Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers – Breakout Player Edition

Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.

Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?

PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.

It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls, however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.

Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!

This week, we will be looking at the great pitchers who have looked excellent this year. These guys have made waves and have had fantasy managers scrambling to lock them onto their teams. But are they as good as we think? That’s the question for today. Let’s see what PLA has to say.

(Also, if a pitcher you want to see analyzed isn’t on here, that’s okay! We will have plenty of chances to talk about other pitchers and this won’t be the only analyzing breakout players edition of this series. So stay tuned!)

 

Jesús Luzardo – 3.41 PLA

 

Have the Phillies fixed Jesús Luzardo? It sure seems that way. The production has been sensational this year, and honestly, PLA would agree with this assessment.

Prior to this year, Luzardo wasn’t really a PLA darling across any of his seasons. In fact, he usually was below league average in the stat. However, now he’s hovering around the top 20 mark in PLA among pitchers with at least 500 pitches thrown, and it is a great thing to see.

Luzardo has always been known to have a bit of spotty command, which is why he’s been prone to having those blowup starts. His fastball also has not been the greatest. It has the velocity you want out of a flamethrowing lefty, yes, but the shape is pretty poor. It comes in steep and has very little vertical movement, and that’s not even touching on the poor extension on the pitch.

I say this because, despite these flaws that have brought down his PLA in the past, he still has a really solid number in 2025. This could actually be somewhat sustainable, which is awesome to see from Luzardo.

And while we will have an article that will break down individual pitch types, I’m including the PLA individual pitch visualizers just to give some context behind the overall PLA number.

 

MacKenzie Gore – 3.72 PLA

 

(Note: PLV stats and xStats do not include May 11 start)

MacKenzie Gore has looked really good in plenty of his starts this year, marking a bit of an improvement from his previous campaigns. He’s always had those starts where we’re like “woah, this is the best pitcher we’ve seen”, before spiralling and struggling the rest of the way. It’s looking like he’s tightening up a bit, but not too much, as he is MacKenzie Gore after all. He’s known for being a bit inconsistent, which largely stems from spotty command.

PLA paints a picture of an arm that is good, but isn’t necessarily likely to continuously put up ratios/an ERA that you’d expect from a top pitcher in a rotation. As you can see with his arsenal, he doesn’t have a total shutdown pitch outside of his four-seam fastball, which he uses almost half the time. He’s another example of a pitcher who needs to tighten up the secondaries, which is reflected by PLA. You might notice a pattern in this article, as inconsistent secondaries can sink a pitcher, both in terms of ERA estimators as well as in terms of actual results.

 

Bryan Woo – 3.06 PLA

 

As our fearless leader would say, the train goes WOO WOO!

Bryan Woo is a personal favorite of mine, as I am just a sucker for both of his fastballs. PLA is perhaps an even bigger fan of Woo than I am, as it places him squarely as a top 10 pitcher, and yeah, Woo is awesome. His stuff is great, and he has the potential to be arguably the best command arm in the game? I know it’s crazy, but PLV and by extension PLA showcase this.

It will be interesting to see if Woo’s PLA estimates decrease even more as he gets more comfortable with the offspeed stuff. Right now, his calling card is the fastball, both sinker and four-seamer. Per PLV, the slider has looked legitimate this year, though it sees nowhere near the usage numbers of his faster stuff (or of many of the top-tier sliders from other pitchers).

All in all, PLA loves Bryan Woo, and you should too. He’s got the makings of a mini-Zack Wheeler, and he plays in arguably the premier pitcher’s park.

 

Tyler Mahle – 2.93 PLA

 

The Tyler Mahle Linsanity run might not be a Linsanity run after all, at least not according to PLA. Despite being viewed as not much more than a back-of-the-rotation guy at the start of the season, Mahle has put together a run of starts with incredible ratios, becoming arguably the Rangers’ team MVP.

If you look at the table above, it’s pretty clear that the more outcomes-based estimators do not paint a pretty picture of Mahle. He’s not getting a lot of strikeouts and he hasn’t kept his walk rates down, which is why these stats are fairly alarming. PLA, however, ranks him as the fourth-best starter with at least 500 pitches thrown, only behind unhittable aces like Tarik Skubal, Jacob deGrom, and Shota Imanaga??? Y’know what, good for Shota, we love him. But as for Mahle, it’s pretty easy to see why his PLA is so great when you look at his arsenal. Again, there’s a different article for breaking down the PLA of individual pitches, but all three of his fastballs have been great, even if he lacks the velocity of many of his counterparts. While many are doubting Mahle because of the more well-known peripherals, if you trust PLA and PLV as evaluation tools, then you probably think that Mahle is legit.

 

Nick Pivetta – 3.01 PLA

 

(Note: PLV stats and xStats do not include May 11 start)

The pride of Victoria, British Columbia, Nick Pivetta, has looked fantastic this year. Yes, we’ve seen him put up some incredible gems in the past, but this feels different; it feels like he has found consistency. PLA would agree with this assessment, as he is currently top 10 in the stat among pitchers with at least 500 pitches thrown.

Pivetta’s four-seam fastball, like always, leads the charge. It’s an offering with extreme vertical movement, which is reflected by its high PLV. The sweeper is the other key to Pivetta, as it has been his most relied-upon secondary for a couple of years now. While pitchers who rely on sweepers can sometimes not perform the best, Pivetta’s offering can be trusted because it’s just so good. It gets a lot of swings-and-misses, largely because of its great movement and Pivetta’s ability to command the pitch. The curve and sinker are a bit iffy, but the cutter is nice, maybe we can see more of it? Either way, PLA views Pivetta as an excellent arm, and if you believe in the tenets of the stats, then you should buy on Pivetta.

 

Kris Bubic – 3.48 PLA

 

So I recently did a bit of a deep dive on Kris Bubic, which you can find here. I didn’t touch on PLA in that, though, so here’s my opportunity to talk about Bubic again!

Bubic is quickly becoming one of the game’s top crafty lefties. He’s getting swings and misses on his arsenal like crazy, which is highlighted by a four-seamer with great shape and a classic whiff-worthy changeup that a lefty strikeout artist has to have.

3.58 PLA seems pretty on the mark for Bubic. He probably has a lower ceiling and floor than most of this list, but he still projects nicely as a key piece of a really solid rotation. He is definitely one of those pitchers you keep on your fantasy rosters throughout the year and trust that he will give you a productive outing more often than not.

 

Hunter Brown – 3.73 PLA

 

2025 is the Hunter Brown true breakout year. He’s been a bit of a polarizing arm in the fantasy baseball world, as some have viewed him as a top-tier ace for some time now, while others have questioned whether he would ever even reach that mark. But it’s clear that the pitcher they called the next Justin Verlander has taken that next step towards being a top-of-the-line starter.

Still, PLA is somewhat out on Brown. A 3.67 ERA would be nothing to scoff at in the real world, but compared to the mark that he has this year, it seems that the stat is pessimistic on him. This is probably due to PLV in general not being as high on the pitches in his mix, which makes sense. Hunter Brown’s success is going to come from his fastball, which is an upper-90s offering with a decent shape and extension. Everything else is the cherry on top, and PLA will reflect that. If he can improve his secondaries, then his PLA will be more in line with the results.

I do have to say, though, it is still a bit surprising at first glance to see Brown’s PLA as the lowest in this group of guys. As you can see, his outcomes-based estimators show a pitcher who is among the elite of the elites. Again, though, the lack of incredible secondaries explains this.

 

Hunter Greene – 3.22 PLA