What’s up, everybody! Welcome back to the third and final part of my 2025 bold prediction series. Today, I give you one bold player prediction for each MLB team in both the AL and NL West.
The criteria remain the same–think of player predictions that are adventurous yet don’t necessarily have an unrealistic chance of occurring during the 2025 season. Again, if I get one correct per division, I’ll be pretty happy. Let’s dive right in!
American League West
Houston Astros: Cam Smith wins AL Rookie of the Year
Roman Anthony may be the #1 prospect in all of baseball, but Cam Smith is poised to bring home AL Rookie of the Year honors in my opinion. Smith, acquired in the Kyle Tucker blockbuster via Chicago this winter, is wildly underrated. He’s ranked the 58th overall prospect by MLB Pipeline despite consistently hitting the cover off the ball everywhere he plays.
| G (league) | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | XBH |
| 117 (College) | .331 | .420 | .594 | 1.014 | 64 |
| 32 (MiLB) | .313 | .396 | .609 | 1.004 | 16 |
| 11 (’25 ST) | .423 | .516 | .846 | 1.362 | 4 |
Last year’s 14th overall pick not only is producing in the box score but is also lighting up statcast with top-notch EVs.
The bat, while looking elite through limited sample sizes, isn’t the only factor in making the roster. Smith, a longtime corner infielder, has learned to play right field on the fly – a position that has been a major question mark heading into 2025 after Houston dealt away Tucker.
Will Kunkel of FOX Sports reported Monday morning that Smith has a “good chance” to make the Astros’ Opening Day roster.
Bottom line: The bat has been too good for too long not to be talked about. I think Smith has a legit chance to take this award home if he makes the Opening Day roster.
Texas Rangers: Jacob deGrom Makes 25+ Starts
deGrom is one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball when healthy. But that’s just it… he’s never healthy. Every year it’s his elbow (multiple Tommy John surgeries), shoulder, wrist, forearm, hamstring, something that derails another fantastic year.
Entering his age-36 season, deGrom wants to change things up. Per Jeff Passan’s latest, the ace plans to take some velo off of his arsenal in hopes of being able to remain healthy for a full 162.
It’s not like his version of “taking velo off” is substantial. Instead of sitting the normal 98-99 mph like he has in previous years, deGrom plans to have his fastball in the 97 mph range and work from there. As he called it, “pitching smarter.”
The Rangers also have a plan in place — they plan to start deGrom at the back-end of their rotation in order to manage workload, have a little extra time before his long-awaited start, and still dominate.
Unfortunately, there is no actual data I can share that says deGrom will in fact make 25+ starts this season. Like many others, I just hope for baseball’s sake he can stay healthy.
Sights and sounds from Jacob deGrom's 2025 spring debut 🔊
The @Rangers ace tossed two scoreless frames with three strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/i9e9dAR0Fo
— Victory+ (@victoryplustv) March 8, 2025
Bottom line: It would be cruel for the baseball gods to hit the future Hall of Famer with yet another career-impacting injury. Let’s watch greatness while we still can.
Seattle Mariners: Matt Brash is Their Most Effective Bullpen Arm
Brash is electric when healthy, with a five-pitch arsenal headlined by an average fastball velo that sat 98.1 mph (98th percentile) and a nasty 15-run value slider that generated nearly a 50% whiff rate in his last healthy season, 2023. During that season, he posted a 3.06 ERA/2.26 FIP, .238 BAA, 1.33 WHIP, and 34.7% strikeout rate in 70.2 innings, holding 24 games and saving five.
Brash seemed well on his way to becoming part of the next generating of flamethrowing stars until he underwent Tommy John surgery performed by Dr. Keith Meister last May.
While he has not made an in-game spring debut yet, Brash reportedly threw a bullpen early last week and a live BP session on Sunday (see below):
https://www.twitter.com/shannondrayer/status/1901334682719166901
Bottom line: If Brash returns to form, he is the X-factor in the Mariners’ bullpen. I think he can not only be better than his 2023 self but become the most effective arm in their pen.
Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson Wins the AL Batting Title
Everywhere he goes, Jacob Wilson hits for average. That’s why the (formerly-known) Oakland Athletics selected Wilson with the sixth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Grand Canyon University.
Wilson has maintained a crazy career batting average, hitting .350+ in both college and the pros since 2021:
- College (155 G): .361
- MiLB (79 G): .401
Wilson was also 23-92 (.250 AVG) with an elite 39.7% squared-up rate in the majors with the A’s last season, and had he not gone down with a freak injury, I’m confident he would have climbed over the .300 mark once again. He finished the year with a hit in eight of his final 11 games, posting a .289 AVG over that stretch.
Bottom line: This isn’t rocket science. Give Wilson some at-bats and he will hit for a high batting average.
Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore Places Top 3 in AL Rookie of the Year Voting
Like Cam Smith, Christian Moore is another right-handed slugger who was selected in last year’s MLB Draft and is poised to break out with his pro club.
Of course, the Angels are one of the most aggressive organizations at promoting young talent. Moore is no exception, and with the way his bat has looked, it won’t be long until he’s in the show.
Moore slashed .375/.451/.797/1.248 with the University of Tennessee en route to winning the National Championship, was taken eighth overall by the Angels, and then proceeded to slash .347/.400/.584/.984 with 12 extra-base hits in just 25 minor league games.
The 22-year-old has gotten plenty of run this spring, playing in 19 games thus far. It wouldn’t shock me if Moore is up to start the year or at least within the first few months.
Christian Moore just tripled against Cade Smith, who was one of the best relievers in the Majors last season pic.twitter.com/W6ZYGoAlS7
— Brent Maguire (@bmags94) March 4, 2025
Bottom line: Due to the Angels’ aggressive promotion system, Moore will be up in the majors at some point in 2025 and when he is, he will make an impact.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers: Ben Casparius Is Legit
Casparius was marvelous in his debut with the Dodgers, posting a 2.16 ERA/1.73 FIP and 32.5% strikeout rate in 8.1 innings last season. He previously owned a 3.35 ERA, .198 BAA, 1.25 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts-per-nine in 88.2 innings pitched with LA’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates as well.
In four playoff appearances, Casparius allowed just one earned run while striking out five batters in 6.1 innings pitched.
The Connecticut product has also struck out six batters in another 6.1 innings this spring. What’s even better? As of Monday, Casparius is tied with Hunter Greene with the best Stuff+ among all spring arms (113).
The 26-year-old right-hander showcases a four-pitch mix including a fastball that sits in the 96 mph range, plus a slider, curveball, and cutter that each generated whiff rates above 33.3% last season.
https://www.twitter.com/dodger_daily/status/1901280322622292176
Bottom line: if Casparius’ stuff translates, the Dodgers already-loaded bullpen just got even better.
San Diego Padres: Xander Bogaerts Joins the 20/20 Club
It sounds crazy, but Bogaerts has never gone 20/20 in his 12-year big league career. The truth is Bogey has never been much of a base stealer… until he’s come to San Diego.
In five years with Boston (2018-2022), Bogaerts stole 33 bases. Over the past two years, albeit being injury-riddled, X has swiped 32 bags.
| Year (G) | HR | SB |
| 2023 (155) | 19 | 19 |
| 2024 (111) | 11 | 13 |
He averaged seven stolen bases (9 SB per 162) with Boston. Now with San Diego, he’s averaging 19 per 162.
Bogaerts is also due to break out offensively with San Diego. He hasn’t hit 20+ home runs since 2021 and was brutal at the dish last season, slashing .264/.307/.381/.688, his worst year statistically since his debut season.
Bottom line: His newfound ability to steal bases combined with the fact that Bogaerts is looking to bounce back with the bat helps me believe this is the year he will finally go 20/20.
San Francisco Giants: Patrick Bailey Wins the Platinum Glove
Patrick Bailey is the reigning NL Gold Glove winner at the catcher position and one of the best defenders in baseball. Last season, he posted 98th percentile CS Above Avg (+10), 97th percentile pop time (1.85), and 100th percentile Framing (+16).
He also had a 37.0 defensive rating on FanGraphs — by far the most in baseball. His 23.7 FRM (1st amongst catchers), 15 rSZ (1st), 20 DRS (T-2 in MLB, 1st among catchers), and 5 rSB (2nd amongst catchers) were ultra-impressive as well.
Bottom line: It’s pretty simple, Bailey is one of the best defenders in baseball at a premium position. It’s only a matter of time before he wins the Platinum Glove.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Martinez is the Best Reliever in Baseball
You want pure stuff? Look no further than Arizona’s Justin Martinez.
2024 Metrics:
- 100th percentile fastball velo… sat 100.3 mph!!
- 34.5% whiff rate (96th)
- 29.5% strikeout rate (89th)
- 2.8% barrel rate (99th)
- 60.3% ground-ball rate (97th)
How about a 19 strikeouts-per-nine in Triple-A. Or the fact he posted a 2.48 ERA/2.59 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, .188 BAA, and 11.3 strikeouts-per-nine in 72.2 major league innings throughout his rookie season? He is untouchable. A cheat code.
Martinez has already struck out nine batters in 6.0 spring innings featuring Stuff+ grades that are off the charts.
https://www.twitter.com/Aces/status/1901088594468761619
Bottom line: Martinez has a video game-type arm. He likely has the best, most pure stuff in baseball right now. It’s about harnessing that in 2025, and I believe he’s well on his way to doing so.
Colorado Rockies: Two Top 20 Arms in Their Pipeline
Chase Dollander (MLB: #25, Rockies’ #1) and Brody Brecht (MLB: NR, Rockies’ #5) are two of the most dynamic pitching prospects in baseball.
Dollander, 23, posted a 2.59 ERA/2.92 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, .215 BAA, and 13 strikeouts-per-nine last season in the minors. His four-pitch mix includes a 65-grade fastball that touches 98-99 mph with great underlying metrics, a 60-grade slider, and both a 55-grade curveball and changeup. Walks have hurt him so far this spring, but he has struck out 11 batters in 10.1 IP. There is no doubt he enters into the top 20 if he continues on the trajectory he is on.
Brecht on the other hand is the wild card. He is not ranked inside MLB Pipeline’s top 100, likely because he is yet to make his organizational debut. He is a power righty who utilizes a 70-grade fastball/slider combo, plus a splitter for a vert weapon. Walks are a question here, like most arms with this big of stuff.
Bottom line: if Rockies Player Development can harness the pure stuff from these two, Colorado has quite the duo at the top of their rotation in the near future.
Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)