Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Rey Might Be Giant

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Reynaldo López (ATL) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.

Can we take a moment to appreciate Reynaldo López? The dude just demoralized the Orioles via 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches and on the back of a four-pitch mix, rooted in an elite four-seamer that had its way inside the zone. We’re talking 81% strikes with a 39% CSW and nine whiffs across nearly 50 heaters at 96/97 mph, with his curve and slider doing plenty of work underneath as well. H*ck, we even saw 14 changeups, too…though its 21% strike rate isn’t going to keep it around much longer. Maybe it helped batters stay honest on the heater? It’s absolutely possible.

All in all, ReyLó was electric, lowering his ERA to just 1.69 on the season across just under 70 frames. Absolutely magnificent. It’s tough to buy into this sticking, due to his four-seamer that held a sub 10% SwStr rate prior to this game and his slider that struggles to find the zone (even if it has a great SwStr rate!). But hot dang, this ride is going far longer than we all expected and now he’s at a peak. Please be a plateau.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:

 

Alec Marsh (KCR) vs NYY (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star for Marsh as he took down one of the hottest offenses in baseball. He struck out Judge three times, Soto once, and was able to mix all of his pitches effectively around the zone. What is he, a Toby with strikeout potential? Like a Holly? Maybe…? I don’t believe he’ll carry this command often and it could be the spotlight on the big stage that brought the best out of him. At the very least, the Athletics are next and that’s a worthy shot to take. Hopefully, this won’t be the Ides of Marsh.

Taj Bradley (TBR) vs CHC (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 104 pitches.

Ummmm, Bradley may have finally figured it out. The trick? Get rid of the cutter and go two-pitch. Isn’t that bad? Maybe? But when you have a splitter that can actually stay down and a four-seamer with a great shape that can return 70% strikes, you throw those two things on repeat. It’s kinda like how Luis Gil just needs to throw fastball strikes and have one of his changeup and slider work for strikes, too. As long as the splitter can be that for Taj, then we’re in the clear. That just sounds like you’re avoiding the fact that he’s a Cherry Bomb. I THINK YOU’RE AVOIDING THAT YOU’RE A CHERRY BOMB. You’re not my therapist. That’ll be $75. Do you take Venmo? But seriously, I haven’t seen this before from Bradley and I have to think someone got in his ear about it. It clearly worked so this has to be Plan A moving forward, right?

Justin Steele (CHC) @ TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.

Steele performed as he should against the Rays with both four-seamers and sliders doing what they were supposed to. It’s great to have you back in form.

Roddery Muñoz (MIA) @ NYM (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! He had a Win sealed up if not for a two-run shot in the ninth, but regardless, that’s great value from a guy highly available in your leagues. His cutter was ole reliable inside the zone as his heaters flirted the edges of the zone and the Mets obliged. It could happen again when he faces the Cardinals next, though it feels more Cherry Bomb than sturdy Toby right now. It’s tough to trust the command so quickly.

Casey Mize (DET) vs WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.

So the heater doesn’t have nearly the same iVB that got me hyped in the spring, but the slider showed up for so many strikes for the first time all year and that’s a cool thing. It’s not like his heater shape is bad now, too. It’s just not that foundation quite yet. 0/35 whiffs, but 11 called strikes as the slider managed to go for  77% strikes and it lived in the zone. I think I’m out on him against Atlanta next, but at least the slider is somewhat decent now?

Luis Severino (NYM) vs MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 103 pitches.

Ten baserunners with just two strikeouts ain’t the life you want, but then you look at this and say “yeah, but one ER in six!” Life isn’t just ERA, y’all. I disagree. The Jurassic Era, the Modern Era…Please stop. And move on from Sevy while you’re at it, too.

Patrick Corbin (WSN) @ DET (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.

The last year has certainly been cruel for Corbin, but at least he’s still able to have these bright spots. That’s nice.

Michael Lorenzen (TEX) @ LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.

Wow, there’s your prime example of “there’s always a chance”. Seriously, Lorenzen got away with one here, returning a ton of outs on highly hittable pitches. I’m not joking, all of his outs in play came on pitches in the y-mLoc region. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. Don’t get too enamored by this one.

Garrett Crochet (CHW) @ SEA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 13 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 102 pitches.

lol. Aces gonna ace with a Golden Goal as Crochet’s four-seamer devoured the Mariners. 16/71 whiffs with a 42% CSW. Nearly a 70% strike rate, too, as he hurled 97 mph fastballs incessantly, then landed 92 mph cutters for 40% CSW on the side. This was dumb. Fantasy aside, at least you get a real challenge against the Astros next week. That’ll be fun to watch.

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 103 pitches.

WHOA. Pfaadt’s command was UNREAL. Just look at this plot. Four-seamers elevated. Sinkers perfectly spotted down. Even his sweeper was dotted on the edge. The dude COOKED. And now he gets the Nats?! Yeah, sign me up for that. Hot dang I hope this command can be repeated.

Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs CHW (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.

Hancock was called upon for a start to give an extra day of rest to Castillo and despite the HAISTBMBWT?! and a clear Blame it on the Mariners, that’s some surprising value. It’s still just sinkers and changeups without a whole lot of excitement, though. Consider him a Toby at best when he gets more starts in the future – we expect Woo to start in this spot on the next turn.

Michael Grove (LAD) vs TEX (L) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 23 pitches.

Grove opened for the Fratty Pirate who returned 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks and I think we can move on here, yeah? This is Bobby Miller’s spot in the rotation and we likely won’t see Ryan Yarbrough in a bulk reliever/follower position again for a bit.

Nestor Cortes (NYY) @ KCR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.

Nestor allowed just one hit on his four-seamer (and not even over the plate!) and his sweeper went 11/14 strikes, but without the whiffs, you get just two strikeouts. He nearly got a Win, too, if not for those meddling Royals scoring two on the verge of their final out. There’s a challenge ahead against the Orioles and I understand taking it conservatively given how he’s not the most overwhelming arm out there, but I wouldn’t overthink it and keep him in your lineup,

Joe Ryan (MIN) vs OAK (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. The heater is what it is and it’s glorious. Why can’t we all be content with excellence like Ryan’s heater?

Tanner Houck (BOS) vs PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.

Hmmmmm. This was the Final Boss for Houck to earn the AGA tag and this doesn’t quite look like an ace, right? He got a Win! And one hit from a VPQS and under a strikeout per inning. Alright, dominate next time out and I’ll award it. Let’s call this a wash.

Cole Irvin (BAL) vs ATL (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.

Whoa, we’ll take eight strikeouts all day from Irvin. The rest? Not so much and I’m not sure we can buy into those Ks coming in like a terrible, agreeable texter. He gets the Yankees next and as we’re all not starting him there, I wouldn’t label him as a hold for the next 10 days.

Lance Lynn (STL) vs PIT (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.

Stop doing this to yourself. You’re taking two Ls instead of one each time.

Mitch Keller (PIT) @ STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.

Hmmmm. The command was a little bit worse this time around with far more pitches down the pipe than ideal, while he missed up a bit more often with secondaries. I don’t want to believe it’s the start of cracks in his armor, but it sure looks like cracks in the armor. Let’s give it one more outing.

Luis Medina (OAK) @ MIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 102 pitches.

Womp womp. Just a 53% strike rate on the four-seamer is all you need to know here. He’s a Cherry Bomb due to the pitch’s inconsistency, even if he was able to get sliders and changeups(?) over the plate. Wait, isn’t he a curveball/slider guy? Yeaaaaah, well his changeup was solid at a 40% CSW, but I’m not sure why he went away from the curveball. Just one thrown feels wrong given its excellent shape. Anyway, no fastball strikes, no Nick Pollack likes. DEMS THE RULES.

Griffin Canning (LAA) @ ARI (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.

Canning pitched well outside of a three-run shot in the first frame. In fact, y’all should be praising the fella for making this a solid outing despite the horrific start. Way to save the day for all of us, Canning. But the fastball! Yeah yeah yeah, 13/30 strikes on it + the pitch that let up the dang blast to the outcast. It’s not supposed to be heavily in the zone in the first place, and the changeup + slider + curve did their part. The Brewers are next and that’s a skip for Canning as he heads back to the wire…if he weren’t there already.

Aaron Nola (PHI) @ BOS (L) – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 90 pitches.

Oh dear. Nola got pummeled and many of these hits were on hung pitches that deserved punishment. Whatareyagonnado. Seriously, it’s a One Night Bland where his velocity was up and he didn’t have his best curveball feel. It stinks, but we move past the momentary emotion and start him again next week against the Padres.

 

Game of the Day

 

Cole Ragans vs. Gavin Stone – Ragans against the Dodgers lineup is going to be a ton of fun + Stone has been cruising.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)