The third base position is chock full of exciting talent throughout the Minors and Majors. From José Ramírez to Austin Riley and Matt Shaw to Coby Mayo, we have a strong core of players to handle the hot corner over the next decade. Our Dynasty Team at Pitcher List has embarked on a complex and often controversial task: creating player comps. But fear not. Our team is up for the challenge! It’s important to remember that we are not saying talent or players are 1:1; instead, we are simply taking a historical stat line as a basis for the floor and ceiling of a prospect for fantasy purposes. Here is a look at some notable player comps compared to current third-base prospects!
Matt Shaw, CHC
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2018 Rougned Odor
.253 AVG | .326 OBP | .424 SLG | 18 HR | 12 SB | 26.7 K% | 8.0 BB%
Odor may not be the best comp overall, but the stat line is fair and they have similar skill sets. I anticipate Shaw consistently providing double-digit homers and steals throughout his career while also hitting for a solid average. Shaw makes above-average contact and sound swing decisions regularly. Thus, he should avoid reaching a strikeout rate that high, but with a bit of added aggression down the line, I could see a path to sub-10% walk rates.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2018 Alex Bregman
.286 AVG | .394 OBP | .532 SLG | 31 HR | 10 SB | 12.1 K% | 13.9 BB%
Bregman is a perfect comp for the type of player Shaw will become as a pro. The 31-homer output is probably a pipe dream, especially playing in Chicago, but I can see a path to 25 homers. Plus, Bregman gets to his pull-side power more often than Shaw, who has an all-fields approach. The strikeout and walk rates align with Shaw’s likely outcomes based on his contact skills and approach at the plate.
True Projection:
Fantasy managers should be giddy with having Shaw on their rosters. He’s a professional hitter who grinds out every at-bat and shows above-average tools across the board. While Shaw will not be an elite outlier in any offensive category, the sum of his parts makes him a viable Top 100 dynasty asset for the next decade. Shaw’s production will most closely align with his ceiling when determining floor versus ceiling.
Coby Mayo, BAL
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2018 Matt Chapman
.229 AVG | .324 OBP | .433 SLG | 24 HR | 1 SB | 26.7 K% | 9.4 BB%
I really love the Matt Chapman comparison for Mayo. Like Chapman, Mayo is an excellent power source and already shows above-average EVs in the minors. They also share a similar struggle against breaking pitches, which has sometimes plagued Mayo, including his MLB debut last season. Even in a ‘down’ year for Mayo, I’d anticipate mid-20s home run production with an average slightly higher than the .229 that Chapman had in 2018.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2018 Eugenio Suárez
.283 AVG | .366 OBP | .526 SLG | 34 HR | 1 SB | 26.9 K% | 10.6 BB%
Given his ability to tap into his power, a mid-30s homer season is not only within the range of outcomes but is a fair expectation for Mayo at his peak. To reach a .280 average, he will need to have some BABIP luck, especially given his prowess in hitting the ball in the air. In Suarez’s comp year, he ran a near-40% groundball rate and 26.6% line drive rate, which Mayo has never approached in the minors.
True Projection:
Projecting Mayo was more complicated than I anticipated. The power is legitimate, and we can firmly expect 30-homer seasons in his career at peak. What remains unclear is how his hit tool translates and how much growth he experiences against off-speed pitching. MLB pitchers will find any weakness a hitter has, so if Mayo doesn’t make gains, it could be problematic against his batting average and strikeout rate. I’ll walk the line in the middle of his ceiling versus floor and project a 27-33 homer bat but with an average consistently around .260.
Charlie Condon, COL
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2017 Chris Davis
.215 AVG | .309 OBP | .423 SLG | 26 HR | 1 SB | 42.3 K% | 11.6 BB%
Condon was an ultra-productive hitter in college, posting a .433 average with 37 homers in his final season. Before his debut, I had questions about the hit tool and contact skills, and when he debuted in the minors, he was slightly exposed. It’s too soon to make a judgment against him, but my concerns are still there. The power is legitimate, and playing his home games in Coors Field will only help Condon reach high home run totals. His average will never drop to .215 or his strikeout rate to 42.3%, but if the contact concerns come to fruition, it’s not unrealistic that he hits .230 with a 35% strikeout rate.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2016 Mark Trumbo
.256 AVG | .316 OBP | .533 | 47 HR | 1 SB | 27.7 K% | 7.6 BB%
Trumbo is a perfect comp for Condon. Both have elite power, questionable contact skills, and the potential to flirt with 50 homers in his home park. Not to mention the physical comps, as Condon (6’6″, 215lb) and Trumbo (6’4″, 225) are big-bodied corner infielders. The .256 batting average is the most accurate, as Condon doesn’t profile as someone who can hit over .260 with regularity, even with the Coors BABIP boost.
True Projection:
Identifying exactly how Condon projects against his floor and ceiling remains a mystery. My lean is closer to the floor because I am concerned about contact. Fantasy owners should anticipate a 30-homer bat with a mid-tier batting average at peak, with years where the power plays and the average doesn’t.
Cam Collier, CIN
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2018 Rafael Devers
.240 AVG | .298 OBP | .433 SLG | 21 HR | 5 SB | 26.9 K% | 7.8 BB%
When I look at Collier, I immediately think of Devers. They have a similar build with that slightly stocky, chubby cheeks look. There are concerns about Collier’s frame and how it holds up, much like there were with Devers at a similar age. Collier is already tapping into pull-side power, and while he’s likely not progressing to a near-. 280 batting average, he does have a feel for hitting and an advanced approach.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2023 Paul Goldschmidt
.268 AVG | .363 OBP | .447 SLG | 25 HR | 11 SB | 23.4 K% | 12.7 BB%
Thankfully, it was pre-falloff, Goldy! Collier has enough pop and contact in his bat to be a 25-homer bat with a mid-.260s average consistently. The stolen base output is likely unreachable, even given the new rules, but it’s a huge win if fantasy owners can get five to eight steals from Collier.
True Projection:
I can’t help but get Devers-esque vibes from Collier, although I’d be surprised if he ever reaches that level as a hitter. What is comparable is his frame and power upside. The one thing I am interested in seeing Collier develop is more aggression at the plate. His swing rates are still on the lower end, and Devers is notoriously aggressive at the plate. The most likely outcome for Collier at his peak is closer to the abovementioned ceiling.
Cam Smith, HOU
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2015 Asdrúbal Cabrera
.265 AVG | .315 SLG | .430 OBP | 15 HR | 6 SB | 19.4 K% | 6.5 BB%
Finding an exact comp is nearly impossible, especially against a switch-hitter, but Cabrera’s overall line in 2015 feels like a good start. I anticipate Smith having much more top-end power, although Cabrera did have a 25-homer season. The contact rates align well, and I see a path where Smith has a lower batting average due to a higher fly-ball rate. It’s worth monitoring to see how the walk rates compare. Entering his final season at Florida State, Smith had a 33% chase rate but lowered it by over 10%, which also jumped his walk rate.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2021 Manny Machado
.278 AVG | .347 OBP | .489 SLG | 28 HR | 12 SB | 15.9 K% | 9.8 BB%
Aside from double-digit steals, this is well within the range of outcomes for Smith at peak. His contact skills are questionable but should still be better than the league average while also reaching plus power. The pre-career move from Chicago to Houston is underrated and gives me hope that Smith has the potential to reach 30 homers.
True Projection:
It’s hard to project guys who have yet to provide a big enough sample to pass judgment accurately. Entering his final season, Smith had a few notable weaknesses: high chase rates and questionable contact skills. He made significant gains in both areas and entered the draft as a more well-rounded hitter. If you’re buying the gains, which I am, Smith looks like a .270 hitter with 20-25 homers consistently.