Dynasty pitching debates bring the difficult aspect of arm injuries front and center. But predicting future injuries is impossible so this article will mostly make determinations based on skill. Skenes and Skubal are in a class of their own. No one will be ranked above those two guys. But there are plenty of intriguing dynasty arguments for pitchers. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Spencer Strider are in that second tier of pitchers that would win any matchup against a prospect or unproven younger pitcher. Older pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, and Gerrit Cole are ideal if your team is competing, but in a rebuild, they are players who would be passed for top-pitching prospects. Below are some matchups that are tougher calls given current age and skill level.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Grayson Rodriguez:
A battle of the unproven and injured, Yamamoto is coming off his first MLB season and Grayson is a former top prospect arm. The stuff from each of these pitchers is above average to elite with a slight edge to Yamamoto. Grayson has yet to put it all together, while also fighting injury. Yamamoto was paid to lead the Dodgers rotation, and when healthy he did just that. Grayson improved mightily in his second season with more strikeouts and a lower ERA. The age gap between these two pitchers isn’t large as Grayson is 25 and Yamamoto is 26.5. The contract and debut of Yamamoto puts him in a higher pedigree than Grayson, but I’m not sure it’s by much. If Grayson Rodriguez can stay healthy in 2025, and reach the potential he had as a top prospect, this matchup could be a toss-up. Currently, Yamamoto may have a slight advantage. It’s hard to give Yamamoto the advantage just 90 innings into his MLB career, but the stuff is more advanced at the moment.
Rodriguez still has the potential to become an ace. Injuries aside, he needs to be more consistent. There have been some dominant starts with high strikeout totals, and a few blow-up starts. Twenty of his 50 earned runs in 2024 came in three starts, and in those starts, he still managed 22 strikeouts. If Rodriguez turns those blow-up starts into average starts, he’s looking at a sub 3 ERA. Year 3 is going to tell us if Rodriguez will continue to improve towards an ace, or if he’s a 2/3 starter. So much unknown with both pitchers, Yamamoto has the short-term win here for 2025. Until Grayson can limit the damage, he’s slightly behind Yamamoto. In a year and a half when Grayson is the age Yamamoto is now, I think we’ll see an ace in Baltimore.
Spencer Schwellenbach vs Brandon Sproat:
One of the best rookie pitchers in 2024 vs one of the quickest-rising prospect arms in 2024. Schwellenbach was a two-way player and a good athlete who was always going to move quickly. Not only did he move quickly, he excelled at every level. Sproat had the stuff coming out of Florida, but needed to refine the control. The control improved slightly, and in tandem so did the overall numbers. Prior to the 2024 season, I was a huge fan of Schwellenbach and Sproat. As the season wore on, I stayed invested in Schwellenbach but felt Sproat was rising too high on top 100 lists.
Schwellenbach is five months older than Sproat, with a stellar rookie season under his belt. The former college shortstop, Schwellenbach pitched to a 3.35 ERA with 127 strikeouts in 123.2 innings as a rookie. Sproat dominated until he reached Triple-A where he ran into command and long-ball issues. Both of these pitchers have good stuff and if Sproat can keep the walks down, they might be the same pitcher. Schwellenbach and Sproat both gave up 14 home runs in nearly the same amount of 2024 innings. Off to a rough start, Schwellenbach found his stride in July. From July 6th to the end of the season, he lowered his from ERA 5.68 to 3.35. Back-to-back starts of seven innings, with 11 and 10 strikeouts put Schwellenbach on the map. The athleticism stands out in the delivery for Schwellenbach. Both pitchers have the chance to be SP2/Sp3 for their teams. Sproat may have more strikeout potential, but Schwellenbach will most likely hold the lower ERA. This is a close one, but Schwellenbach gets the win as he did it at the MLB level in 2024.
Two highly electric left-handed pitchers, both can rack up the strikeouts. With the elite strikeout rate also comes some control issues. Snell managed to pitch around his high walk rate, and Mathews did the same until Triple-A. This is the first matchup with a significant age difference, Snell at 31 and Mathews at 24. Snell has two Cy Young awards and is the newest member of the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Mathews made his professional debut in 2024 and reached Triple-A. Dominant overall numbers, like Sproat, Mathews struggled when he reached Triple-A. Still, he tallied a whopping 202 strikeouts in 143.1 innings.
Snell is coming off another stellar year despite a high walk rate. It seems Snell has figured out how to pitch successfully while still walking a ton of batters. Mathews is a very similar pitcher to Snell with the high strikeout/walk totals. There’s a good possibility Mathews is Blake Snell outside of his Cy Young years. Also like Sproat, I think Mathews may have jumped a little high in the top 100 lists. If you’re a rebuilding team, Mathews is the clear pick here versus competing with Snell. Taking that out of the equation, Mathews might still have the win. 202 strikeouts in a MiLB season is nothing to gloss over. The walks are a concern but Mathews will most likely break camp with the Cardinals if they ship out some pitching this off-season. 2025 will have some growing pains with rough starts, but a high 3 ERA with 185+ strikeouts a year is the profile for Mathews. For 2025 it’s Snell, but long-term Mathews wins this matchup as he might produce the same numbers.
A battle of the pitching prospects coming off Tommy John, Pérez has excelled at the MLB level already. Painter is working his way back and pitched in the 2024 AFL. Pérez is my all-time favorite pitching prospect, so I’m picking him. The obvious here is that Eury already threw 91.1 MLB innings, while Painter barely reached Double-A. Not to mention that Pérez is 5 days younger than Painter. Not as impressive as the rookie season of Paul Skenes, but Eury Pérez took the MLB by storm. The electric arm is filled with strikeouts and through his first 9 starts had a 1.34 ERA. A blow-up start against the Braves where he went 0.1 innings and gave up 6 earned runs tanked his ERA. Taking that start out, Eury had a 2.60 ERA and is closer to the Skenes numbers.
Andrew Painter came back and threw well in the 2024 AFL hitting 100 MPH. The Phillies should be aggressive with a promotion in 2025 but not with the inning count. Painter could see 110-125 MLB innings in 2025. With Pérez most likely around the same number, it comes down to stuff and experience. There is a lot to be excited about with Painter but Eury has shown he can do it. Both are monsters on the mound, Eury at 6’8 and Painter at 6’7. The extension and velocity make both pitchers potential aces in the NL East. As a dynasty owner, you can’t go wrong with either here and it’s personal preference but I lean Eury.
Jackson Jobe vs Bubba Chandler:
Arguably the two top pitching prospects heading into the 2025 season, both have plus stuff. Jobe gained a lot of hype after his shortened 2023 season where he walked just six batters in 64 innings. Bubba Chandler jumped into the top half of top 100 prospects lists during the 2024 season. Both pitching prospects are 22 years old and are MLB-ready. Jackson Jobe made a late-season debut and pitching in the playoffs for the Tigers. Bubba Chandler reached Triple-A and will look to slot into the Pirates rotation behind Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in 2025.
Jobe had a back injury that cost him most of the 2023 season and is something to monitor for a young starting pitcher. It was going to happen, but Jobe took a step back in terms of control from 2023 to 2024. Going from his six walk 2023 season to a 45-walk 91.2 inning season is a big decline. An athletic delivery, Jobe still manages to lose his command at times. Bubba Chandler was a Clemson football recruit so he has the athleticism off the bat here. Opposite to Jobe, Chandler improved his walk rate from 2023 to 2024. He walked 10 fewer batters in 8.2 more innings while pitching all of the season between Double and Triple-A. In a battle of pure stuff, Jobe has Chandler beat, but both have clear ace potential. Jobe making his MLB debut in 2024 has only increased the hype. Most top 100 lists have these guys ranked 10-20 prospects apart, but I think they’re nearly identical. Jobe is a slightly more risky prospect here, with the upside of both pitchers being #1 starters. I lean toward Chandler in this matchup just because I think the Jobe hype grew too high after a down 2024 season.