Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls, however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
This week, we will be looking at some pitchers who in some way, shape or form have disappointed this year. The scale of their disappointment and context may vary, but either way, these guys have frustrated managers at points. But despite them not having the prettiest statlines, PLA doesn’t always agree with what the results indicate. So, let’s see what PLA says about these “disappointing” players.
Tanner Bibee – 4.47 PLA
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | PLA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.57 | 3.85 | 5.09 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.47 |
Looking at just ERA alone, you might think this is a pretty standard year for Tanner Bibee. However, if you move your eyes right and glance through the table above, it doesn’t look as pretty.
This was supposed to be the year that Bibee took the big step forward. He looked like a potential ace in his rookie year and followed it up with a somewhat up-and-down season in 2024 that ultimately gave us reason to still be in on him. Now, his strikeout rate has plummeted, his walk rate is up a bit, and he’s allowing more hits than the previous years, despite the lower BABIP.
So is this something to worry about? PLA indicates yes.
Bibee is coming off an incredibly strong start against a formidable Tigers lineup, and we hope he can build off that. For now, though, there is plenty of reason to be concerned with his arsenal. His four-seamer has some of the worst metrics of any primary heater among the game’s big-name pitchers, and the cutter that has been so successful for him in the past has been inconsistent. His best pitch per PLV? That would be the sweeper that he honestly doesn’t lean into enough, as we saw that it can be quite effective in his most recent start.
Bibee has been concerning this year per most ERA estimators, though perhaps if we’re patient with him, he can turn it around, as he looked a lot better in his most recent start.
Corbin Burnes – 4.57 PLA
Corbin Burnes is in a pretty similar scenario to Bibee. He has a really strong ERA (his best since 2021) and is coming off a few great outings. Still, PLA isn’t entirely buying it.
The key to Burnes’ success is his cutter. In his heyday with the Brewers, he relied on that pitch, throwing it well over 50% of the time. He used it less last year in Baltimore, but he seems to be leaning into it again this year. Unfortunately, PLV doesn’t approve of his decision, as it gives the pitch a poorer grade this year than ever before. His secondaries haven’t looked much better either, as the curveball and sinker grade out poorly per PLV as well. The slider is actually his best pitch per PLV, though it’s a rarity in his arsenal at 9% usage, and the actual results with the pitch haven’t been up to par compared to in previous years.
Is Corbin Burnes really a 4.57 ERA guy? You probably know that the answer is no. However, PLV and by extension PLA show that perhaps Burnes isn’t going to end the season as the 2.73 ERA guy either, and other ERA estimator stats seem to agree. He’s a veteran who knows how to take on quality lineups, but the stuff and execution is not at the level of the Burnes in Milwaukee who was vying for the title of SP1.
Taj Bradley – 4.52 PLA
As our fearless leader would say, it’s the Taj Bradley experience.
So by now, Bradley has become associated with the high-ceiling, low-floor chaos that fantasy managers debate all day over whether it’s worth chasing or not. So how is he a disappointing player if he’s known to be high risk? Simple, we haven’t seen that high-ceiling play from him this year.
Bradley’s strikeout rate this season is way down, while his walk rate is way up. When he first entered the league, the strikeout-to-walk ratio was something that he excelled in, and the command struggles mainly were related to his throwing it down the middle too much. Now, he has extreme donut command, and PLA seems to agree that he isn’t worth chasing.
The issue for Bradley is that his stuff is all over the place. His fastball is a high-velocity offering with great vertical movement, even outside the Trop. Yet it grades out as an average pitch because he misses with it way too much. His two main secondaries, the cutter and splitter, have serious potential to be great offerings, but again, he doesn’t have any consistency with the pitch’s location. It’s important to note that his slow 12-6 curve also really hinders his PLA, as PLV really does not approve of the offering at all. This makes sense, as super loopy and slow curves don’t provide a lot of value, especially when they don’t get strikes.
I would say that out of all of these guys, Bradley’s PLA estimate seems the most accurate strictly off of vibes. It’s hard to imagine his ERA looking like anything but 4.5ish this year unless anything changes. He’s near that range now, but let’s see how it goes.
Zac Gallen – 4.07 PLA
This year has been the definition of “one step forward, two steps back” for Zac Gallen. He opened the season with a brutal (but symmetrical) line against the Cubs, which had us all worrying if his days as an ace were done. He then came back with an ELITE start against the Yankees where his signature curve absolutely DESTROYED and DEMOLISHED an elite lineup. Everything looked good for Gallen, and then he proceeded to have another ugly start. For every great Gallen start, it feels like we get a few ugly ones.
It’s a bit surprising at first that PLA likes Gallen a lot more than some of these other struggling pitchers. Sure, those guys haven’t brought their A-games, but Gallen has been a guy who many have dropped out of frustration. The key to Gallen staying afloat in terms of PLA is his curveball. It is one of the best secondary offerings in MLB, and has been for quite some time. He gets the pitch low, which allows him to rack up swings-and-misses galore on it. There’s a reason that plenty of his best starts this year have seen a lot of curveball action while the ones where he’s shelved the pitch have been mediocre.
Gallen is frustrating, yes, but PLA says that his ERA is inflated and that the skills show a better pitcher than what we’ve seen so far. If you buy low now, maybe you can cash in on those sweet positive regression games.
Jack Flaherty – 4.30 PLA
So the “disappointment” of Jack Flaherty has been interesting, as I didn’t view him as a traditional disappointment candidate, and I almost forgot to include him here. What’s been disappointing with Flaherty is that every time it’s looked like he’s solidified himself as an ace this year, he’s had an inning or a start that has made you question your faith in him. We all want to see the Tigers’ Flaherty of last year, but that isn’t something we’ve gotten with consistency.
The fastball for Flaherty is not his greatest strength. It doesn’t have elite velocity or vertical movement, and its great attack angle is squandered by the fact that he doesn’t throw it up in the zone enough. With Flaherty, we’re here for the breaking stuff. He has his slow, looping curveball that is now his second-most-used pitch and the slider that fueled his early 2024 bounceback. These pitches have seen slight drops in their PLV rates, but overall, it’s fair to say that it’s marginal enough to ignore. Flaherty also has a wonky changeup that he will bring out once in a blue moon, though PLV does not grade this pitch out well (which is pretty common with rarely thrown changeups).
I think it’s fair to say that Flaherty is a bit of a risky pitcher to roster, though he is one you should hold onto. The situation in Detroit is great for him and those breakers have showcased the ability to be sublime at times.
Bailey Ober – 3.54 PLA
We all love Bailey Ober around here, as he’s an extension monster who, for years, has been able to make the most out of his fastball by throwing it high in the zone. Similarly to some of the other pitchers talked about here, if you look at the ERA, it doesn’t look too bad. However, when you see the inflation in WHIP and the drop in strikeouts, you can see some cause for concern.
With that said, Ober’s PLA of 3.54 should make you a bit more comfortable with him moving forward. The results haven’t been there, even on a pitch-by-pitch basis, but PLV actually shows a similar pitcher to last year, with some improvements in certain areas. His fastball has graded out better and his changeup has a similar grade to what it was last year. This is encouraging, as the changeup has seen a bit of a drop in whiffs in 2025, but if it sees similar execution, perhaps we could expect that to jump up, especially against lineups with poor discipline. His slider has also improved in the PLV department, and that can be seen with an increase in whiffs. Ober also has a curveball that he uses a bit more this year. It’s slow and loopy but it’s gotten the job done, getting strikes at a high rate, and PLV reflects this, as the pitch grades out well.
Ober is a pitcher who hasn’t been as untouchable this year as at points in the past, but he’s still looked solid. With PLA showing that he’s an above-average arm, it shouldn’t be too long until he racks up the strikeouts for your teams.
Roki Sasaki – 5.83 PLA
Okay, so these last two players are on the injured list, but I wanted to include them because in so many ways, they’re on the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Roki Sasaki has been one of the most hyped pitching prospects for quite some time. He was a menace over in NPB and he had a drawn-out free agency period that made him the talk of baseball, at least after Juan Soto signed. There was a time where he was viewed as being better than Paul Skenes, and with him going to the Dodgers, many eyes have been on him.
Unfortunately, the results haven’t been there. Now, how much of this could be due to soreness/injury we don’t know about, but there are serious flaws with his arsenal that have many thinking he needs some time in the minors. His fastball, which was advertised as an absolute fireball, is down to 96mph with poor vertical movement and a steep attack angle. His splitter has potential, but he can’t locate it, and the slider looks disastrous.
The unfortunate reality is that Sasaki has the worst PLA of any starter with over 500 pitches thrown. Yes, worse than Charlie Morton. I really like Sasaki and have faith he will figure it out, but he isn’t worth stashing for now.
Aaron Nola– 3.58 PLA
So, Aaron Nola is also on the IL with an ankle injury. It looked like he’d be ready to return soon, but he has been pushed a little bit due to continued discomfort. Still, with PLA by my side, I want to convince you all that Nola is worth your consideration.
Nola struggled so far this year before getting hurt. That ERA is BRUTAL, and you can see that it comes from several blowup starts, including his most recent one against the Cardinals, where he was tagged for nine runs. He’s always been a guy susceptible to giving up a lot of hits, but it’s been really bad this year as he has averaged almost 11 hits per 9. Still, the ERA estimators show that his ERA is likely way overinflated and probably will come down.
Also, unlike some of the other disappointing players (and the cherry bombs we covered last week), there really isn’t a bad pitch for Nola per PLV. Even his weakest offering, the sinker, isn’t a sub-5 PLV pitch. His curve is still one of the better hooks in baseball and his fastball, despite not having the best stuff (outside of a flat attack angle) is still an above-average pitch for him.
While many have dropped him, consider putting your faith in Nola upon his return. It can’t be this bad for the whole season, not with the arsenal and command that he has.
