Barring a truly memorable World Series, the most tense and nail-biting series of the 2024 playoffs will belong to the Guardians and Yankees in the ALCS. Despite arriving to Cleveland with an 0-2 deficit, the Guardians gave the Bombers everything they had, ultimately falling in just five games but with all three final games decided in the last at-bat after multiple late ties and lead changes. The feeling of what if will certainly dwell in the minds of many Cleveland fans and players, as the script could have been different with a few lucky breaks. Alas, New York’s firepower was too much for a team that may have shown its limited ceiling when it comes to the capricious and short-term nature of the playoffs.
After carrying the team through most of the season, Cleveland’s bullpen turned into a pumpkin at the worst possible time, highlighted by closer Emmanuel Clase’s sudden transformation into Byung-hyun Kim circa 2001 playoffs. Regardless of the disappointing final result, this has to be considered a successful season for the franchise, especially after they had not sniffed a pennant since their iconic run to AL supremacy in 2016. The arrival of Stephen Vogt as manager along with an infusion of young talent were enough to propel the Guardians to becoming one of the most steady and reliable teams of 2024—the challenge now is how to make it sustainable.
In a season where most top contenders faced at least a minor hiccup or the threat of a crisis, the Guardians flew under the radar because of their remarkable consistency. Despite losing ace Shane Bieber for the season after only two starts, Cleveland took control of the AL Central in early April and never let go despite fierce competition from the Twins and Royals, and even the Tigers by the end of the year. Outside of a strange seven-game losing streak in early August, the team never lost more than three in a row, and while the rest of the Central may have benefited from facing the White Sox 13 times, Cleveland went a mere 8-5 against them. With 92 wins and the AL’s second seed, Cleveland was a legit contender, but the way they got there poses a number of challenges going forward.
For starters, Cleveland’s rotation was made mostly of hopes and dreams after Bieber went down, forcing Vogt to rely on his historically good bullpen a little bit too much. The Guardians relief corps led the league by a wide margin in several categories, including ERA (2.57), WHIP (1.05), and holds (122), while also posting elite strikeout totals and having Clase as a legitimate Cy Young contender. At the same time, they were also among the top ten bullpens in terms of innings pitched, with their four top relievers each topping 65 innings with a sub-2.00 ERA. This aggressive usage was effective in the regular season but may have been too much for a tired squad as the pressure mounted in October.
The good news for Cleveland is that Clase and the likes of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin are all young and affordable, but bullpens tend to be volatile from year to year, and it would be hard to project a similar year of dominance. Despite solid years from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, the Guardians still combined to post a mediocre 4.40 ERA and rank 24th in total innings pitched. This trend re-emerged in the playoffs, where a patchwork rotation was barely enough to beat the Tigers but could not match up against a better offense in the Yankees.
Cleveland addressed this weakness with the mid-season additions of veterans Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd, but both are now free agents. The franchise’s self-imposed financial constraints suggest that they will not be major players when it comes to free agency, making it more likely that they will go for mid-tier acquisitions that can at least eat some innings. A Boyd reunion makes sense in that regard, especially as his time in Cleveland reinvigorated his career (2.72 ERA over eight starts) following several injury issues. With a Shane Bieber return happening sometime in mid-2025, the front office may be cautious about shoring up their rotation, which would be a shame considering the strides made by the offense in 2024.
Following years of subpar offensive production, the Guardians forged an identity of athleticism and enough pop to overcome low OBPs, leading to an above-average unit in terms of runs scored. Cleveland also finished fifth in stolen bases, making the most of their chances with runners in scoring position, batting almost 25 points higher as a team in that scenario. Much like the bullpen’s volatility from year to year, relying on these numbers is hard for any team, albeit with the disclaimer that at least Cleveland should count on sustained progress from its young core.
Outside of veteran catcher Austin Hedges, there are no impending free agents in a lineup full of twenty-somethings, which should bode well for the short-term future. José Ramírez’s excellence can almost be taken for granted at this point, but he has found enough lineup coverage with the likes of Steven Kwan and David Fry, while Josh Naylor broke out with a 31-homer season. Naylor’s situation may be a bellwether for how the front office chooses to operate this offseason, as he could be a prime trade candidate entering his final year of arbitration. In the past, Cleveland has been proactive to a fault in shipping out players at the height of their value, even if they are a fan favorite like the elder Naylor.
The emergence of Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel may justify such a trade, but with the Central being more competitive than ever, it would probably behoove Cleveland to keep as much firepower as possible. While hoping for better performances from young hitters is paramount, there is no guarantee that it will happen and that could prove devastating for such a top-heavy attack. Ramirez and Naylor combined to hit 70 of the team’s 185 homers, with both of them appearing in at least 152 contests. Relying on a superstar and a strong sidekick is a sound strategy, but limited to the whims of an inopportune injury or cold streak, which is why Cleveland should target all the depth it can get as their young hitters go through growing pains.
With the rotation and bullpen being prioritized, the offense may probably benefit from a veteran bat that can provide leadership and occasional pop, which should be enough to give it another go in 2025. Cleveland will start the season as the clear favorite in the Central, but their ultimate and realistic goal should be to again compete for bigger and better things. With a manager who had a strong rookie season and a deep roster that requires some tweaking, ownership and the front office will play a big part in raising the ceiling, especially now that the AL as a whole seems less imposing than a couple of years ago. With the team’s championship drought turning 77 next season, the urgency is always there in Cleveland, and they must take advantage of this window of contention. If not, at least they can always look back at the moment when Big Christmas made them go crazy and hopeful.