The Severity Of Limits

Talk about a crazy year for Luis Severino. We didn’t even know if he would be starting back in Spring Training, then he turns into one of the best arms in...

Talk about a crazy year for Luis SeverinoWe didn’t even know if he would be starting back in Spring Training, then he turns into one of the best arms in the fantasy in a blink of an eye, mastering his Slider and getting the feel for his Changeup that he sorely needed. After a small hiccup before the ASB, his second half had been glorious, with just 3 ER allowed in five straight starts…until yesterday as he put up a huge clunker in 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. So normally this wouldn’t warrant a lead as I’d just brush it off an move on, but with Sev there’s major consideration in a potential innings limit. On one hand, he’s thrown a chunk of innings in the past two years – 161.2 and 151.1 – and the Yankees are fighting for a playoff spot. On the other, 2017 is a bonus for NYY and they need a healthy Severino for 2018 and beyond during their window. Not to mention, they can’t push him through a playoff run without some rest prior, which would indicate at least one start skipped before the end. But then the Yanks just lost Masahiro Tanaka on top of Michael Pineda and CC Sabathiaplus Jordan Montgomery is supposed to have a limit as well. My gut says Sev will miss about two starts before all is said and done, so plan accordingly. Yesterday’s game doesn’t change anything – just one bad game with his 4th highest velocity of the year – but you may want to make a move if you’re locked for the playoffs.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Mike Clevinger – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. What am I to do with you? You guys know I ultimately believe Clevinger has the skill set to be a consistent Top 40 arm and this start should prove his ceiling, but man he hasn’t been consistent this year, allowing 5 ER in each of his previous two starts. The main difference – and always the wild card that has the biggest impact – is the command of his Four-Seamer and it was killing it yesterday as he got ahead early with the pitch a ton – 18/24 first pitch strikes! Now that Tomlin is out for six weeks, Clev has a spot in the rotation essentially through the end of the year, but can we really depend on that Fastball command being there? That’s a tough question and I hope so. Treat him like a high risk/reward arm and play it as you need it. He gets the Twins next and I hope it’s more of the same.

Patrick Corbin – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. You know what’s crazy? Corbin didn’t throw a single Changeup in this one, electing to go fully Slider/Two-Seamer/Four-Seamer in this one. That’s over 50% Sliders! And it worked. You can thank his Fastball for not being terrible for that. He’s a clear strikeout upside play, though the volatility will keep some away and I see this as a matchups option. Houston is next, so that’s a no, but the Mets + Giants after suit my fancy. Also, enjoy your Co-Gallows Pole win with 18 whiffs.

Dylan Bundy – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. Sure, it’s a VVPQS but 10 Ks are going to get people talking as it’s the second straight start he’s gone double digits. Alright, it was the Angels and A’s, but once again his velocity was up – highest of the year! – and I’m buying as he has more faith in his Slider. Its 32.7% usage rate was the highest of the season and he’s building upon the foundation he’s set in his last two starts. Sign me up!

Jose Berrios – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. I hate how much I need to hate on Berrios these days. It’s sad. I know he can be better than this, he’s just in a bad place right now. And right now means a lot since we’re gearing up for the playoffs. He’s holding a 7.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, and 6.20 ERA across his last nine starts since June 26th. With a 5.0 IPS. That’s grounds for dropping unfortunately.

Sean Manaea – 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. If you saw this, you’d know how bad Manaea looked. Like really terrible. His one out was a play at the plate that barely got the runner. His velocity was down, Slider wasn’t sliding, Changeup was meh, location all over the place…it was really bad. He’s in a terrible place and while the talent is still there, I have much less faith that he can rebound than I did before this one. Like Berrios, you can drop him too. You ain’t got time for this.

Erasmo Ramirez – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. This is such an Erasmo start. He’ll squeak one of these out and pay major dividends to the one owner who happened to trust Erasmo this time. Now there will be dozens of you and then he’ll give you a boring and poor start across the board. Just don’t do it.

Jhoulys Chacin – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it. Are you even happy with this if you ran with Chacin? I guess it was the Dodgers, making you a mad man.

Edwin Jackson – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I think it’s absolutely crazy how EJax has a 3.30 ERA through his first five starts as a National. It’s absurd. Meanwhile, he’s also sporting a 5.21 FIP, though 29.2% soft contact and 8.1% line drives is suggesting that he’s a bit closer to that ERA than FIP. So let’s say 3.80 ERA…there’s value…there? Maybe? Ugh, this feels really dirty.

Justin Nicolino – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. I feel bad for Justin. He’s the equivalent of the little coffee shop that you want to do well among the mass of chain stores, but he has to charge more for coffee that isn’t even objectively better. It’s just not going to work.

Aaron Nola – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. He gets to share the Gallows Pole with Corbin via 18 Whiffs, but that doesn’t matter really. What matters is he’s still dope and your life is dope.

Chris Rowley – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s a Cup of Schmo as the Jays need arms like their going to war. In case you were wondering, a sub 90mph Fastball is all you need to know.

Steven Matz – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Speaking of whiffs, I just can’t support Matz until I see him consistently at or near 10% whiffs per game, which he hasn’t hit save for two starts in the 12 he’s thrown this year. I’m still staying away – this was against the Phils and he only got one strikeout! One! What is it nick? Oh, sorry to bother you Juan, didn’t mean to call you. It’s cool.

Chris Archer – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Okay 8 Ks are great, but we do need to talk about that 3.84 ERA. It’s been a consistent number through the year – not your standard peaks and valleys we normally discuss – and while his 3.17 FIP and 3.39 xFIP are better, there aren’t too far off and neither is his scFIP of 3.50. Obviously the value lies in Archer’s 11.13 K/9 supported by his 6.4 IPS, but how much are those strikeouts worth when it comes with a mediocre ERA and WHIP? I’m starting to heavily question my #12 rank.

Scott Feldman – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Feldman Schmeldman. I’m glad Milone is gone so we have a clear winner for the Schm-x bit. At least Milone could give us that.

Ian Kennedy – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. This came after two starts of 6 and 4 ER each. No thanks. Blame it on the White Sox.

Jon Lester – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Lester has tallied 35 Ks in four of his last five starts, with three games of at least 9 Ks. He’s falling in love with his Cutter again – over 50% thrown in this one! – tossing it over 30% of the time in each of his last four starts after barely throwing it over 25% prior. This is a very good thing considering it is far and away his best pitch. I’m back on the Lester train y’all.

Carlos Martinez – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Ehhhh sure. Obviously I want one ER and maybe one or two baserunners fewer but the 7 Ks and PQS are making me okay with this.

Drew Pomeranz – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s not exciting but it helps. Kinda. Alright it’s on the border of helping and not helping. But that’s the floor we’re talking about with The Dirty Cheerleader this year and you should like it.

J.C. Ramirez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This doesn’t help. He never helps. It’s like asking a dog to do your homework for you. Sure, he’ll eat it and maybe that will work once, but let’s not get greedy.

Tyson Ross – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s weird but I have to consider Ross and old Young Gun as I can see he ramping up for 2018 but it’s hard to see me investing in him this year.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Pretty blegh for a start against the Padres. Now he gets the Tigers, which I’m game for, and the Pirates after, so don’t let him loose unless you have other options that suit you.

James Shields – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. It seems like everyone and their mailman had plenty of strikeouts yesterday.

Trevor Williams – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. I mean, look at Trevor! Just the third time all year accruing more than six strikeouts in 18 starts.

Jeff Hoffman – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Just one whiff. ONE. And this was out of Coors! Yeah, I’m done with you until I see a multi-game trend. Streamer Record 60-44-14.

Lucas Sims – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Yeah, I’m not investing in Sims anytime soon. I just don’t see enough reward to chase this.

Brent Suter – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. I knew you guys would give up on him Suter or later.

Mike Fiers – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. You guys have gotten off the Fiers train by now, right?

Jordan Zimmermann – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Yep, that’s Zimmermann alright.

Jeff Samardzija – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I’m kinda back to calling him Loose Lips again. He’s a Cherry Bomb like Michael Pineda before him and it’s hard to continue imagining that he’s going get the feel for his Slider every single game. I wouldn’t mind owning him at all, but I can’t expect the breakout in the final weeks.

Today’s Streamer

Chad Kuhl vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Very limited options here and Kuhl is the only one that I can have some ounce of faith in and is facing a poor offense.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jerad Eickhoff vs. San Diego Padres – The Padres are bad and Eickhoff can spin off a solid start here. I can see someone going with Adam Conley against the Giants if you really need a start here.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Dinelson Lamet vs. Philadelphia Phillies – It’s hard to turn this outing away as Lamet could fan over 8 batters and not kill your ratios against a poor Philly offense.

Game of the Day

Chris Sale vs. Jordan Montgomery – I always like watching The Bear pitch and I always LOVE watching Sale pitch.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

7 responses to “The Severity Of Limits”

  1. chrish011 says:

    Nick. Needing some serious batter/pitcher help in my 14 team OBP H2H league. Beginning of this week my pitchers were: Klub, Taillon, Fulmer, Manaea, McHugh, Morton, and Castillo, and had just dropped Clev. I needed OF help so I dropped Castillo, and Manaea, and I’ve been rotating between a litany of guys with Yelich always (though not so much recently) a fixture. These guys are: Pham, Nick Williams, Aaron Hicks, Avisail, Eddie Rosario, and Jose Pirela. At least I finally settled on Cron and 1B and Jorge Polanco (over Ketel) at SS, but my OF/SP situation is a mess! Eduardo Rodriguez, Estrada, and Clev are out there, but my main question is, which batters do you think I should drop? Peralta is an OF I could (should?) get too.

  2. Soggy Arm says:

    When you look at Clevinger, he’s not as inconsistent as made out to be. Very solid run. Then 2 clunkers. But the command is back. He is not the roller coaster we see with others. My hope is that he continues to throw the 4 seamer with authority. I think I’m holding. Was ready to drop before last night.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I’m inclined to agree with you, though the major knock has always been that Fastball command. Seeing it prop up again in two starts (and in his brief moment in relief) is a bit disconcerting.

      Here’s the hoping he’s back.

  3. Tyler says:

    I’m really starting to think that this is a lost season for Matz and it sounds like you’re really down on him too. Drop Matz for Clevinger in a 14 team H2H league?

  4. Matt says:

    You really think it makes sense to deal Severino right after that blowup? Feels like his stock is down, though my league’s trade deadline is tomorrow so I either have to move now or not at all…

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