At face value, the Brewers rotation doesn’t put fear into most opposing hitters. Freddy Peralta is an ace, but behind him has been a conglomeration of arms from the past and for the future. Dallas Keuchel, Wade Miley, and Joe Ross go as far back as 2011, while Robert Gasser, DL Hall, and Tobias Myers ideally remain part of the rotation for the next few years.
15 different pitchers started a game for the Brewers this year, tied with the Marlins for most in baseball. While their ERA has been average, a 4.16 figure ranks 16th in baseball, their 4.60 FIP ranks 28th in baseball. With a mix between luck (.280 BABIP) and defense (2nd in OAA), the Brewers have stayed afloat atop the NL Central for the time being.
Though not expected to be one of the relied-upon arms in Milwaukee, Tobias Myers has quietly settled into a role and some job security. Unlike many of the arms recalled to Wisconsin, he doesn’t look like a stopgap despite coming out of nowhere. The 25-year-old has put up a 3.52 ERA in 64 innings this year, though ERA estimators don’t fully agree (4.43 FIP and 4.13 SIERA), and he’s got an intriguing pitch mix that should continue to succeed against big league hitters.
Getting to the Show
Myers did not have an easy path to big-league success. Like many, Myers endured a long and winding road as he progressed towards MLB status, but had a few more stops than most.
A sixth-round pick by the Orioles in 2016, Myers debuted in pro ball at just 17 years old. After throwing 37.1 innings in rookie ball and Low-A with the Orioles, he was shipped off to Tampa Bay for Tim Beckham. Myers then spent five years as a member of the Rays organization, progressing up to AAA in 2021. His early years with the Rays saw ERA success but poor strikeout numbers, though that changed after the minor leagues returned in 2021. Myers’ 2021 saw 117.2 innings with a 3.90 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 30.6% K%, and 5.7% BB% across AA and AAA.
Though it seemed like a promotion was imminent, Tampa Bay, in pure Tampa Bay fashion, would ship Myers to Cleveland for a prospect named Junior Caminero (you may have heard of him). After 60 innings of a horrid 6.00 ERA, 14.1% K%, and 11.1% BB%, Cleveland designated Myers for assignment. The Guardians would then trade him to San Francisco for cash considerations, though Myers was ultimately DFA’d again after just three innings in AAA for San Francisco. The White Sox claimed Myers off waivers but released him in September.
After a promising 2021, Myers cratered with a 7.82 ERA at AAA for three different teams. The prospect shine had worn off at 23 years old, and Myers was out of a job.
In late 2022, Myers signed a minor league contract with the Brewers. He took a step back and pitched at AA for most of his 2023 innings, where he regained his strikeouts (29.4% K%) and limited walks (7.7% BB%). This year, Myers came out hot to start the AAA season, posting a 1.62 ERA, 32.8% K%, and 10.4% BB% across 16 innings before finally getting his call to the big leagues.
After a gruelling journey, Myers got a harsh reminder of what big leaguers are made of: Andrew McCutchen took Myers deep on the first pitch in his debut.
The Arsenal
Myers has five different pitches with at least five percent usage. He throws a fastball (four-seamer or cutter) over 60% of the time before turning to a mix of the slider, changeup, and curveball.
He relies primarily on his four-seam fastball, which he throws 41% of the time. Though not the most overwhelming pitch, it operates at 92.7 mph and gets 18 inches of induced vertical break (iVB). Myers uses the pitch to start at-bats and in two-strike counts. He gets first-pitch strikes 78% of the time with the fastball (97th percentile) and a 31% chase rate in two-strike counts (90th percentile).
His command looks underwhelming from the pitch plots, but that’s because he peppers the zone with strikes. However, he does show that he can elevate consistently to RHB.
Built on the strong first-pitch strike rate, the overall 74% strike rate is 96th percentile. Myers overall has an above-average 29.1% CSW% on the fastball and is able to limit hard contact too. Hitters only make ideal contact (ICR) 38.4% of the time, rounding out the fastball as a solid pitch for strikes, whiffs, and contact.
Myers’ main secondary to righties is a slider, which he deploys 29% of the time. The pitch is an average RHP slider, coming in at 85 mph with 4 inches of horizontal break and 3 inches of rise. It has a 30.7% CSW% (63rd percentile) but does an exceptional job at suppressing WHIP. The slider has a 55.7% Str-ICR, which is in the 81st percentile among SP and is a strong predictor of WHIP.
Although the pitch doesn’t get many chases, it still has a 33.3% whiff rate (61st percentile).
For lefties, Myers relies on a cutter 28% of the time and a changeup 21% of the time. The cutter has been hit hard, with a 41.3% ICR (50th percentile) and a .320 AVG. It is close in velocity to his fastball at 89 mph but does not have great locations.
There are many middle-middle and non-competitive misses, which hamper the cutters’ ability to perform at their best. The cutter only has a 25.1% CSW% (41st percentile) which doesn’t pair well with average ICR.
The changeup is a similarly inconsistent offering but in a different way. Myers struggles to find the zone generally, as the pitch has a 25% zone rate. It is still able to get whiffs, but batters swing infrequently which limits its ceiling.
The pitch has a 26.2% CSW%, above average for changeups, as it’s built on a 17.5% SwStr%.
To make this combo more effective, Myers needs to throw more strikes with the cutter and use the changeup for whiffs. It may require refined command but can limit lefty success against him.
Myers also has a show-me curveball that has a 23.6% called strike rate. It’s mostly an early count pitch that doesn’t get whiffs either.
The Results and Outlook
Myers has had two different spells with the Brewers this year. His first four stats consisted of a 5.29 ERA and FIP over 7, which is not so encouraging. Since coming back, he’s posted a 2.87 ERA and 3.38 FIP. There hasn’t been a significant change in usage between the two different stints outside of a move away from the curveball (which halved its already low usage).
Although his 21.5% K% and 7.3% BB% don’t suggest anything special is happening here, Myers has the makings of a reliable arm. He’s got a good fastball and multiple secondaries that can improve with slightly more command.
Myers is currently fourth in the Brewers rotation, behind Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale, and Colin Rea. With no service time before this year, Myers has the opportunity to continue to carve out a future role in Milwaukee. The Brewers found another arm out of thin air that can provide valuable big-league innings, and Myers looks like he could stay for a while.
Myers has what it takes to produce he lead AA in strikeouts. He has proven he can go 8 innings two times. He does not get flustered. He is the Brewers Ace this year and deserves to be there more so he is a smart baseball player and extremely athletic!