Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric that indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
Continuing from last week, we’ll survey what we’ve seen from hitters selected in the middle rounds, using NFBC ADP as a guide. Let’s see who looks good and not-so-good from picks 50-100.
Note: PLV metrics are current through Saturday, August 30th.
NFBC ADP: 56.51
A career-best 33 home runs during his first season wearing Dodger blue sent Teoscar climbing up the draft board this past offseason, especially once he inked a three-year extension. This year has been rough to say the least; he is hitting .245, 16 points below his career mark, and his .280 OBP is the fourth lowest among qualified hitters, behind only Adolis García, Anthony Volpe, and Michael Harris II. Oddly enough, his swing aggression has actually dropped from 2.2% to -0.6%. Regardless, his Power+ has dipped from 120 to 105. Not great. But as you might have noticed, his strikeout rate is down three points to 25.8%. Sure enough, his Contact Ability+ has risen from 82 to 89. He is also making decent swing decisions (103 DV+). Hey, at least it’s not all bad news.
NFBC ADP: 60.49
Having landed on the IL with an oblique strain, there is a pretty decent chance Rutschman’s 2025 season is over. The 27-year-old slugged a career-low .373, but his 95 Power+ being nearly identical to last year’s 94 might provide a silver lining. Rutschman cuts a unique profile as a switch-hitting catcher with great bat-to-ball skills (126 Contact Ability+) and good swing decisions (109 DV+). But for now, he seems capped at 20 home runs or so.
NFBC ADP: 62.47
Butler has shown solid power, hitting 18 home runs through 496 PAs, and he has swiped 17 bases. However, his .232/.306/.407 slash line isn’t what fantasy managers had in mind after last year’s breakout. His Power+ has dropped from 117 to 106; that’s a pretty decent downturn, but far from a disaster. However, the strikeouts are a problem; his Contact Ability+ has plummeted from 103 to 86, leaving him as a batting average liability. His splits have also been problematic, with him hitting .181 with a 48 wRC+ against left-handers.
NFBC ADP: 65.18
Ozuna showed some life a few weeks ago, but has since gone cold, and if his sitting twice against two left-handers this past weekend is any indication, we can probably kiss his season goodnight. Ozuna’s bid at a third consecutive 100-RBI fell way short as his Power+ plummeted from 139 to 110. Still, I’m intrigued by his 16.7% BB rate; that’s third-best among qualified hitters, behind only Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. A 121 DV+ and 105 Contact+ is a pretty decent combination. Can his Power rebound?
NFBC ADP: 69.15
I know you know he is awesome, but I’d be remiss not to mention Kyle Schwarber after he became the 21st player to go yard four times in a single game. And he is just nine home runs from tying the Phillies’ record held by Ryan Howard (58, 2006). Schwarber posted a 136 Power+ last season. This season, he is at 146, trailing only Shohei Ohtani (152) and Aaron Judge (148) among players who have seen at least 400 pitches. Who says you can’t have a breakout season in your 30s?
Brenton Doyle
NFBC ADP: 71.20
Doyle’s 15 stolen bases aren’t what fantasy managers had in mind, and neither are his 14 home runs, .695 OPS, and 76 wRC+. The 28-year-old righty’s Power+ has dropped from 109 to 101; a decent drop, but perhaps not as much as the lackluster results indicated. His Power+ has also trended up, supporting his strong performance since the ASB (.370 average and 162 wRC+).
NFBC ADP: 78.55
Last Monday, Raleigh joined Mickey Mantle as the second switch-hitter in history to hit 50 home runs. Hey, that’s pretty good! In all seriousness, this is an all-time season from a catcher that we might never see again. Just for bookkeeping purposes, yes, his Power+ has risen, although perhaps not by the astronomical proportions you might’ve guessed, going from 122 to 128. His 88 Contact Ability+ equals last year.
NFBC ADP: 79.63
I mentioned Caminero last week, but, boy, what a thrill he has been. Heading into Monday, he’s just one home run shy of becoming the fourth player in MLB history to hit 40 home runs during their age-21 season (he turned 22 on July 5th). Caminero’s Power+ has jumped from 107 to 114. Sure enough, his Savant profile reveals his Pulled Air% has surged nearly six points to 20.9%.
Of course, that doesn’t tell the whole story, or even close to it, since the sample size last year was a little small (107 BBE). Rolling charts provide a more intuitive way to visualize seasonal fluctuations, particularly for young players; it’s a good way to check if they are adjusting. In which case, yes, it’s probably fair to say Caminero has tapped into his ceiling lately.
The only nitpicks against Caminero are that he swings a little too often, as his 85 DV+ and 3.3% swing aggression attest to, and he has a tendency to hit hard groundballs; the latter has led to banging into a league-leading 28 GIDP (Pete Alonso is second with 22). FanGraphs’ Michael Baumann explored his proclivity for rally killers earlier this year. Regardless, Caminero is doing something special right now.
NFBC ADP: 92.80
Reynolds’ 97 wRC+ is the second-lowest mark of his career, his nadir having come five years ago during the chaotic 60-game season. His Contact Ability+ has dipped from 92 to 84. But oddly enough, his Power+ of 115 is just about a standard deviation above league average and pretty much unchanged from last year’s 116. Ditto with his 112 Process+. A buy-low candidate for next season, perhaps?
NFBC ADP: 93.39
Bellinger has had a terrific bounce-back season, hitting .279 with a 130 wRC+, and he’s just four home runs shy of his first 30-home run season since winning the NL MVP back in 2019. The obvious thing is this year’s park shift; he would have 29 home runs if he had played all of his games at Yankee Stadium as opposed to 22 if he had been in Wrigley Field. Of course, that doesn’t mean much, but at the same time, I can kinda see him trying to take advantage with his Pulled Air% coming up nearly four ticks to 25.6%. Anyways, Bellinger’s Power+ has risen four ticks, but at 94, he is still below league average. That’s not great, but assuming he returns to the Bronx next season, I still think his repeating 25+ home runs doesn’t seem like much of a stretch.
Something that has perhaps gone underappreciated is Bellinger’s strikeout rate. Remember when he really struggled with whiffs during his final two years in L.A.? Well, that’s a distant memory. This year, he boasts a career-low 13.1% K rate. Sure enough, his Contact Ability+ has climbed from 122 to 130, two standard deviations above league average.
NFBC ADP: 94.48
Vientos bopped eight home runs with a .988 OPS in August, but in deference to the fantasy teams he tanked through the first few months, I think we have to put him in the bust category. His 108 Power+ pales to last year’s 126, but it’s not all bad. Sure enough, his rolling Power+ is incredible, supporting his recent home run binge. And he has upped his Contact Ability+ from 85 to 98.
NFBC ADP: 94.69
Second among qualified catchers with a 152 wRC+ and first with a .404 OBP, Will Smith has authored a terrific age-30 season. His Power+ has climbed from 103 to 110, and his DV+ has skyrocketed from 103 to 124.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
