With the division series in full force, featuring many close and exciting games, it is easy to lose track of the teams who are already making vacation plans. However, in the context of the whole baseball environment, it is always interesting to see how each departed squad will cope with the frustration of losing and try to run it back for next year.
Before the whole offseason cycle, hot stove season, and tough roster decisions, let’s take a look at where the four teams that lost in the wild-card round stand as of this day. Some of them may only need better luck towards a more successful 2025, while others may have already entered a downward slope in their contention window.
The Brewers probably suffered the most traumatic exit from the first round, as they were only three outs away, at home, and with their star closer on the mound before collapsing in unlikely fashion. While the players and the franchise will probably dwell on this defeat and think of the missed opportunity, it is also true that 2024 was a massive success for this team and portends a bright future ahead.
We’re more heartbroken than we can describe but just wanted to say thank you, Wisconsin. We love you 💙 pic.twitter.com/WDTpJ38h8X
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 4, 2024
Willy Adames is the lone prominent free agent in this roster, and while it all points to him signing a big contract elsewhere, Milwaukee appears to have enough internal reinforcements to make up for this loss. Adames’ penchant for three-run homers and leadership will certainly be missed, but giving an extended look to Brice Turang at shortstop may be the next logical step for a franchise that continues to skew younger. Year two of Jackson Chourio should be plenty of fun, along with the continued development of other twenty-somethings like Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz.
The biggest X-factor towards 2025 will come down to health and availability, as Brandon Woodruff is expected to come back after a lost season and Christian Yelich will get another chance to play a full season. Yelich in particular has been quite productive when healthy, but that remains a major if. Also, having a full season of closer Devin Williams adds a new dimension for the bullpen, provided that he can bounce back from such a tough ending to 2024.
Nevertheless, playing in a division where they are clearly the best team should provide plenty of cushion for the Brewers, as they can basically run it back and only add around the edges. Between some expected regression from the young cavalry but accounting for the veterans bouncing back, it is hard to see how this team wouldn’t cruise to 90+ wins and another NL Central crown.
After a second straight disappointing early playoff exit, the Orioles may have proven that there is a limit regarding their current roster-building model. While developing from within and being frugal is always a commendable strategy, baseball is an unforgiving environment for rosters that have little margin of error, and that has been evident in consecutive Octobers. Despite combining nearly for 200 wins over two seasons on a low-tier payroll, Baltimore has been exposed at the worst time, scoring only one run over two crushing home losses that ended their season.
To Birdland 🧡 pic.twitter.com/GHItfplOE5
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) October 7, 2024
A new-ish ownership group will now get its first true test, and their willingness to invest in this solid-but-flawed roster will speak volumes about their intentions. While the Orioles have almost a dozen pending free agents and players with an option, there are two clear cornerstones that will garner most of the attention. Corbin Burnes delivered as a major trade acquisition in his walk year, leading the staff in all major statistical categories and finally giving the Orioles a true ace. Anthony Santander became the team’s prominent power hitter and should expect a nice payday in free agency, which is outside how the Orioles have operated in the past 20 years.
At the same time, the franchise’s riches regarding young players should still provide plenty of options that do not require major financial commitments. Year one of Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, both of whom are still under 23, did not go as planned, but they still project to be a huge part of the team’s future. Also, counting on an Adley Rutschman rebound sounds like a solid bet, while Grayson Rodriguez will enter a third season hoping for better health. As pitching is the clear priority for this roster, maybe trading from a surplus of hitters could be the way.
With a fan base getting restless and a division that will always be a major challenge to navigate, it could be time for the Orioles to shift course and finally dive into the free-agent pool. While a Burnes reunion would obviously be nice for continuity’s sake, there is also a case to be made for signing at least a couple of solid veterans who can solidify the staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen. Such a young core appears to give Baltimore a window of at least four to five years to contend, but it will all be for naught if the front office fails to seize on the chance.
Atlanta
After years of cruising to division titles, Atlanta ran into terrible injury luck and literally had to wait until the final day of the season to clinch a wild-card spot, only to then run into a playoff buzz saw. The team was not particularly competitive against San Diego, taking early deficits in both games they could not recover from. That disappointing sequence is now ominous considering that Atlanta will probably face their most difficult offseason in years.
While we may not have reached the heights we worked towards, we are incredibly proud of the perseverance and fight that the team displayed each and every day to get us to our seventh consecutive Postseason.
We fought all the way to the end.
To our fans — thank you for your… pic.twitter.com/u6yhzt9iVj
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 3, 2024
The return of Ronald Acuña Jr. is obviously the biggest development and expectation around the franchise, though it will be worth monitoring if he can be back at full force and with the same style of play. A similar thing will happen with Spencer Strider, who is expected back sometime in the middle of 2025. The latter’s extended absence has added a layer of uncertainty for a team that has branded itself as a pitching force in the past decade, especially as Chris Sale was not able to pitch in the playoffs and is always a health question mark. The possible retirement of Charlie Morton and Max Fried’s likely foray into free agency may give Atlanta only two-fifths of a rotation entering the hot stove season.
On the flip side, this front office has constantly found ways to remain relevant and competitive, and they still carry the benefit of the doubt going into 2025. The team’s multiple long-term contracts and arbitration cases may nix any chances of a Fried reunion, but expect Atlanta to complement their rotation with creative trades and at least a couple of mid-level signings. The late-season emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach and the late-career blooming of Reynaldo López are reminders that good staff can appear in many shapes and sizes. On the position-player side, Atlanta is not expected to suffer major losses, and instead hope for better injury luck.
In a division that includes two other teams that remain active in October, it is clear that every year in the foreseeable future will be a battle. Atlanta may still have the best all-around roster on paper, but there are plenty of intangibles they need to resolve going forward. If a worst-case-scenario season still led to 89 wins and a playoff berth, maybe there should be no reason to panic.
In another example of a perennial contender facing a tough year, the Astros navigated a tough start, injuries, and turmoil and still won another division title. While their early playoff exit was shocking to some, there should be no shame in losing to a team like the Tigers, who came into the postseason with all the momentum. However, the manner in which Houston lost (scoring three runs total and blowing a late lead in game 2) points out some of the challenges this team will face in 2025 and beyond.
Thank you, H-Town🤘 pic.twitter.com/8gzp38QmBe
— Houston Astros (@astros) October 2, 2024
The addition of Josh Hader as a high-priced closer was somewhat disappointing, as he altered the pecking order for a bullpen that had been stable for many seasons. While that bullpen is coming back nearly intact and will get a full offseason to coalesce, the same cannot be said for a rotation in flux. Justin Verlander was left off the postseason roster following a rough season, and he is now a free agent. Even as the future Hall of Famer has expressed his desire to keep pitching, it may not happen in Houston. On the other side of the coin, mid-season acquisition Yusei Kikuchi will also enter free agency, but his amazing performance in an Astros uniform is certain to earn him a nice contract.
Should the Astros pursue Kikuchi and/or other impact starters in free agency will determine much of how the offseason goes in Houston, even as most of the attention will be focused on another free agent, franchise legend Alex Bregman. The third baseman led off the season with a putrid performance but slowly got back to his career norms, ending the season with a solid 4.1 WAR. While Bregman will certainly seek a massive contract (he is a Scott Boras client, after all), the past few seasons suggest he is not that in that superstar stratosphere anymore.
While the Astros have re-signed other franchise cornerstones like Jose Altuve and Framber Valdez in the past, there is also precedent with the likes of George Springer and Carlos Correa, whom the team let walk as they got too expensive. The recent era of Astros success is unprecedented by the franchise’s standards, and so it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds in H-Town, as retaining Bregman may not be the best decision from a baseball perspective, but the human element and franchise image will also play a part.
With one year of control left for Devin Williams, do you see the Brewers trading him during the offseason and rolling with Megill in 2025?