Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, highlighting three teams among the different tiers of contention. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article, but where’s the fun in that?
After a week with an NL-only approach, today we turn to the Junior Circuit, where the league’s lack of dominant teams has created a scenario where nearly every team (RIP, Angels and Royals) is a winning streak away of being a playoff contender. This just happened for the Red Sox, while the Twins are living proof that they key in 2026 is simply to avoid being bad over a long stretch. Meanwhile, the Rays have actually been pretty good, and they could be in line for an unprecedented trade deadline.
Contender
No. 3 Tampa Bay Rays (56-38, +32 run differential)
The Rays were arguably the best team in baseball for most of April and May, making the most of their return to Tropicana Field and setting up a season-long battle for positioning with the Yankees in the AL East. While things cooled off from there, Tampa Bay has settled into being a truly professional ballclub which has yet to lose more than four straight, with an offense that will provide good at-bats all around and a pitching staff that can oscillate between effective and fantastic, with few hiccups in the process. This Rays formula, which had been absent in their two-year playoff drought, is ready to take the team back to the promised land. The question, as usual with the Rays, is whether they will be able to make some noise against richer teams in October.
The crux for the 2026 Rays is that their foundation is not built on power, regardless of the impressive exploits of Junior Caminero. Caminero’s recent power outburst and 28 total homers are a true outlier for the team, as Tampa Bay’s second-best power threat is Jonathan Aranda, whose 14 homers do not profile him as a power threat. The Rays are in the bottom-ten rankings in terms of homers and doubles, but are well above-average in drawing walks, hitting singles, and stealing bases, which in turn provide the offense plenty of chances to create runs in several ways. A similarly temperate approach is working for the pitching staff, as the Rays remain an elite squad in terms of run prevention despite a bottom-ten strikeout rate, instead trusting in their defense and the art of inducing soft contact. Even with a lack of a clear ace, Tampa has shown a knack for putting their pitchers in positions where they can succeed, while also having a clear late-game edge with their alliteration duo of Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker, who have combined for 29 saves and a 2.12 ERA.
According to Bob Nightengale’s report, the #RaysUp aren’t just dipping their toes into the trade market, they’re cannonballing in 👀
With the AL wide open, Tampa Bay reportedly plans to be aggressive buyers, with Tarik Skubal at the top of the wishlist. If that doesn’t happen,… pic.twitter.com/dLrJ5DcxEc
— Christopher Mathis 🎙 (@thechrismathis) July 12, 2026
Last week’s series split with the Yankees provided a glimpse of how it can all go right for the Rays, but also how things can go south in a hurry for a roster devoid of difference-makers. As it usually happens with low-budget squads, star power can be the difference in the playoffs, and a great regular season can go down the drain with nothing to show for it. We all know that Tampa’s front office is not used to making big trades, but rather add around the margins, but a weakened AL East and Junior Caminero’s star turn at age 22 could create a scenario where the Rays go all-in like never before. With playoff odds around 98% and a GM being open about the team’s intentions to add a big name, this could finally be the year Tampa Bay makes some noise around the deadline.
The Middle
No. 13 Boston Red Sox (46-48, +27 run differential)
After being part of every contention tier in these rankings, it is still hard to make heads or tails of these Red Sox. On the one hand, just a couple of weeks ago they were 37-48, coming off two embarrassing losses against the Nationals. Their last winning month dated back to September 2025, and their season had been marked by injuries, suspensions, and a general sense of missed opportunities, including the sad firing of manager Alex Cora. Fast forward to today, and Boston has again strung together an impressive winning streak before the break, as the 2025 Red Sox won ten straight by this exact point. The team’s current nine-game run, all coming on the road, included an impressive sweep of the White Sox, but also two series against objectively terrible teams to sandwich it, which leads many to wonder if Boston can carry this momentum towards a serious shot at the playoffs.
On July 2, the Boston Red Sox were in last in the AL East, had the fourth-worst record in the league and were 6.5 games back of the final wild card spot with six teams to leap.
Today, the Red Sox are a half-game behind Minnesota and Seattle for that final wild card spot. pic.twitter.com/bLcIujsW23
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 12, 2026
An optimistic approach can say that the Red Sox are finally finding their ideal offensive combination along with a competitive rotation that can handle most of the weak teams in the American League. Willson Contreras was a deserving All-Star, while Ceddanne Rafaela got in as a replacement, but he has been arguably the team’s most important player. Contributions from Wilyer Abreu and Caleb Durbin have stabilized the offense, along with the unexpected play of Anthony Seigler and Andruw Monasterio, both of whom have been instrumental to the winning streak. However, if the Sox are to keep this up, they will need to rely on their superior pitching. Eight of their nine recent wins saw them limit the opposition to two runs or fewer; even if that came against the Angels and Mets, it is still impressive.
Yet another career resurgence for Sonny Gray has reminded us that he may be the most underappreciated ace of his era, while the sudden ace-like results of Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett have propelled Boston to a top-five staff ERA in all of baseball. With the one-two punch of Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman being automatic to close out wins, there is a formula for the Red Sox to stay in the wild card race, but they need to start winning against good teams as well. Following the break, Boston will face a ten-game homestand against AL East foes, including four against Tampa, immediately followed by a West Coast trip featuring a showdown with the Dodgers. Results from that grueling slate should provide clarity for the front office regarding its approach towards the deadline.
It once seemed inevitable that Boston would deal Chapman and try for a quick reset, but their current form is ready to alter those plans. In such a strange year for the franchise and its legendary ballpark, the path is now open for October baseball.
Wait ‘Til 2027
No. 21 Minnesota Twins (48-49, -14 run differential)
A year ago, the Twins went ahead and completed one of the most daring and honest sell-offs in the history of baseball, trading away nearly half their roster. Even as they retained a few of their core players, these moves suggested that Minnesota was ready to engage in a serious rebuilding effort, probably needing years before they could contend. There was one factor that many of us ignored in that equation, as the fact that the Twins are part of the AL Central could create a situation where the team could stay relevant. As the All-Star break is giving each team a chance to regroup, the Twins find themselves fighting for a playoff spot as the third wild card, within striking distance of the top spot in the Central as well.
Minnesota’s formula to get to this point has been far from sexy, as they do not excel in many categories across the league. Instead, they have relied on the availability and star play of Byron Buxton to sustain the offense, while many of its young contributors have graduated from league-average to serviceable, leading the Twins to a top-10 scoring offense. The pitching staff held its ace and Joe Ryan has responded with another All-Star season, while Taj Bradley, a mid-season addition from 2025, has finally found the consistency that once made him a touted prospect. Even with the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball, the Twins have found a formula to stay afloat, never sustaining any long winning or losing streaks, which may be just the thing any Central team requires to be part of the division race.
The only team with two starting pitchers in the top 10 in K/9:
The Minnesota Twins 🔥
The Twins have remained in the AL playoff race in large part because of these two! pic.twitter.com/sKgJHRaOWG
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 8, 2026
Having won eight of their past nine series, the mood is changing around Minnesota. They are probably not in the market for any big acquisition at the deadline, but even a couple of decent relievers could be enough to add stability to a team that looked destined for a lost season. With Buxton on the IL once again, his health status could be the difference between an earnest attempt at a playoff run or a slow descent back to the cellar, making his eventual return one of the biggest storylines in baseball towards the end of July. Minnesota still has 19 games left against the Guardians, White Sox, and Tigers, while a couple of long west-coast road trips will probably complicate things, but with the division still wide open, don’t be surprised if the Twins find a way to their playoff spot since 2023.
