It’s 8 pm in late March. There’s a breeze coming in through the screen door that clips you just enough to need a sweater. Your fantasy baseball draft just started. You ate dinner over the sink to quote “give yourself more time to research,” when in fact you could’ve eaten at a table like an adult with dignity. Your body is running on turkey, cheese, a tortilla, Taco Bell sauce that was next to the cheese in the cheese drawer, and Pamplemousse La Croix. I think it’s safe to say, you’re locked in.
You’re closing in on the 25th round, everything you ate over the sink is sitting in your stomach like rocks at the bottom of a fish tank. You have your studs and feel confident, but what direction to go now?
I can help out. In fact, I’d be happy to help. Here are 10 names to zero in on after pick 300.
Henry Davis
2023 stats (255 PA): .213 AVG | .302 OBP | .351 SLG | 27 R | 24 RBI | 7 HR | 3 SB
As I write this, Henry Davis is getting some serious Spring Training helium and is now going as high as 142 in some leagues! I’m going to stick with him here because his NFBC average is still seeing his ADP sitting around 297.22, but that average is climbing fast. This is a perfect example of why it’s important to have a few of these names rattling around in your brain before a draft; someone may like that post-300 guy way more than the consensus and take them in the 200-300 range.
A former first-overall pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Henry Davis had an atrocious start to his young career. The hidden nugget in that already gross stat line above is he produced a -1.4 bWAR for 2023, which as I’m writing is causing me to make a face. But, young players struggle in their first taste of the majors all of the time and we shouldn’t completely count him out.
It’s a classic offseason tale. Davis showed off some content at Driveline in hopes of producing more exit velocity to his swing. He started spring decently hot, which got many, including me, intrigued. And then he hit this home run. I believe it was this home run that bumped Davis above the 300 ADP mark cause how could it not? Does anyone else see Dan Uggla in that swing? Different follow-through but the same short power stroke.
The opportunity to get Davis past 300 may already be gone, that’s how fast these things can work. I do think he will be there in the 250 range which makes him an easy pickup late in drafts.
Jose Siri
2023 stats (364 PA): .222 AVG | .267 OBP | .494 SLG | 58 R | 56 RBI | 25 HR | 12 SB
Jose Siri was a late-round target for me last year and nothing has changed. Siri is going to give you big power and good enough speed to help justify this pick.
With Siri heading into 2024, I could actually see the power and speed production going up even more. Siri was hurt last year and this limited him to only 364 PAs while only playing in 101 games. 25 home runs in 101 games? That’ll work. Expect the steals to go up as well if he is able to stay on the field.
Siri is not a sexy late-round pick but he is a useful one if you need power and speed. He will kill you in AVG/OBP but expect decent runs, speed, and power.
Wilyer Abreu
2023 stats (85 PA): .316 AVG | .388 OBP | .474 SLG | 10 R | 14 RBI | 2 HR | 3 SB
Oh, you took Jose Siri? And now you need a high OBP guy to pair him with? And outfield is a bit shallow so you waited till now? Man, we should talk more.
This is who you pair Siri with or if you need an OBP boost. The Red Sox have been so strange lately and they have not been helped by injuries. But with all the craziness that has been happening, their outfield is a bright spot. Wilyer came over to Boston via trade with Houston for Christian Vázquez. Being left-handed and hitting in Fenway isn’t ideal, but in his short sample in the bigs, he looked to hold his own.
He may be fighting for a roster spot but Abreu is a perfect bench bat with upside that could present itself as the season continues. And at an ADP of 483 according to NFBC, you have nothing to lose.
Brenton Doyle
2023 stats (399 PA): .203 AVG | .250 OBP | .343 SLG | 48 R | 48 RBI | 10 HR | 22 SB
Brenton Doyle is an absolute liability at the plate, or at least he was last year posting the hottest OPS+ of 52 ever.
52.
Think about that. That is so incredibly bad. So why is he here?
Doyle is going to play every day for the Rockies because he is the best centerfielder the boys in purple have possibly ever had. What a sad franchise I root for. But he truly is exciting on defense and that’s why I was on Siri ahead of 2023.
Teams cannot sit elite defensively centerfielder. Jackie Bradley Jr. had a career way longer than he should’ve because his defense was insane. Doyle looks like he may fit in the Bradley Jr. mold, but this is the year to be a little optimistic.
Doyle has always had a strikeout problem in his professional career, but in the minors, he was at least able to patch solid seasons together; I don’t think it’s out of the question for him to do so in 2024.
Doyle’s ADP is 532 according to NFBC. That is comically low. He’s going to play every day, and he was able to steal 22 bases. If you’re a believer, take him with your last pick. He can easily be dropped quickly if he looks like an OPS+ of 52, or you can look like the smartest person in the room.
Lawrence Butler
2023 stats (123 PA): .211 AVG | .240 OBP | .342 SLG | 10 R | 10 RBI | 4 HR | 0 SB
I like Lawrence Butler for 2024, sue me. I even had him as my first sleeper on the A’s for 2024, sue me. And who did I compare Butler to for 2024? Jose Siri. It’s really all coming together in this run of players, sue me.
Butler did not get a long enough look in the majors last year, simple as that. We got glimpses of monster power and I think that shows through more in 2024.
I used a PLV stat in the sleepers article and I want to show the graph again.
Butler has power and we also didn’t see enough of him, both things can be true.
The A’s aren’t playing for much in 2024, but with the move to Vegas looming, they have to at least be moving to the shiny apple (new name for Vegas what do you think?) with a few decent players. Butler is beyond free at an ADP of 699.79, which is so very low. If you don’t draft him at least slam the star button on whatever fantasy app you’re using because it feels like he will put up meaningful power stats for 2024.
Will Benson
2023 stats (329 PA): .275 AVG | .365 OBP | .498 SLG | 51 R | 31 RBI | 11 HR | 19 SB
Will Benson should not be going this late, period. I wrote about some Spring Training battles and the Reds outfield was one of them, but it feels like he walks away with a starting gig.
Benson came over to Cincinnati from Cleveland in what had to be the most depressing “you’ve been traded” moment because he had to stay in Ohio. Once he made it to Cincinnati he fit right into their young, solid core of offensive players and hit his way to a starting gig.
I really don’t see a world where the Reds don’t start him in right field to begin 2024. Jake Fraley appears to be the odd man out in the situation, as he should be.
Benson has power and speed but his top tool is his on-base skills. He, like Abreu, is a great late-round addition to your team if OBP or AVG is scarce. He may be better in OBP leagues but he most likely won’t hurt your average.
J. P. Crawford
2023 stats (638 PA): .266 AVG | .380 OBP | .438 SLG | 94 R | 65 RBI | 19 HR | 2 SB
Alright, you caught me. J.P. Crawford is profiling to go a little before 300, much like Henry Davis. The thing is, he’s sitting around the 284 mark, so dependent on the draft, he could absolutely be a past 300 pick.
Crawford’s 2023 stats shown above are possibly the first of this list that don’t make you want to run head-first into a fence. He produced a great source of runs, OBP, and a sneaky source of power for 2023.
I don’t want to spend much time on Crawford cause he’s really started to establish himself as a more than solid shortstop for the Mariners, and has become a fan favorite up in the PNW. It’s weird he’s going this late, but I also get it. Last year was a bit of an outlier for him but it feels legit. He had a classic “went to Driveline” offseason before 2023 and it looks like it paid off.
Special shoutout to Ty France (ADP 360) for 2024 because Crawford convinced France to go to Driveline ahead of this season. I don’t think it’s crazy if we see a power jump from Ty.
Colt Keith
2023 stats AAA/AA (577 PA): .306 AVG | .380 OBP | .552 SLG | 88 R | 101 RBI | 27 HR | 3 SB
Let’s get into a few prospects as we close out this list. The first is the Tigers 2nd base prospect, Colt Keith.
Keith can hit, plain and simple. He can hit so well that the Tigers gave him an extension ahead of the 2024 season almost guaranteeing him a roster spot, unless he has a dreadful spring. This was a bit of a surprise because Keith has yet to play a major league game.
Thanks to Comerica Park, (it’s still called that, right?) the Tigers offense has struggled to produce offense. The park plays a factor, yes, but it’s also talent. Keith is possibly the Tigers’ most talented offensive prospect in years. His hit tool profiles to be special and he isn’t afraid to get his walks.
So why isn’t the hype through the roof on this guy? Keith is most likely going to play second base, but so far in his minor league career, he has been terrible defensively. His bat will hide his poor defensive play, but it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Oh, and his ADP is sitting at 368.64 so, just take him.
Parker Meadows
2023 stats (145 PA): .232 AVG | .331 OBP | .368 SLG | 19 R | 13 RBI | 27 HR | 3 SB
Another Tigers prospect, Parker Meadows, looks poised for a breakout season.
With only limited playing time, we saw a few promising moments from the young outfielder, enough to add him to this list.
The main thing that jumped off the page for me is he had a nice max EV of 108.5 and his expected stats gave him a boost.
He will most likely experience a few growing pains, as many players do, but there’s a lot to like in Meadows’s profile. A 20-20 outcome isn’t an insane thing to think of when seeing what he did in the majors last year and what his minor league track record has been.
His average ADP is sitting actually at 290 and prospect gurus are really buying into a 2024 breakout so snag him now before he does what Henry Davis did.
Zach Neto
2023 stats (329 PA): .225 AVG | .308 OBP | .377 SLG | 38 R | 34 RBI | 9 HR | 5 SB
Post-hype sleepers are truly the best. Last year around this time, everyone was clamoring to get Neto before the season started because it sounded like he was going to make the major league roster. Now that he’s entrenched as the Angel shortstop, no one really cares because he didn’t shine in his first sample size (draft Colton Cowser too for that matter).
Neto is most certainly going to be the Angels shortstop to start the year and he’s already having himself a nice spring, even though spring training stats mean NOTHING.
I’m not sure the power will ever get over 20 home runs but I could see the stolen base totals get past the 20 mark. The Angels have some tough times ahead of them and surely they are banking on Neto to provide some assistance for Trout.
We saw a few okay advanced stats from Neto in 2023 but nothing that really jumps off the page. Why I like him is because he grades out as a really solid defender at short and that will help get him more playing time. He’s a great option late if you need to fill an MI slot.