2017 Rankings: Top 25 First Basemen for Fantasy Baseball

I went over the Top 25 Catchers earlier this week and it’s time for some more rankings. The preseason prognosticating here at Pitcher List continues with a rundown of the...

I went over the Top 25 Catchers earlier this week and it's time for some more rankings. The preseason prognosticating here at Pitcher List continues with a rundown of the fellows who play first base you’ll want to keep at the forefront of your fantasy brain for their prowess at the plate.

Tier 1: Take Me Out To The Bank Vault

1a. Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs) — Every name mentioned in this tier has a fearsome fantasy outlook that will be worth its weight in a precious metal of your choosing, and Bryant kicks things off. A genuine superstar is just beginning to show us what he's capable of, and frankly, I think it would be rather a difficult task to argue that the reigning NL MVP doesn't belong near the pinnacle of your draft order. While Anthony Rizzo does tend to man first more often for the Cubbies, Bryant’s right beneath him on the depth chart and is eligible in Yahoo leagues. Bryant has monstrous upside and is a threat to score triple digits in RBI and runs all over again, all while probably accumulating an average in the .280s neighborhood. 40.3% hard contact in 2016 is simply obscene. Constructive critics will want him to boost his Z-contact percentage a bit, but it clearly hasn't limited him thus far. If Bryant falls past the No. 5 overall pick in your draft, multiple people in your league are drunk. You are to acquire him with a vicious quickness and prepare for an onslaught of offensive output from Bryant. He is the crisp $100 bill stack of 1B-eligible fantasy studs.

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Andrew Todd-Smith

Journalistically trained and I have written for SB Nation. Fantasy baseball & football nerd, and there's a solid chance I'll outresearch you. I live in Columbus, pull for Cleveland and could learn to despise your team if you give me reason to. Navy veteran and wordplay addict with an expat background.

13 responses to “2017 Rankings: Top 25 First Basemen for Fantasy Baseball”

  1. Biff Malibu says:

    I’d slot brad miller 13-15 range, what about your opinion??

    • Andrew Todd-Smith says:

      You are dead on. Also, great catch, those pesky 39 games at 1B for Tampa Bay eluded me. I have him in my SS rankings of course, tough to break from the 4-5-6 mold I have cast in my head from his Seattle days. Anyway, yes, I would place him right around where Carpenter is, somewhere between Hosmer and Pujols. I see him hitting for .250+, perhaps 24 HRs, 70 runs and 70 RBI with 7 stolen bases. Carp beats him in runs and BA handily, but the single-digit steals and homer advantages Miller should have over him make it tough to pick between them. I’m concerned with 22.6% soft contact from Miller, while Carpenter is really beyond reproach as a consistent power guy. Let’s say Miller at 15 and Posey at 16.

  2. Steven Dowdy says:

    Thames?

    • Andrew Todd-Smith says:

      Ahhh, good old Eric. Great question. So based on the lack of adjusted-to-MLB data on his recent time in Korea, as well as zero clue as to how Yahoo and ESPN would/will handle his fantasy eligibility beyond having just simply OF, he is sort of a strange case where it’s tough to classify and predictively analyze him beyond what folks like Steamer and ZiPS do. However, if we use their baselines, he should easily slot inside the top 10 (Tier 2). Deviation from their numbers is bound to happen so I’d say I like him for 29 HR, 71 runs, 83 RBI while hitting for .265ish. That places him right around even with Hanley Ramirez for me, after Encarnacion, with the potential to rise if he can steal bases significantly (10+). In the existing 7th-9th range here, I’d say.

  3. Chris says:

    Vogelbach? Seattle hitting prospects haven’t done well lately, but he has a window to playing time.

    • Andrew Todd-Smith says:

      Not on the radar enough yet to be fantasy relevant. He’s the starter for the moment but he’s unproven in the bigs and has exhibited recent stroke of power in AAA but there’s no telling how he’ll fare against MLB arms. I think they’re going to ease him in and not give him necessarily a grueling day-to-day workload while Danny Valencia can kind of pick up his learning curve slack. Put more eloquently, Valencia serves as the mortar between the bricks as the Ms try to build Vogelbach’s wall if that makes sense. The volume just will not be there yet for fantasy consideration, since so many more options out there are going to be producing at a higher rate. His talent will come through eventually, but it’s like Tom Murphy catching in Colorado: genuinely developing a clearly skilled guy and then spelling him as necessary with platoon utilization does fantasy owners no favors right this second.

    • Andrew Todd-Smith says:

      The fact that Vogelbach got optioned to AAA Tacoma confirms my suspicions and validates everything I was concerned about. I stand by my statements here, and it was honestly weird/cool to come back and see what I had recommended for you to see it become true. Hope your drafts(s) go well!

  4. Bateserade says:

    What are your thoughts on Yulieski Gurriel now that he’s been named the starter for 1B in Houston?

    • Andrew Todd-Smith says:

      This is a wonderful question, apologies for not seeing it & replying sooner. He won’t have 1B eligibility for fantasy purposes but if you can slot him at third and get somebody killer early in your draft to cover the 1B issue, he could be an excellent acquisition. The playing time is always a huge concern and solidification of a starting spot obviously assuages some of those uncertainties and fears. BUT he’s super new to the majors and that is a whole new set of concerns, i.e. how he may or may not become acclimated to a full season of top-tier play. He’s on our list of honorable mentions at 3B already before this anointment at 1st happened, and his projections could absolutely end up slotting him somewhere in the top 25 of this list when all is said and done. He’s a better hitter for average than he is a power producer for sure. It’s a matter of how much you trust his upside without a ton of résumé experience to bank your bet on. He could be a steal as long as you draft him according to the unknowns mentioned here. Don’t reach to get him and don’t necessarily build your plans around him, but he could be a hell of a pickup if you’re smart about it.

      • Bateserade says:

        Thanks for the in-depth answer Andrew.

        I picked him up for $8 in my $260 cap, AL only keeper league last year, and I’m trying to decide if I should roll with keeping him in my util spot going into the draft, or drop him to free up a spot to possibly get someone like Greg Bird for said utility spot. I have the keeper slot open, it’s just a matter if he will return value on the $8 price tag.

        It’s a 10 team 5×5 (OBP instead of avg.) league with 13 starting batting positions, 9 starting pitching positions (RP +SP) and 10 bench (minor league + major league players). It’s a fairly deep league, hence my hesitancy to drop him now that he’s been named a starter.

        I’m kind of leaning towards the possibility of getting Bird right now, but like what I saw from Gurriel at the tail end of last season. Plus Astros > Yankees this year.

        Any advice on the above subject?

        • Andrew Todd-Smith says:

          No problem whatsoever. To the points posed in your follow-up question, that is an incredibly deep league and I think your instincts to hang on to him after acquiring him at such competitive value are leading you in the right direction. Effectively, I see it as you already having gambled a bit on picking him up and that investment returned as a success already when he was named the 1B starter for Houston. Having said that, Bird would be an excellent target for you, given the OBP parameters of your league and he is projected to do better in that category than Yuli. If you can afford the roster room to have both, it would be wonderful news. I don’t think you need to view it as an either/or, provided the price tag on Bird is not exorbitant. He brings value, but don’t be spendthrift trying to reach for him. Does that help?

  5. FNK says:

    what about Mitch Moreland? full time 1B for RedSox coming off a gold glove in 2016?

    • Andrew Todd-Smith says:

      I like Moreland a little more each time I think about his individual skill set, but with him projected to be batting eighth in between an inconsistent Sandoval and a Sandy Leon I’m not currently super high on, I think we have to wait and see what he can do. If he is able to play in upwards of 130 games, the outlook changes. He figures to have comparable numbers to Ryan Zimmerman right now so he’s definitely on our radar but not a dynamite pickup yet. I like the power he could provide with solid hard contact numbers but I personally would need to be able to count on 20 HRs if he’s going to hit around .250 and not necessarily be a star runs/RBI-wise either. He’s a stash in LATE rounds for the time being with the chance to grow into a legit contributor if playing time is more than what it seems currently. That said, his value could be very high if you’re able to be patient with the roster spot. Watchlist and pounce in free agency might be necessary if you notice go undrafted.

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