Each and every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, reviewing the biggest risers and fallers of the past seven days.
As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article … but where’s the fun in that?
Bombers On Top
Record: 49-21
Rank change: +1 (2 to 1)
For the first time this season, our Pitcher List Power Rankings team believes the New York Yankees are the best team in baseball.
How could we not? They own the best record and run differential (+128), both by a substantial margin. They’re 9-2 in June and 30-9 since the beginning of May, pummeling teams in the process (+89 run differential, +2.3-run average margin).
Sure, they stumbled in that monster home series against the Dodgers, losing two of three. But the first game was an 11-inning, one-run affair, so it’s about as close to a split as you can get. The Yankees immediately bounced back, sweeping the Royals at Kaufmann Stadium by a combined score of 25-8.
There are two main reasons for the success.
First, the Bronx Bombers obliterate right-handed pitching. The Yankees have posted a 128 wRC+ against the side on the year, four points higher than second-place San Diego. They’ve posted a 134 mark over the past month, three points higher than second-place Baltimore.
Some quick notes on Aaron Judge, who everyone is talking about these days.
Judge’s 28% barrel rate is nine points higher than any other qualified hitter. He’s hit 40 barrels since May 1, averaging just over one per game. He’s slashed .394/.512/.955 for a 1.467 OPS during the stretch, bashing 19 home runs.
Judge has always cruised against same-side pitching, but he’s overwhelming right-handed pitching this year. He’s posted a 215 wRC+ against the side, with 20 of his 25 dingers coming off righties – granted he’s faced far fewer southpaws.
Speaking of southpaws, Juan Soto owns baseball’s second-highest barrel rate (19%), and he’s posted a 1.037 OPS against right-handed pitching, posting 14 home runs with more walks (39) than strikeouts (36) against the side.
The Yankees are a righty-heavy lineup, so it’s surprising that they’re so dominant against the right side. The other two lefties in the lineup – Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo – hit far better against right-handed pitching. But so do many of the Yankees’ depth and bench pieces.
The second reason for New York’s success is how the rotation has held up in Gerrit Cole’s absence. Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Rodón, and Cody Poteet have all performed admirably, and the Yankees have produced the 10th-most starting pitching fWAR in baseball (5.7).
Among the rotation pieces, I’m most impressed with Gil and Schmidt.
Gil utilizes a fairly simple three-pitch fastball-changeup-slider mix. His heater (126 Stuff+) and slider (110 Stuff+) grade out excellently by the advanced pitching models, and he’s been missing an obscene number of bats with the mix (combined 32% whiff rate), propelling him to the eighth-best strikeout rate among qualified starters (31%). While his changeup doesn’t grade out well by the models (86 Stuff+), those models don’t know how to accurately quantify changeups. Instead, just look at the results, which are excellent (28% whiff, .136 BAA, 24% putaway).
Luis Gil registered a daily high 22 Whiffs in his dominant 14 K outing against Chicago yesterday
Here are all of them: pic.twitter.com/kSGGwQZ6hX
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 19, 2024
Schmidt has always had good stuff, but the addition of a cutter has revamped his efficiency. This is what the Yankees do: they teach guys how to throw a cutter, and hope it works.
The cut-fastball has quickly become Schmidt’s best and most reliable offering (33% whiff, .286 xwOBA against). Combine it with his deadly slider (134 Stuff+), and you get a two-and-a-half ERA guy.
But, as a lifelong Red Sox fan, I must poke some holes in the best team in baseball.
First, the Yankees are slightly vulnerable against left-handed pitching, posting a more mortal 108 wRC+ against the side. What a surprise for such a righty-heavy lineup, and something I can’t quite figure out.
Second, the Yankees bullpen is wildly overvalued.
The Yankees pair the third-best bullpen ERA (3.13) with the 21st-best bullpen xFIP (4.13) and 21st-best strikeout minus walk rate (12%). Several Bomber relievers are vastly overperforming, including the closer (Clay Holmes) and set-up man (Luke Weaver).
Still, the Judge-Soto-Gil-Schmidt quartet looks unstoppable. The Yankees are World Series favorites as currently constructed. Imagine if they get Cole back.
Movin’ On Up
Record: 32-35
Rank change: +3 (24 to 21)
Three teams jumped up three spots in our power rankings this week: Tampa, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh.
I want to discuss the Pirates, mainly because of their young arms.
Paul Skenes is the most exciting – and talked about – young pitcher in baseball. His 100 mph fastball and deadly “splinker” are nearly unhittable pitches, hence why he’s posted a 35% strikeout rate through his first six Big League starts.
His slider is excellent (135 Stuff+) – albeit not dominant – and he’s mixing in more curveballs and changeups as he’s progressing.
But the more impressive part about Skenes’ breakout campaign is the command and control of his disgusting arsenal. Among starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched this season, Skenes ranks fourth in Location+ (108). His Stuff+ mark is relatively tame (112), but combine the two together, and you get MLB’s best arm by Pitching+ (112).
Skenes has walked only six batters across his first six starts (5.0%), and two came in his debut against the Cubs. He looked a tad shaky in that start, likely because of jitters, but has been placing every triple-digit fastball perfectly since.
Paul Skenes just threw three fuck you fastballs right by the best hitter in baseball
I might be all in pic.twitter.com/xrNQasMUd0
— Calico Joe (@CalicoJoeMLB) June 5, 2024
One of the more underrated aspects of location is weak contact ability. Hard-throwing pitchers will often produce hard-contact results, but Skenes avoids barrels as well as any pitcher (5.0% rate, 82nd percentile).
Who ranks second among that group in Pitching+? It’s Jared Jones (111), the second ascending ace in Pittsburgh.
Jones (129) trails only Nick Pivetta (138) in Stuff+. His fastball is a thing of beauty, coming in hot at an insane vertical approach angle with plenty of ride.
This Jared Jones 4-Seam Fastball against Bryan De La Cruz is graded as the nastiest pitch thrown this season according to tjStuff+
147 tjStuff+ pic.twitter.com/9S4nc66yk0
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 4, 2024
Jones (3.54 xERA) is not quite as effective as Skenes (2.54 xERA), and that’s mainly because he has less command over his arsenal (104 Location+). So, Jones has run into more hard-throwing, hard-contact issues (43% hard-hit rate, 23rd percentile; 10% barrel rate, 22nd percentile; 10 homers allowed in 74 innings).
Hard-throwing, hard-contact pitchers can look inconsistent – overwhelming opponents with stuff on one day but allowing three homers the next. Jones struck out 10 across seven shutout innings against the Rockies but allowed five earned on three barrels against the Tigers a month later.
Regardless, the Pirates have a pair of bonafide aces at the top of the order. Mitch Keller ain’t half bad, either. The Pirates are in last place in the NL Central, but they’re 6-4 in June, with Skenes, Jones, and Keller starting five of those games. They rank third among MLB rotations in fWAR (1.5) and second in strikeout rate (26%) this month.
Hittin’ the Skids
Record: 33-35
Rank change: -5 (14 to 19)
The Cubs posted a 103 wRC+ in April, scoring 135 runs across 27 games (five per) and winning 17 of them. They held a half-game lead in the NL Central on April 29.
They’ve been on a downhill trend since.
Once upon a time, the Cubs had the prettiest batted-ball profile in the Majors. But they haven’t been producing as much hard contact since, and they’ve been getting unlucky in recent weeks.
Still, Dansby Swanson hasn’t gotten off the ground (89 wRC+), and the Cubs have the second-worst offensive catching duo in MLB (41 wRC+, -1.2 fWAR) – Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya have been dreadful at the plate, slashing a combined .176/.226/.267 with 67 strikeouts to 11 walks.
The rotation is pretty good. Shota Imanaga is a Cy Young candidate (1.96 ERA), although he’s due for some regression (3.40 xFIP). Justin Steele has started to settle in after a tough three-start stretch in May (15 ER across 16 IP against the Pirates and Braves). Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon are overperforming but eating innings. Youngster Ben Brown has really impressed me (109 Stuff+), although he’s battling an injury.
But Kyle Hendricks’ arm is dead (9.07 ERA across 41 IP) and the bullpen is a mess (0.1 fWAR, 25th; 4.43 ERA, 24th; 4.08 xFIP, 18th). Hayden Wesneski and Héctor Neris have hamstrung the relief corps, with Chicago relievers walking 14% of batters across the past two weeks.
The Cubs are a weird team.
There’s plenty of talent in the lineup, and there are arms at the top of the rotation. They’re also an excellent defensive team (sixth in Defensive Runs Saved). But there are a plethora of holes, and I don’t think anybody in the Central – including the talented, surging Pirates – will catch the Brewers, who hold a seven-game lead over all four divisional opponents.
Week 11 Power Rankings