With just over 20 games played in the 2026 regular season, we’re pushing toward that 100 at-bat threshold for hitters, while many pitchers have already taken their fifth turn through the rotation. Not everyone is off to a hot start, but some are certainly more notable than others. It’s too early to push the panic button on underperforming players based on this season’s sample alone. But in this article, all the risers and fallers have consistent paths of success/failures beyond the first 20+ games of this season, which have ultimately impacted their dynasty values. Let’s dive in!
NOTABLE RISERS
Drake Baldwin, C, ATL
I recently put out a poll on the socials to do a heat check on who was the second-best catcher in dynasty, and while I wasn’t surprised by the results, I also kind of was? The available options were Drake Baldwin, Ben Rice, and Samuel Basallo. All three are widely considered Top 5 options behind the dish, and all are viable contenders to be C2 in dynasty. Drake Baldwin received 52% of the vote, followed by Rice (32%) and then Basallo (16%). It’s pretty incredible how quickly Baldwin has become one of the best catchers in the league, especially considering his inclusion on the Braves’ Opening Day roster in 2025 went largely unnoticed. In his debut season in 2025, the 24-year-old NL Rookie of the Year slashed .274/.341/.469 with 19 homers, 18 doubles, and 136 combined runs and RBI, but did not really earn full-time at-bats until mid-season. Baldwin ended up as a staple of the Braves’ lineup down the stretch, playing nearly every day as either the catcher or getting DH at-bats opposite veteran Sean Murphy.
With 2026 now in motion, Baldwin continues to shine. He’s started all 22 games for the Braves this season and is batting .304 with five homers, 21 runs, and 19 RBI. Among qualified catchers, Baldwin ranks inside the Top 5 in nearly every statistical category, including ranking first in runs, hits, and RBI. Early on, Baldwin has been a bit more aggressive at the dish, swinging and chasing more often, and his contact rate has dipped slightly. At the same time, he’s maintained a sub-18% strikeout rate and has improved his quality of contact across the board. It’s safe to say that when Sean Murphy comes off the IL later this month, Baldwin has a lock on the catcher position, and he’s forced the ten-year veteran into a backup role. Baldwin is a Top 75 dynasty asset and should continue to rise as he grows his offensive profile even further.
Dillon Dingler, C, DET
It’s catcher szn! We’ve already touched on Baldwin, but Tigers catcher Dillon Dingler isn’t far behind based on his impact. The 27-year-old burst onto the scene in his first season as the primary catcher in Detroit, winning a Gold Glove and batting .278 with 13 homers and a 109 wRC+. Dingler’s defensive prowess earned him playing time, but he made notable improvements at the plate to fuel his breakout. Dingler already had a strong hit tool, consistently making above-average contact, but he started to barrel the ball much more while also hitting at ideal launch angles. The result was a 7% dip in groundball rate last season and a 98th-percentile LASweetSpot% of 42.3%. With more balls in the air and ideal angles, the power surge came and has now carried over to 2026.
Dingler has been one of the best hitters in the Majors this season, not just among catchers. Through his first 19 games, he’s already homered five times and added four doubles, pushing his SLG to .603 in the early going. Dingler has elite batted-ball data and expected stats, including a 100th percentile xSLG and 99th percentile ratings in xWOBA, xBA, and LASweetSpot%, while reaching a 23.5% barrel rate and a 58.8% hard-hit rate. Plus, he’s got an in-zone contact rate of over 92%, meaning that Dingler is not only hitting everything, but he’s also hitting everything very hard. The one thing I’d like to see Dingler do more is walk, and if he can improve on his 5.5% BB rate, we could be looking at a Top 100 dynasty asset and Top 10 catcher at a very deep position.
Ben Rice, C/1B, NYY
Technically, Rice still has catcher eligibility in some places, but unless his PT picks up behind the plate, the 27-year-old will be first base only in 2027. That aside, position no longer matters for Rice, as he’s emerged as an elite power hitter and has pushed his way inside the Top 35 overall. Rice was a bit of a late bloomer as a prospect, breaking out in his age-24 season at Double-A and not reaching the Majors until nearly a full year later. It wasn’t until 2025 that he became a household name in fantasy circles, mashing 26 homers in just under 500 at-bats. Even then, his value felt suppressed by his lack of PT against left-handed pitching, a trend that continued into this season.
Rice has been red-hot to open 2026, slashing .338/.476/.800 with eight homers, a 21.4% walk rate, and a league-leading 1.276 OPS in his first 21 games. Rice started seeing lefties consistently over the past week, logging six at-bats and homering three times, including dingers against Noah Cameron and Cole Ragans of the Royals. At this point, if Aaron Boone doesn’t play Rice every single day, regardless of opponent, Yankee fans will riot. Other than speed, you can’t find anything on his Savant Page other than the darkest reds, and he’s one of a handful of players with better data than Dingler has this season. Ben Rice is a monster.
Riley O’Brien, RP, STL
It’s hard not to overreact about what Riley O’Brien has done over the last 12 months with the Cardinals, but we’re seeing the emergence of a premier closer. O’Brien spent most of the first two months of last season at Triple-A before getting an extended look in June and taking over as the closer in August. Over the final three months of the season, the 31-year-old posted a 1.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, holding opposing hitters to a .191 average against. As a closer beginning in August, he converted 6 of 9 save opportunities and entered the offseason with momentum to become the guy in 2026.
An early-season calf injury kept O’Brien on the shelf for a good portion of Spring Training, but the layoff has not impacted him. Over his first 12 1/3 innings, O’Brien has yet to allow an earned run, nor has he walked anyone, and has already converted six saves, including five in April. Even with his success last season, the stuff wasn’t excellent, but that hasn’t been the case in 2026. O’Brien’s strikeout rate sits at 34.1% with a 13.7% SwStr%, each of which is way up year-over-year. We don’t love sinkers as a primary pitch, but he’s got a near-40% CSW on the pitch and has an absurd 85.7% groundball rate. In addition to the sinker, O’Brien deploys a slider and sweeper, giving hitters three very different movement profiles to swing at. If he can sustain the bat-missing numbers with an upper-20s strikeout rate, it won’t be long before O’Brien pushes his way inside the Top 200 and becomes a Top 10 RP.
NOTABLE FALLERS
Colton Cowser, OF, BAL
After a quick cup of coffee in 2023, Cowser finally got a full run in 2024 and turned out a .242 average with 24 homers and nine steals. The second half was particularly solid as he hit .267, raising his season-long average and putting aside some early contact concerns. Still, Cowser had a strikeout rate of over 30% on the season, but made up for it with above-average quality of contact and Gold Glove-caliber defense. The wheels fell off in 2025. Despite hitting 16 homers and stealing 14 bases, the 25-year-old hit .196 with an OPS of .655 while his strikeout rate spiked to 35.6%. Obviously, the contact skills aren’t great, but they were especially pronounced in-zone, as Cowser sat sub-80% and just 67.8% overall.
It’s been more of the same in 2026. Through 19 games, his strikeout rate is again pushing 30%, and his contact skills are even worse. Cowser has one extra-base hit this season with an ISO of .022 and a sub-.500 OPS. The lone silver lining is a double-digit walk rate, but even that isn’t enough. It seems like any decrease in defensive skill would push Cowser back to Triple-A, and that may happen anyway. At this point, he’s barely a Top 400 dynasty asset.
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, ARI
It’s obvious that a guy is falling when he has two seasons with an ERA over 5.00 and is now in the bullpen after a horrific start to 2026. That’s the Brandon Pfaadt issue right now. Pfaadt actually looked serviceable in 2024, going 11-10 with a 4.71 ERA in 181 2/3 innings. That season, he struck out over 24% of the hitters he faced while maintaining a respectable 5.5% walk rate. Pfaadt actually lowered the walk rate in 2025, but his strikeouts tanked to under 20%.
From a stuff standpoint, Pfaadt has been trending in the wrong direction each of the past two seasons. In 2026, his PLV dropped below 5.00 for the first time. His cutter and sweeper both grade out above-average, but with less than 30% combined usage, he’s not getting much out of them. For the Diamondbacks, it’s a matter of him not missing enough bats, and with inferior stuff, the results aren’t going to be there. It’s been a drastic fall for the one-time MiLB strikeout leader, but Pfaadt is well outside the Top 400 at this point.
