The NL East saw three teams make the playoffs in 2024, with the division-leading Phillies boasting one of the best playoff rotations in MLB. The second-place Braves even led MLB in ERA, and the third-place Mets saw their impressive pitching development continue taking shape, helping starters Sean Manaea and Luis Severino boast resurgent years.
These three teams enter 2025 with pitching as a strong point, although starters Jesús Luzardo, Bryce Elder, and Griffin Canning are seeking bounce-back seasons in 2025. While these three starters may have different roles for their respective teams in 2025, they could easily be the x-factor their teams need to lead the division with a resurgent season akin to a season in their pasts.
Jesús Luzardo enters 2025 as the projected SP5 for a Phillies team boasting one of the strongest rotations in baseball. Traded from Miami in the offseason, Luzardo is coming off a shortened season in 2024, where he posted a 5.00 ERA/4.26 FIP in just 12 starts.
After suffering a back injury in mid-June, Luzardo didn’t make another start for the rest of the season. Luzardo is reportedly fully healthy entering 2025 and is looking for a season closer to his 2023 campaign this season, where he had a 3.58 ERA/3.55 FIP over 32 starts.
One of the most noticeable differences between these two years for Luzardo was his velocity; while still solid in 2024, his fastball was down nearly two ticks (96.7 to 95.2 mph) on his four-seam, while his secondary pitches were similarly down across the board. As Luzardo has an unusually low extension (5.7 in 2024), each mph counts in keeping his fastball sharp.
Luzardo also raised his arm slot four degrees in 2024, changing the shape of his fastballs and changeup, which wasn’t liked by Stuff+ (98 in 2024, down from 107 in 2023).
Luzardo has always been a unique arm; be sure to check out Nate Schwartz’s “How Jesús Luzardo Succeeds with a Dead Zone Fastball” from 2024 to learn a bit more about how Luzardo’s fastball worked so well in 2023. To get back to harnessing his unique fastball shape, health is likely the biggest factor in projecting Luzardo’s 2025 season.
In addition, Luzardo now faces a far less pivotal role as the SP5 with the Phillies, rather than attempting to fill an injured Sandy Alcantara’s role as the Marlins ace in 2024. Still, with prospects such as Andrew Painter looming in the minors, Luzardo needs a strong start in 2025 to prove his value.
Bryce Elder had an awful 2024 season, posting a 6.52 ERA/4.56 FIP in 10 starts, splitting time between MLB and AAA. Elder is now projected to be depth for an elite Braves rotation despite being one of their most valuable starters just a year prior.
Despite his mediocre stuff, Elder defied most predictive stats in 2023, tossing 31 starts with a 3.81 ERA/4.42 FIP with a fastball sitting below 90 mph. Regression was likely the biggest culprit for his disastrous 2024 season, as his FIP was nearly unchanged, yet there is still much to consider as Elder looks to bounce back in 2025.
Elder’s low-spin sinker led his arsenal well in 2023, generating solid ball-in-play metrics (4.9% barrel rate, 57.4% ground-ball rate) as his slider helped with swing-and-miss numbers (33.2 CSW%, 17.3 SwStr%). While Elder saw more strikeouts in 2024, his sinker was crushed, and his secondaries weren’t able to induce ideal contact either.
Elder is now on the outside of a stacked Braves rotation as depth, despite being one of their most valuable starters just two years ago. Still, I believe there’s a way Elder can return to his 2023 form and become a solid Major League starter again.
One intriguing part of Elder’s 2024 season was his FIP—it was nearly identical to 2023, increasing from 4.42 to 4.56. While a mid-four’s FIP is not ideal, a pitcher like Elder can still work around it by inducing ideal contact. Elder’s HR/9 jumped from 0.98 to 1.45 in 2024 while his FB% was relatively unchanged, suggesting his fly ball luck could improve a bit in 2025.
At just 25, there are a few changes that could help Elder improve as a starter, such as adding some velocity (like he did in 2024), a new pitch (sweeper? curveball?), or improving his pitch usage; 43% sinker is a little high for how poorly the pitch performed last year, and his solid changeup should probably see some more use.
Regardless, Elder will likely begin the season in AAA and will have to pitch well there to earn a Major League spot. Still, I believe Elder has a future in MLB and could certainly have a strong season in 2025.
Like Elder, Canning was projected to be outside of the Mets’ projected rotation, yet injuries to starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas Jr. in Spring Training will likely give Canning the opportunity to start the season in the Mets rotation. Still, Canning will have to start the season strong to stay ahead of rising prospects like Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell knocking on the door to the Majors.
In 2024, Canning had a 5.19 ERA/5.26 FIP over 31 starts/32 appearances with the Angels and signed a 1-year deal with the Mets in the offseason to provide depth to a high-risk, high-reward rotation.
Canning’s 2024 season was characterized by a sudden drop in strikeouts. After striking out 25.9% of batters in 2023, which is above league average, Canning dropped to a career-worst 17.6% in 2024. Canning also walked more batters (8.9 BB%, up from 6.7 in 2023) and allowed a career-worst 31 home runs. This comes after Canning posted a 4.32 ERA/4.29 FIP in 2023 following Canning’s 20-month-long recovery from a back injury. Prior to this, Canning was a league-average starter over parts of three seasons.
Canning’s stuff was down across the board in 2024, with his velocity down a tick across the board as well with stuff models generally disliking his arsenal. While his changeup continued to perform well and his slider got some whiffs, he didn’t have much else to work with.
Thankfully, Canning still has a few things going for him. First is his track record, as Canning had pretty underrated stuff throughout his career and looked very strong under the hood in 2023; his 25.9 K%, 3.76 xFIP, and 6.7 BB% were all career highs.
Second is his new team, as Canning is moving from a notoriously traditional Angels development staff to an impressive Mets staff, responsible for resurgent seasons from starters Luis Severino and Sean Manaea in 2024. The Mets were also confident enough to have taken risks on arms like Canning this year, in addition to adding a newly starting Clay Holmes.
Overall, Canning needs a lot to go right for a strong season in 2025, but I believe in the talent. Canning stayed in the Majors and made 31 starts for a non-competitive Angels team in 2024, a career-high, and a more flexible role with the Mets could likely help Canning focus on his stuff and bounce back this season.