I released my massive Top 400 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball 2025 at the end of February and an updated version of The List – Top 100 Starting Pitchers last week (which you should absolutely read if you haven’t already!) and decided to leverage that into some smaller articles relating to guys you could target for specific categories or at certain times in your draft. You can find this article, and other similar ones, in our 2025 Draft Kit.
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Below are the Top 15 SP/RP eligible players for 2025 drafts.
1. Jackson Jobe (DET, RHP)
I don’t care for Jobe. YOU TAKE THAT BACK. Sure, he doesn’t have elite vert. Or extension. And didn’t get all the whiffs in the ultra brief look we got of him. But the dude throws hard, has a massive variety of pitches (he’s up to six now!) and profiles out to be a legit arm with velocity and a kitchen sink of filth.
Or not. The situation is simple: If he earns a spot on the rotation, you dang well better draft the guy. If he doesn’t, I imagine the Tigers will keep him in the minors until May or so, possibly saving bullets and stretching him out slowly so he can be ready when he appears. I’m not the biggest fan of stashing him across that time – April rosters spots are valuable yo! – but I’d imagine he’d be a Top 60 SP the moment he arrives. Do what you like with that information, I’m going to suggest you draft him now and possibly drop if he doesn’t make the rotation out of camp. Cool? Cool.
I’m guessing that the Tigers will have Maeda and Jobe on the team, piggybacking for the fifth spot in the rotation for the first month in an effort to limit Jobe’s workload for the season. After that? It’s game time. Jobe is a premier talent who hasn’t racked up the strikeouts quite yet, but has all the stuff to do so. Believe in this kid, y’all.
Quick Take: Jobe didn’t have as ultra dominant of a 2024 as we expected throughout the minors, but if he’s deserving of a roster spot out of camp, you dang well better take the flamethrower on your fantasy teams.
2. Clay Holmes (NYM, RHP)
Y’all may think this is a weird move, but I can see it. A sinkerballer like Holmes is better positioned as a starter given how dependent it is on BABIP, which normalizes over 5/6 innings better than an incredibly small sample in the ninth. In addition, it creates quicker outs than others, especially with Holmes’ high strike rates across the board. Throw in two secondaries that earn 19%+ SwStr rates against RHB and it makes sense.
But what about LHB? That’s the question. Holmes hurled tons of sinkers to LHB last year and while the raw results weren’t great (.368 BABIP), it had a sub 40% ICR and 73% groundball rate – better than I anticipated. There isn’t a secondary that fits well into his mix as of now (sweepers and sliders aren’t ideal), though I’m expecting Holmes to showcase an expanded arsenal come spring, likely including a cutter and/or changeup.
The most difficult part about projecting the RP –> SP move is their stuff expectation. Holmes sat 96/97 mph last year and will likely drop 2-3 ticks next year in order to save enough in the tank for a full outing. Does that make his sinker that much less effective? What about the slider and sweeper performance? We simply don’t know at the moment and I can see my ranking of Holmes shifting once we get a clear idea of Holmes in camp by mid-March.
Without a clear understanding of what version of Holmes we’ll see – What is he adding to the arsenal? How will an expected velocity dip affect his stuff? – I’m inclined to test the waters with different options in my drafts. That said, I’d go for it every time if I can snag Holmes in the final few rounds. Let’s get a glimpse of what we’ll see, then make a quick decision to drop or hold for another option. In deeper formats, I think Holmes is too much of a question without a massive ceiling to turn down a safer option.
Quick Take: Holmes is transitioning to the rotation and it’s tough to make out what we’ll get. Expect an expanded arsenal and lower velocity, which may coalesce into a productive starter, or a frustrating 4.00+ ERA with a high WHIP and 20% strikeout rate.
3. Grant Holmes (ATL, RHP)
I like The Real Estate Broker a lot. Holmes boasted three pitches with a 15%+ SwStr rate, 65%+ strike rate, and sub 40% ICR against RHB with his four-seamer spotting the edges, opening the doors for filthy sliders and curveballs. It was awesome. Small sample size of just under 70 IP, yes, but still awesome.
There are some warning signs against LHB, though. His four-seamer’s strength is precision against RHB that is simply not there against LHB with so many wasted armside and off the plate, which isn’t the worst thing – it’s his most hittable pitch, after all – but the pitches that land inside the zone are well inside the zone. Not great.
The slider and curve make up the slack, though. Both returned absurd 70%+ Strike rates at a 24% SwStr clip, and even with his slider returning a ghastly 50%+ ICR, contact wasn’t made enough for Holmes to struggle in the small sample.
Now that Atlanta hasn’t acquired significant depth, Holmes should be the #4 starter out of camp and in a position to hold a rotation spot once Strider returns – it’s rare for something not to break after a month into the year. With a longer leash and starting every five days on a winning club, Holmes looks to be a great sleeper target for all-around production at a cheap cost.
Quick Take: The heater’s strong precision against RHB allows the elite slider and curve to take center stage without the punishment we normally see from breaker-focused arms. There may be some struggles against LHB that need a changeup or cutter to ease the blow, but Holmes should return plenty of value in all formats at his late draft price.
4. Drew Rasmussen (TBR, RHP)
I’m all for grabbing Rasmussen in 12-teamers. But he could end up in the bullpen! Yes, and then we drop him if he does. If he’s in the rotation, you have an absurd contact suppressor rooted in a lively four-seamer/sinker mix with one of the better cutters around that’s just so hard to read. But the cutter wasn’t good in 2024! Very fair – his feel for the cutter took a significant step back from what we saw in 2022 and 2023, though I’m willing to give him the ‘ole “Small sample size” pass for now.
I wouldn’t expect a 25%+ strikeout rate from Rasmussen again given his lean into cutters and sinkers, though the four-seamer’s velocity did jump to 96/97 (possibly because of his limited usage and time in the pen) and it’s possible the four-seamer adds another weapon to putaway RHB. The floor is fantastic with a reliable ratio arm who should sit comfortably above a 20% strikeout rate, the only question is usage at this point.
Quick Take: Rasmussen’s trio of fastballs via four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters with varying movement baffles hitters into weak outs, while there is still strikeout upside to be had. Be cautious: He may be regulated to the pen after his long injury history, but he’s worth the late pick on the chance he gets the starting gig out of camp. Be ready to drop him if he becomes a reliever.
5. Kris Bubic (KCR, LHP)
Snip snap snip snap, Bubic has toyed with our hearts over the years and now seems like the best time to be interested. Bubic returned from TJS and spent time in the pen last season showcasing 93 mph with stellar marks on all pitches to both handed batters. Changeups taking down RHB, sliders taking their job seriously against LHB, and the four-seamer surprising for whiffs upstairs late. Now that he has a clear path to be SP #5 in Kansas City, we’re all curious if he can keep the gains across five or more frames consistently.
I have a few concerns. First, velocity typically drops shifting from pen to rotation and we’ve seen Bubic’s four-seamer fail when it falls to 91 mph as it was often before he underwent TJS. We’ve also some arms keep most of their velocity gains when transitioning to the rotation (Garrett Crochet, Grant Holmes, etc.) though I’d be cautious here.
I’ve also made a habit of berating (kindly, of course) Bubic for his inability to land his changeup down with any regularity. It floats too high or sails armside off the plate and while it was productive last season, I still need to see him do it across multiple starts.
That said, I need to express my excitement for Bubic’s new slider that he introduced in 2023 and kept in 2024. It takes down LHB far better than the old curve and with a legit weapon to both LHB and RHB, the four-seamer simply has to survive to make this work. Bubic also added three inches of extension, allowing for a flatter release to 1.2 “HAVAA” with his four-seamer, on top of extra cut-action and vertical break to the pitch. This isn’t the Bubic of old, y’all. But the changeup…? OKAY A LITTLE OF THE OLD BUBIC. (Bubic actually went 60%+ Low Location on the changeup in his ultra-short 2023 sample and in his 27 relief appearances, far better than his 40-50% clips of old!)
Keep an eye on Bubic plenty during the spring. If the four-seamer is sitting at least 92 mph and he’s comfortable with both sliders and changeups, I’ll be heavily considering him as an SP #5 flier. Does that mean you’re drafting him? Ideally, no. I’d see Bubic as the guy I pick up to replace the SP who started opening weekend. Considering he’s currently going around pick #400 and is far from a big name, I imagine he’ll slip past many in your standard 12-teamers. Deeper leagues? He should be drafted well before then given a decent spring.
Quick Take: The fifth rotation spot is Bubic’s to lose with Marsh’s setback and should be monitored closely in the spring. If he’s sitting 92 mph with solid changeups and sliders, he could be a fantastic sleeper for a solid strikeout rate and good ratios on a possible playoff squad.
6. Nick Martinez (CIN, RHP)
Those of y’all who didn’t abandon your leagues for football (Gasp!) in July will remember Martinez’s fantastic performance once he became a starter in early August – 2.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22% K rate, 3% BB rate across 63.1 IP and 11 starts. It was a “league winner” type run and you may be inclined to chase it again.
I originally thought I’d be out and I still may be for 12-teamers (Don’t draft Tobys y’all), but I see how this works. I adore Martinez’s command and ability to work many pitches into his mix, even if he lacks an overpowering heater or whiff-heavy breaker. The sinker jams RHB consistently, the four-seamer is often saved for two-strike counts up (with 17-18″ of vert!) against RHB (please save it more, the extension and “HAVAA” at 92/93 mph is troubling), and his changeup is a massive success against both LHB and RHB.
The real question is his cutter and slider. Neither has formed into a reliable whiff pitch, while the cutter is used as a strike offering over the plate that I wish did a bit more. The changeup is gorgeous and needs to be relied upon heavily to keep batters honest (a little more, to be honest), but if Martinez can figure out his slider or cutter to nullify RHB a touch more, then we may see a 1.10/1.15 WHIP season that flirts with a 25% strikeout rate.
I have to express some concern that the Reds have plenty of options for their rotation and Martinez has a history of moving to the pen when needed. Yes, it drives me up the wall as I want to see him get a chance to regularly start to find the groove he deserves to be in, and it may happen once again even if they express that they want him as a starter (they did last off-season, too!). Monitor the situation in the spring and if Martinez is locked into the rotation, keep an eye on him in deeper formats or as a possible “Toby”/streamer in your shallower leagues.
Quick Take: Martinez still lacks an overpowering heater or whiff-heavy breaker, but the sinker command and elite changeup merged with a deep pitch-mix make a potential ratio-arm with a tinge of upside if the changeup gets more airtime or his slider/cutter takes a step forward. I just wish he weren’t in Cincy…
6. Jordan Hicks (SFG, RHP)
Update: Hicks is threw 97/98 mph across 5.2 IP in his 3/19 outing for the Giants and I’m more interested than I’ve been all off-season.
Do you believe that Hicks can throw strikes with his sweeper and splitter? I don’t, and especially not against LHB. Oh golly, he needed help against LHB and that splitter abandoned the cause when Hicks was the in rotation, reliable somewhat only against RHB…which was supposed to be the sweeper’s whole shtick, but even it had a sub 57% strike rate against RHB when things were “good” across his first fifteen starts.
The sinker had to do too dang much. It worked against RHB (Gasp), but LHB pounced on it like they do most sinkers. The Giants moved Hicks back to the pen in the second half and plan to have him start once again this year, though I’m not sure I want to play this game. If strikes are flowing, it can work, though he’s not an efficient pitcher who can cross six frames often (just three of those fifteen games came with six complete innings), making the return not as high as you’d want. Hicks isn’t the 12-teamer play I want to make early, though I can see gravitation toward him if he’s displaying a refined set of secondaries early in the year. In fifteen teamers, you can take a shot on Hicks winning the #5 spot out of camp and finding a groove for at least five innings per start with 4/5 strikeouts per game. I’m not too hopeful this will work out, especially with the depth of options ready to go for the Giants.
Quick Take: Hicks’ sweeper and splitter let him down in 2024, failing to earn strikes consistently and allowing batters to be patient for a walk or a hittable sinker. I lack the confidence Hicks will take a major step forward with either pitch in his second chance at the Giants rotation, though he could be a regular “Toby” if he does.
7. Hayden Wesneski (HOU, RHP)
Wesneski’s sweeper has stolen our hearts for years. As expected, it performed well against RHB last season, but as not expected, it arguably performed better against LHB last season with a stupid good 22% ICR and 19% SwStr rate. It was due to a heavy two-strike usage and incredible efficiency with the pitch down-and-inside, acting as a back-foot slider. Fun stuff. I’m highly skeptical the breaker can perform just as well across a full season and five to six innings inside a single game, but at least there’s a record of it working.
My larger concern comes from the rest of the arsenal. He spots his sinker well inside to RHB – great! – but the four-seamer is highly suspect and gets far too much of the plate, even at seven feet of extension. I’d feel a lot more comfortable with Wesneski if he could go the Wheeler method and get that dang four-seamer upstairs to pair with the sinker better.
In addition, the LHB approach isn’t refined. Outside of the late sweeper, Wesneski goes four-seamer/cutter, which shows some promise (especially the cutter), but the heater gets a ton of the plate and should not replicate its low ICR from 2024…unless the cutter is played off it better and dances between the four-seamer to confound batters with his great extension. It’s a bit of a reach (ha!) and I wouldn’t have expectations for it to come together.
The Astros sure seem to have faith in Wesneski as their SP #5, though. There are only a handful of other options (mostly two prospects without a start in the bigs) and pitching for the ‘Stros is a good situation to be in. I’m concerned we won’t see the mega upside we once envisioned when he unveiled the breaker way back in 2022 (what a day that was as a follower!) and I’m really looking for to seeing Wesneski in the spring. He’ll have the open track to being a starter for the first time in his career and it could mean a shift in approach across the board.
Quick Take: Wesneski is an interesting late flier given his clear claim to the fifth spot of the Astros’ rotation, though he lacks a bit of meat in the arsenal to build upon his legit sweeper. His spring could be highly illuminating and with his potential first matchup of the year coming against the Giants, he could be a great backup option if your early flier doesn’t pan out over opening weekend.
9. Bowden Francis (TOR, RHP)
Okay. I’ve spent a whole lot of time trying to decipher what the h*ck that run was in 2024. Here’s what I’ve got:
Francis shifted from his curveball to sliders against RHB nearly exclusively. He also tossed more splitters to LHB and introduced a sinker (10% of the time) to RHB.
All of that was generally better, but not really the answer. The slider was meh, the splitter was actually kinda good against RHB, and the sinker worked, but generated nine outs in that stretch. Not really the reason.
Nope. I’ve found the actual reason and I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. Francis’ four-seamer was unstoppable. It induced sub 30% ICR marks to both LHB and RHB, leading to stupid low BABIPs that are obviously unsustainable (we’re talking .103 and .109 BABIPs off four-seamers, y’all), but there’s more to it. He changed the four-seamer.
Instead of focusing on vert and velo, he became a 92/93 mph cut fastball pitcher. He located the pitch down-and-inside to LHB, who in turn lofted it into the air 67% of the time for a quarter of flyballs but just eight total hits. Eight! To his other half, Bowden kept the pitch up-and-away and also generated a ton of flyballs with only four hits allowed. That’s absolutely wild to see across nine games, especially when you remember he allowed five hits off his RHB to the Astros in his first game of the season. Oh how far he has come.
Is this something that can carry over into 2025? I’m leaning no. Sure, the extra cut action obviously helps, but it’s unwise to bank on precise command and BABIP working in your favor, especially without secondaries that do a whole lot of work as a backup plan when the four-seamer isn’t in a perfect groove. It was a wonderful run and he’s sure to have more of them. The tough schedule in April is looming and I’d be worried with Francis inside my rotation.
Quick Take: Francis’ made tweaks that surprised batters in the second half and propelled a phenomenal run down the stretch. It’s unlikely he’ll have the same run out of the gate, especially with the tough Jays schedule early in the year, and I’d be cautious about grabbing him in drafts.
10. Luis L. Ortiz (CLE, RHP)
Ortiz’s greatest skillset is his ICR% – none of his four offerings returned a 40% ICR in 2024 – and that could very well continue with the Guardians. I just wish the man earned whiffs with his slider like he used to back in 2022, but alas, he’s not throwing 98+ mph heaters anymore, but sitting 96 mph instead. It turns his slider from Wipeout McGee to Mr. Fine, with its performance against LHB being a major issue – sub 60% strike rate and a 50% ICR. I don’t love chasing Ortiz as a pitch-to-contact arm who can’t eclipse a 20% strikeout rate, though I’m not seeing where we can expect major gains in putaway rate to make a major jump next year, as I’m skeptical his heaters can continue to perform as well next year considering their questionable locations.
Maybe the scenario in Cleveland is more helpful than we’re giving him credit for (well, PNC Park to Progressive Field doesn’t help, but more Wins! Yay!) and he can use his flat attack angle to get more whiffs on the four-seamer…though its extreme sink may counteract it too much to jump past a 13% SwStr rate to RHB.
He’s an interesting flier especially if he’s starting opening weekend and gets to pitch against the Royals followed by the Angels and CrySox. However, if he’s the SP #4 or SP #5? That would be the Padres. I’m not taking the chance there, especially with the realistic ceiling being a high-end “Toby”.
Quick Take: Ortiz has solid hard contact suppression skills but struggles to rack up strikeouts and doesn’t have a clear path to getting more. He could develop into a “Toby” on a winning club, making him a solid 15-teamer target, but not the ideal 12-teamer pitcher to target.
11. Kyle Hart (SDP, LHP)
Hart was the KBO’s equivalent of the Cy Young winner last season and the Padres signed him with the full intent of being their SP #5. MLB Trade Rumors outlines Hart with a four-seamer up and exceptional changeup underneath, an approach that we’ve seen work for LHP across the majors. There’s a sweeper to deal with LHB as well and it led to a 29% strikeout rate in 157 IP with just 6% walks. It’s the KBO, of course, but that should outline his control and a fair amount of strikeout potential.
And of course, Lance Brodzdowski did a stupid good breakdown of Hart via his must-read Substack. He isn’t so confident in the stuff here and it makes all the sense.
Huh. I wonder how good that changeup actually is and if the sweeper is good enough to make LHB suffer. I suspect the four-seamer is a weak point that he’ll have to get crafty finding spots for, but maybe a sinker against LHB and a heavy focus on the slowball + backdoor sweepers will be enough to mask the pitch. This is all speculation, of course, but I’d be willing to take a shot in an NL-Only league as a sleeper Toby play. H*ck, he could be a sneaky play in 15-teamers or even a streamer in 12-teamers given regular starts in San Diego and no other clear options to steal the SP #5 spot. Pay attention.
Quick Take: Hart may be a crafty southpaw with a great changeup who does enough to give you middling ratios across six frames for a Win and potential QS. Or be a detrimental player who isn’t worth your time. At the very least, he has the inside lane to the SP #5 spot for the Padres and there’s value to be had in that.
12. Osvaldo Bido (ATH, RHP)
This is something. Bido’s four-seamer was your quintissential “Oh jeez, oh my, don’t hurt me, I’m just going to hang out over here off the plate or barely on the edge” pitch to both RHB and LHB, favoring glove-side and off the plate to the former, and up-and-away to the latter. It led to an overall 60% strike rate on the pitch, falling to just 57% against RHB. However, it led to stupid low hard contact off the pitch, especially with the cutter getting mixed in and muddying the waters. Throw in a “Dancing With The Disco” approach with his slider (20%+ usage at 75% strikes!) that also came with whiffability against RHB and Bido was able to have a nice little stretch of games where batters weren’t passive enough and he hit his spots when he needed to.
That is not a way to live throughout a full season, sadly. The four-seamer on its own is far from impressive and I sincerely question his command over the long haul. It’s a pedestrian fastball with an effective slider and volatile cutter. If he leans harder on the slider (it does get crushed more than ideal given its frequent “whatever” approach over the plate) , improves the cutter, and keeps avoiding destruction off the fastball, there’s a path to sustainable. That’s more IFs than an app’s source code, sadly, and I have little interest.
13. Michael Lorenzen (KCR, RHP)
Lorenzen is a dude who tries. He really tries. He’s got all the pitches you’d ever want, but none of them are what you’re looking for. Watching Lorenzen pitch is like scanning a diner menu and realizing you don’t want to eat any of it. Sure, the changeup can be pretty at times, but it ain’t reliable and is more of a chase pitch in two-strike counts than something like Wacha’s plan of “get me to the Changgggeup!” (Bonus points if you read that like Arnold). I dig the cutter to LHB as he aims to jam them inside, I hate how he can’t actually get the sinker inside to RHB, and even he elected to turn away from “Dancing With The Disco” after realizing his slider simply isn’t very good. It turns Lorenzen into a deep league “Toby” and a rare streamer for the majority of us in 12-teamers.
Quick Take: The fastballs are pedestrian and his breaking pitches have moments but lack the electricity to push him into a considerable add for most leagues. Maybe for a weekly stream here and there, but even then I’d have low expectations.
14. Michael Soroka (WSN, RHP)
This is not the career we anticipated for Soroka after a promising glimpse in 2018 and a glistening rookie campaign as a true future workhorse across 175 IP and a 2.68 ERA at just 22-years-old. After injuries galore and a move to Chicago, Soroka failed to take full advantage of a tumultuous rotation and found himself in the pen (and doing his best to avoid yet another injury). Expect the Nationals to let Soroka fly as much as possible in 2025 and I’d be surprised if Soroka didn’t lean into more approach changes in the season ahead – after all, he was touted as a “veteran” arm at such a young age for his pitchability. Soroka is a tinkerer who could find his command of old.
The slider was a major step forward last year with legit depth that hints at more of a curve than hard gyro, though he struggled to earn the strikes he wanted from the pitch to devastate RHB. In addition, his lack of inside sinkers nor display of his classic command made him far more hittable than ideal.
His lack of consistent changeup made it tough against LHB, as well. The slowball’s elite horizontal break brings potential for the future, though it can be difficult to wield a pitch with such extreme movement. That said, given regular starts for the first time in six years, Soroka has the chance to find his old groove and provide sneaky value in 15-teamers for volume alone at decent-enough ratios. You may even find yourself streaming him in 12-teamers on a desperate Sunday given his expected 90+ pitch leash.
Quick Take: Soroka hasn’t had a chance to blossom since his 2019 season and could have his former command to become a “Toby” during the year. Look for his slider and changeup strike rates to improve, while the sinker needs to jam RHB more often than its sub 40% inside location in 2024.
15. Steven Matz (STL, LHP)
Here’s a stat: Across all ten seasons in the majors, Matz has never held a WHIP of 1.20 or lower. Sure, it’s possible this is the season it all comes together, and if that’s the hill you want to die on, knock yourself out. Matz has been trying to force his sinker dominance for ages and while it somehow had an 18% ICR to LHB last year (small sample, y’all), he did so by landing backdoor called strikes, not by jamming them inside. It’s not sustainable.
That sinker fails often against RHB, too, though his changeup shows promise as my favorite offering in his tool chest. Maybe he can lean more into it and turn the corner? Naaaaah, let’s leave the Matz outside the house for others to see.
Quick Take: Why am I still writing these quick takes this far down the rankings?! Matz’ sinker is overused and needs more help than his changeup provides. This ain’t it y’all.
BONUS NAMES
16. Albert Suarez (BAL, RHP)
Update: Suarez is battling for the #5 spot with Cade Povich and could be in long relief. If he gets regular starts, he’s more appealing.
I remember when Suárez appeared out of nowhere during spring last year, firing 96 mph heaters upstairs with ease and returning all the whiffs. It was fun. And then he got his shot and actually produced a bit…? Thing is, that heater is only effective against LHB (14-15% SwStr!) while RHB were able to tee off the heater, resulting in the cutter having far more success. I wish the cutter was able to dominate both LHB and RHB, but Suárez is forced to go with an 11% SwStr rate changeup against LHB and I’m not sure it’s enough for me to chase. Sure, the putaway rates last year were far lower than expected, which could help him comfortably eclipse 20% strikeouts this year, but I want more.
I don’t expect Suárez in the rotation to start the year (that’s Sugano’s job) but if there’s an opening, I’m favoring him over Povich, leading to a possible depth add in AL-Only leagues. There are so many more options in 12-teamers and even 15-teamers are likely better off with other fliers than Suárez who is unlikely to have a new trick up his sleeve.
Quick Take: The strikeout may come up a bit if he gets another routine shot in the rotation, but even then, I don’t trust the three-pitch mix enough to trust him regularly. There’s some deep AL-Only appeal if he has a job, while 12-teamers can mostly ignore him.
17. Mitch Spence (ATH, RHP)
3/19/24 UPDATE: Unfortunately, Mitch Spence will open the season in the bullpen for the Athletics.
Think of Graham Ashcraft with six ticks worse velocity + a solid curve against LHB and you have Spence. The cutter works against LHB, struggles against RHB, while the slider is the opposite, thankful for a curveball to operate 20% of the time to help deal with left-handers, albeit the majority of which occur in two-strike counts. The sinker is also akin to Ashcraft in that he struggles to locate the dang thing, adding a ghastly smear to his report card with its sub 50% strike rate against RHB despite 24% usage. Jeeeeez. How do you make Spence a reliable arm? Simple. Figure out how to command the sinker to RHB and throw harder. That probably won’t happen. Yeah, probably not. That said, if he’s at least able to take a step forward in spotting the cutter to RHB, he can continue to flirt with a sub 4.00 ERA without falling under a 20% strikeout rate. It’ll be just his second year in the bigs, don’t rule out a step forward of some fashion.
Quick Take: Spence’s slider and cutter are PLV darlings and if he finds some velocity, it can be a reliable one-two punch for good ratios with a tinge of strikeout potential.
