The key to building a good farm in dynasty baseball is identifying early signs of a prospect’s potential, while also knowing when to move on when they prove otherwise. Here are three undervalued prospects to keep your eye on early into 2025 that have a chance to leap toward the top of prospect rankings.
Going into the 2024 season, Ty Johnson was a relatively unheralded pitching prospect in the Cubs system. Taken out of Ball State in the 2023 MLB draft, Johnson fell to the 15th round after throwing three uninspiring years for the Division I Cardinals, posting a 5.39 ERA over 157 innings with a modest 10.2 K/9. He showed command issues in his collegiate years, walking batters at high rates while giving plenty of others free bags via HBPs.
A tall 6’6” righty, Johnson’s arsenal has been a predominantly fastball/slider mix in his first year in pro ball. While his heater averaged just 92.4 mph in his final collegiate year, it boosted up a tick or two as he jumped into the minor leagues, showing his ability to develop further with professional coaching. While he sprinkles in a middling changeup and sinker from time to time, they don’t yet hold up in quality to his preferred offerings and open him up to acute reliever risk if he isn’t able to widen his arsenal.
Video via MLB.com
Jumping into the 2024 season as a 22-year-old with the Low-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Johnson only needed 33.2 innings of production to earn a promotion to High-A South Bend. While he seemed to struggle in his first month after promotion, he started to find his groove in his second. Through his three appearances in the month, he gave up just one run with a 17/5 K/BB ratio through 10 innings, showcasing his strikeout upside albeit still fighting command troubles.
The batters he faced weren’t the only ones taking notice of Johnson’s prowess, as he was traded to the Rays as an add-in to the Christopher Morel/Isaac Paredes trade just before the 2024 trade deadline. He might not have carried too big of a name at the time, but the Rays’ elite player evaluation group must’ve seen enough in Johnson’s profile to want him in the deal.
Per Dylan White of Baseball America, the Rays development staff got right to work after Johnson’s move, tinkering with his mechanics to increase his velocity and lower his release point. With these changes, Johnson dominated in his small sample with the Rays’ High-A Bowling Green. He had whiff rate increases across his arsenal alongside an improved ability to attack the strike zone. He slashed his High-A walk rate from a problematic 4.0 BB/9 to an elite 1.6 mark through a 13.3% increase in strike percentage, potentially turning a profile weakness into a strength.
Noah Cameron of the Royals organization is a 25-year-old command-first southpaw pitcher who worked his way up to Triple-A in 2024. Standing at a strong 6’3″, the Central Arkansas starter fell to the Royals in the seventh round of the 2021 draft after getting TJ surgery during his draft year, but he now ranks as their 12th-best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. He doesn’t have a flashy arsenal and instead profiles more as a high-volume innings eater, but he’s been exceptional in the minors, thanks to his solid four-pitch mix.
Cameron doesn’t feature an elite fastball as his headliner. His four-seamer averaged just 92.1 mph with a 15.6 IVB and 6.0-foot extension in Triple-A. These metrics don’t profile out too well and result in a paltry 18% whiff rate, although the mid-95 mph velocities that Cameron has flashed this spring give tempered hope that he’s added another tick. Regardless, he has a great supporting cast of pitches to help keep hitters off of it, enabling him to throw it a sparse 37% of the time.
His hallmark pitch is his changeup that sits 77-80 mph with about 11 inches of armside run. Throwing it around a quarter of the time, he has a great feel for the pitch and can locate it effectively. Slower than the average changeup to maintain an effective velocity gap from his fastball, the pitch ran a 45% chase rate with an outstanding 47.5% overall whiff rate against Triple-A hitting.
Video via MLB.com
Aside from the change, he also highlights an effective 12-6 curveball in that same 77-80 mph velo band. He only gets eight inches of drop on it with about 2,100 RPM of spin, but it’s been an effective pitch that he can get whiffs with alongside stealing strikes in the zone. And new for his 2024 campaign, Cameron debuted an 88-90 mph cutter with about average spin and moderate usage. It has tight action and is mostly used as an in-zone option with a 56% zone rate, utilized especially early or behind in the count when he needs a strike while keeping hitters off his fastball. In fact, all four of his pitches had a 66% or better strike rate in 2024, showcasing his ability to use any tool in his toolbelt when needed.
With his strong command and ability to leverage pitch types, Cameron pitched 54.1 quality innings to close his season with Triple-A Omaha. He had a resounding 2.32 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP, thanks to his strong 23.8 K-BB% despite not having overpowering stuff. He induced weak contact with an 83.8 EV, the second-best average EV of all Triple-A pitchers with at least 200 batters faced, resulting in an elite xwOBA of 0.254. While it certainly isn’t MLB-level, these are results to get excited about as Cameron gets closer to the majors.
Now, there are plenty of effective left-handed MLB pitchers with a similar pitch mix mold to Cameron (mediocre fastball, curveball-changeup centric), such as Max Fried, Jordan Montgomery, Ranger Suárez, and Jose Quintana. But each one of these pitchers has incorporated a sinker to mix with the four-seamer, so I’m interested to see if Cameron is able to find success at the major league level without one. With his ability to develop a cutter last offseason, maybe he has the feel to develop an effective sinker in the future if he needs to, though his fairly over-the-top arm slot might make that more difficult.
Though he earned a spot on the Royals’ 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft, Cameron isn’t expected to start the season with the big league club. Instead, he’s more likely to work his way into the rotation at some point mid-season, edging out a spot from Lorenzen/Bubic/Marsh. Watch to see if Cameron starts his year off strong. If so, there should still be a cheap buying opportunity before he gets his imminent call-up to the big league club. While he may not have top-of-rotation upside, he has a chance to be an effective high-volume starter with the Royals.
Peak Profile Projection: 170 IP / 3.65 ERA / 165 K / 35 BB
Jimmy Crooks III has been a fairly under-the-radar catching prospect since he was drafted in 2022 by the St. Louis Cardinals. Taken 127th overall out of the University of Oklahoma, Crooks spent his time as a Sooner working hard to improve his defensive profile to match his offensive propensity. While he succeeded in turning his defense from a minus to a plus, he met some turbulence in the wood-bat Cape Cod League and ended up profiling more as a defense-first catcher heading into the draft.
Working his way from Single-A Palm Beach in his draft year up to his 2024 season with Double-A Springfield, Crooks continually rose to the occasion. Each year, he maintained a roughly 21% K-rate and 11.5% walk rate, not elite marks but showing his ability to handle pitching in the middle minors. He’s shown decent contact skills and patience to support these numbers, though it will be interesting to see how it translates against Triple-A pitching likely in 2025.
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He starts his swing in an open stance with a well-timed leg kick to square him up, vaguely reminiscent of a Rafael Devers swing. While certainly not an exact comparison, he’s been able to swing his way into strong wRC+ numbers at each of his stops through the minors, culminating in a career-high 156 wRC+ in his 90-game 2024 season at Double-A. While his slash line of .320/.410/.498 might have partially been fueled by an overinflated .390 BABIP, his strong exit velocities and ability to spray the ball at ideal launch angles indicate he should be able to sustain a BABIP at an above-average rate.
Entering 2025 as the Cardinals system’s top catching prospect, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals’ catching landscape settles as Willson Contreras moves to first. Down the stretch last season, Pedro Pagés ended up being the preferred option over Iván Herrera thanks to Pagés’ solid defense, though Herrera flashed a stronger bat. Crooks also has the strong defensive profile that the Cardinals value, so if he maintains his success against Triple-A pitching, he might be able to edge Pagés out offensively.
One thing to keep an eye on in 2025 is if he can better address his splits, as most of his damage comes against righties. Those splits are slightly less important as a lefty batter and as a catcher, but if he continues just getting by against southpaws, it will cap his long-term upside.
Assuming his spring training doesn’t miraculously jettison him to the bigs, watch to see if Crooks maintains his solid plate approach and strong contact profile as he likely rolls into Triple-A. If he starts the year off hot, he’ll be a good buy in dynasty leagues, as there’s a chance he gets his cup of coffee with the big league club near the end of 2025.
Peak profile projection: .275 AVG / .340 OBP / 18 HR / 2 SB