It is officially small sample size season for the 2024 draftees. For the draftees that have actually taken the field, the majority of them have not played more than 10-15 games, so there is really nothing to analyze from the results. With that in mind, we are going to analyze some of the results we have seen from the 2024 class! We are going to keep this in a positive light and look at some of the players that have performed well since their debut in professional baseball. Let’s get into some overreactions!
2024 MLB Draft Positive Overreactions
Carson Benge is a Future All-Star
For anyone who has read any of my previous draft content, will know I was very high on the selection of Carson Benge by the Mets at 19th overall. The main reason is that he showcased impressive numbers in the 3 most important components to me in evaluating a hitter, avg exit velocity, chase %, and contact %. He posted similar numbers in all 3 of those data points as Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon, who were both in the running to go 1st overall. So far in pro ball, Benge has been one of the most productive 1st rounders that has made their debut.
In 11 games in A ball, he is hitting .293/.431/.463 showcasing both the impressive swing decisions he showed in college, as well as power production. What has been even more impressive, is the fact that he is showing consistent loud exit velocity numbers with wood.
Carson Benge may not pop 112 mph EVs like some of the top bats in the class, but he finds the barrel consistently and generates carry. Last 10 PA:
97 mph HR (just kept carrying)
96 mph 1B
95 mph groundout
Walk
103 mph 2B
85 mph groundout
105 mph groundout
100 mph 1B
97 mph HR pic.twitter.com/IP9grWDyz8— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) August 29, 2024
Benge may never be a guy who hits the ball as hard as the Caglianone or Condons of the world (his max EV this spring was a 112.4 mph home run), but he has a knack for consistently finding the barrel. This season at Oklahoma State he had a 29.7% barrel rate, showcasing impressive consistency hitting the ball hard in the air.
Benge is a prototypical data darling coming out of college, and so far it seems the Mets nailed this pick. He has been one of the only college bats showcasing consistent production so far, and he still has more development to do. If he continues to produce, Benge will move fast through the Mets system and will be in the conversation as a top-50 prospect in the sport.
The Orioles are Far and Away the Best at Offensive Development
This honestly might not be an overreaction. Since Mike Elias and co. have taken over the Orioles, there has not been an organization in their stratosphere when it comes to offensive talent identification and development. They have not made many, if any, bad draft picks, and have been a revolving door of offensive talent. This class seems to be no different.
Vance Honeycutt was the big-name drafted by the Orioles, but he has struggled in pro ball. Honeycutt is going to be a project for the offseason, so I am not reading much into those struggles at all. Where the Orioles seemed to nail this draft is in their selections of Ethan Anderson, Austin Overn, and Ryan Stafford in the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounds. Each of them has been very good in their MiLB debuts.
Let’s start with Anderson. So far in pro ball, he has hit .276/.358/.466 with 6 extra-base hits. This is coming off a college season in which he hit .331/.435/.508 with 20 doubles, but only with 8 home runs. That was an impressive season, but a step back from his 2023 season where he hit .375/.469/.649 with 26 doubles and 15 home runs. The Orioles obviously believed Anderson was capable of more power, closer to his 2023 output, and the data seems to say so as well. On the 2024 season at Virginia, Anderson averaged 90.6 mph avg exit velocity with a 46.3% rate above 95 mph. Combine that with an 84.3% contact rate and a 22.4% chase rate, and the tools to be a productive hitter are there. If the power trends upward, that is a potential middle-of-the-order bat.
Austin Overn was the Orioles 3rd round selection, and so far he has been solid in pro ball with a .281/.411/.439 slash line with 13 stolen bases in 16 games. The scouting reports on Overn are plus hit tool with impressive speed, but lacking power. The Orioles seemingly value contact abilities, as at USC Overn had an 81.3% contact rate. The reason Orioles seem to value contact rates is their belief that they can develop power, which they have shown the ability to do in the past. Overn’s hit tool and speed combo have the potential to have an impact at the MLB level alone, but if he can add power to his profile, he can be a dynamic offensive talent.
Stafford fits a similar mould to Overn as a bat-to-ball-focused hitter with plus speed. He has been very good in 16 professional games, hitting .321/.433/.377 with 10 stolen bases. The combination of hit tool with speed is very valuable, and imagining this profile developing power would be really impressive. At Cal Poly this spring, Stafford had an 80.1% contact rate, so there is a common theme between all these hitters. The Orioles want hit over power players, and they believe they can develop power. Each of Anderson, Overn, and Stafford have had impressive starts to their pro careers, and have some development they could use. If any of them become a power threat, they will skyrocket up prospect rankings. The Orioles continue to find value in all the rounds of the draft.
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer will win a Batting Title
All Joshua Kuroda-Grauer does is hit. Coming off a Spring season at Rutgers in which he hit .428 on the season, he has translated that success directly to pro ball. In 12 games at Stockton, he hit .389 with 21 hits in 12 games. He was promoted to High-A Lansing, where he has struggled and lowered his average to .321 in 19 professional games.
Kuroda-Grauer has the traits to be a very solid contact hitter in professional baseball. As should be no surprise, he had an unbelievable contact rate this spring with an 88.8% contact rate on the season. In 53 games, he only struck out 18 times, walking more than he struck out. Those impressive contact skills have continued into his time with the A’s with only 6 strikeouts in 19 MiLB games. The question is not whether Kuroda-Grauer will make enough contact, but if he will hit it hard enough.
This spring at Rutgers, he averaged 87.2 mph exit velocity. Solid, but not impressive by any standard. For comparison sake, Oakland Athletics 1st round pick, Jacob Wilson, averaged 83.7 mph exit velocity in 2023. Wilson combined that light hitting with a 94% contact rate, but if Wilson has had the success he has had in pro ball swinging a pool noodle, why can’t Kuroda-Grauer? He may not hit for power, but the tools are there to be a solid hitter at the MLB level.
Konner Eaton will be a High Leverage MLB Reliever
Stuff has never been the issue of Konnor Eaton. Coming out of George Mason this spring he had 82 strikeouts in 62 Innings pitched. He has flashed a mid to upper 90s fastball from the left side while flashing both a plus slider and changeup. This Spring the Slider generated a 35.4% whiff rate with a 25.7% chase rate, while the changeup generated a 32% whiff rate and a 23% chase rate. Both above-average swing and miss metrics for offspeed pitches. Combine that with a mid-90s fastball with life at the top of the zone, and there are 3 solid to above-average offerings. You can check out the stuff here.
Rather bullish on the ceiling for George Mason LHP Konner Eaton. An explosive, athletic mover. Fastball has life up in the zone and some arm-side action late. Up to 97. Huge depth on the slider, up to 85, elite performance metrics. Will flash a solid CH. Needs to improve strikes. pic.twitter.com/wHIIp7Mm3U
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) January 23, 2024
The stuff is obviously there to be a high-leverage reliever, but will he throw enough strikes is the bigger question. During his college career, he walked 59 batters in 105.1 Innings Pitched. Not the worst numbers, but not spectacular either. There is definitely room for growth as he continues to advance in MiLB.
The Rockies decided they believed enough in Eaton’s stuff to take him in the 6th round, even though he had underwhelming college statistics. The 2024 season was his best season, where he pitched to a 5.66 era. We know the balls are juiced in college, but you would assume the Rockies would want to see more production. So far in pro ball, the Rockies have seemingly nailed this pick. In 8 IP, he has struck out 10 hitters while only walking 1. If he is able to consistently find the strike zone, he has the potential to have 3 above-average offerings to attack hitters. He is seemingly better equipped to handle shorter stints, so it will be fascinating to see if he can continue his dominant ways out of the bullpen. If he throws strikes, he will be able to pitch at the MLB level.
Carson DeMartini is the next Kyle Schwarber
Carson DeMartini put up impressive numbers as a 3-year starter at Virginia Tech. In his career, he hit .311/.435/.642 with 46 home runs and 39 doubles. He had some 1st round buzz coming into the spring, but his hit tool took a step in the wrong direction. That was at the expense of added power, as he broke a career-high in home runs with 21. On top of his average taking a step backwards, he also struck out 71 times in 54 games.
The main question surrounding DeMartini is the contact abilities. This spring at VT, he had a 64% contact rate, which is a below-average rate. With that came an above-average chase rate at 20.1%, and a solid average exit velocity at 90.5 mph. When he made contact, it was hit hard and in the air. 60.5% of the balls he hit were above 95 mph, and he sported a 33.6% barrel rate. Both of those data points show why above 50% of the hits he had this spring went for extra bases. It was DeMartini’s most productive power season, but it seemingly came at the expense of his overall hit tool. So far in Pro Ball, DeMartini looks a lot more like the 2023 version of himself than the 2024 version.
In 20 professional games, DeMartini is hitting .295/.364/.462 with 8 extra-base hits including 2 home runs. He has only struck out 12 times while showing solid swing decisions with 7 walks as well. That is a lot closer to what many evaluators were expecting to get in his last season at Virginia Tech. DeMartini’s calling card is never going to be his contact abilities, but he has the tools to be a middle-of-the-order threat due to his good swing decisions, and his power. If he can continue to showcase those skills, he has the potential to be a valuable MLB starter.
Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)