angels. The limited ceiling has him below Lodolo and Ashby, but you need volume, Greinke is your guy.
- I wrestled with the top of the final tier as Keegan Thompson and JT Brubaker could arguably be in the Questionable Start group as they face off against each other. Ultimately, I believe thy’re both too volatile without a high enough realistic ceiling to chase, even if they each face a paltry offense.
- Sure, Trevor Rogers could take a step forward in this one, but why put yourself in harm’s way?
- With Anthony DeSclafani out for the year, we may see Jakob Junis slotting back into the rotation and a start against the Diamondbacks could get us excited again. I want to see him lock back into his groove first before trusting it, though.
- I’m completely over starting Nick Pivetta at this point, and the same goes for Chris Flexen against the improving Rangers offense.
- There’s a chance Josiah Gray is able to conjure plenty of strikeouts and avoid the longball against the Dodgers, but it’s far too dangerous to kick off your week.
- And while I’m digging Zach Plesac’s slider and changeup, I don’t believe a start against the Red Sox is worth the gamble.
Featured Image by Drew Wheeler (@drewisokay on Twitter)