With pitchers and catchers warming up around warm-weather states, rosters mostly set, and Spring Training just around the corner, it looks like the perfect time to size up how each division could fare in the upcoming season. Starting today, we will use every Wednesday up to Opening Day to talk about the state of every team and division around MLB, using Steamer projections to give us an idea of how depth charts and competitive cycles are lining up in 2026.
To kick things off, we have the traditionally bland AL Central, which has not seen a team post at least 94 wins since 2019. Even as the division has produced seven above-.500 records over the past two seasons and gave us a tight race in 2025, things are not looking particularly rosy for this year. With the Tigers looking as clear favorites and the rest of the bunch failing to invest in major talent and/or in the middle of important rebuilds, the Central could become a predictable affair in terms of the divisional race.
Chicago White Sox – 2025 Record: 62-100 – 2026 Projection: 69-93
After hitting Rockies-level rock bottom in 2024, the White Sox have quietly and steadily climbed to a more respectable state, and they will now look to avoid the classic pitfalls of a deep rebuild. The logical move of unloading most of their veteran talent and giving ample playing time to young players has produced mixed results, but it is still enough to give Chicago’s front office the benefit of the doubt. The Sox are looking at an offense that will probably struggle to score consistently, but any further development of youngsters like Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery, and Chase Meidroth should provide Chicago with a blueprint to eventually complement them with capable free agents in the near future.
The White Sox did at least produce one of the most enigmatic and exciting signings of the offseason, bringing in NPB import Munetaka Murakami, who has divided opinions on how he will be able to translate his massive power and high strikeout rate to MLB. Given Chicago’s low expectations to contend, Murakami should have plenty of wiggle room to adapt and become a key cog for a franchise that has spent nearly a half-decade without a cornerstone player. The trade of Luis Robert Jr. should also alleviate some of the constant chatter and distractions for a team that is now projected to keep improving in the win column, albeit still a year or two away from playoff contention.
𝙝𝙞𝙩𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 the ground running pic.twitter.com/WPftS14nG2
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) February 14, 2026
With Chicago’s best arms still in the minors, and several veteran stopgaps signed to fill the rotation and bullpen, expect plenty of high-scoring games in which the Sox come up short, but that doesn’t mean that the front office (and even their fans) won’t be satisfied with how this season goes. Fourth place in the Central is a realistic high-end scenario for this team in 2026, with Murakami becoming an early wild card for AL Rookie of the Year.
Cleveland Guardians – 2025 Record: 88-74 – 2026 Projection: 76-86
It is often said that you cannot win a division in April, but you can certainly lose it. But what happens when you have lost it before the season even started? That seems to be the case in Cleveland, as the Guardians have seemingly taken their usual frugal ways to an extreme that threatens to produce a truly uninspiring season. Sure, the seven-year extension that should make José Ramírez a Guardian for life was a nice touch, but then proceeding to add zero help on offense was a curious decision for a lineup that ranked in the bottom five in several categories during 2025.
Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt on Jose Ramirez:
“He probably has the highest baseball IQ I've ever been around.” pic.twitter.com/bsOWWJ5yk1
— The Baseball Laboratory (@BaseballLabX) February 17, 2026
It is easy to see why projection systems are predicting a massive drop-off for Cleveland, especially as the offense seems to consist of the elite Ramirez, the solid Steven Kwan, and seven average-to-below-average bats. In a division where pitching has become a calling card, the Guardians are clearly several steps behind their peers, which is a true shame, especially considering how this team was able to earn an exciting division title last season. Cleveland’s playoff ouster, where they scored only four runs over their two losses against the Tigers, could be a harbinger for how this team will struggle to score on a daily basis.
Even as the franchise has managed to turn the page on the Emmanuel Clase mess, Cleveland’s staff as a whole will not be enough to overcome the team’s offensive limitations. Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee are a solid one-two punch atop the rotation, and Cade Smith has emerged as a frontline closer, but that has made it more likely for him to become a trade piece around the deadline, especially as the franchise needs more cheap impact prospects to round out the lineup. Outside of the usual brilliance of José Ramírez and the probable call-up of prospect Travis Bazzana, this could quickly become a bleak year in Cleveland.
Minnesota Twins – 2025 Record: 70-92 – 2026 Projection: 79-83
As the most recent 100-win team in the Central, and even the division’s winner just three years ago, it has been kind of shocking to see how the Twins have imploded. Despite employing some of the best players in the AL, let alone the division, for several seasons, Minnesota has struggled to keep them on the field and find consistency, culminating in last season’s trade deadline fire sale that saw nearly half of the Twins’ active roster shipped off elsewhere. This offseason has done little to improve the franchise’s PR or outlook for 2026, even as the projections are a bit optimistic of their chances to at least hover around .500.
There are a few positive signs for this roster, without even needing to squint. Bryce Buxton remains a force and played more than 125 games for the first time since 2017. Joe Ryan is a dark-horse contender for the AL Cy Young award and will be part of Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Luke Keaschall headlines the youth movement for an offense that includes seven potential homegrown starters. Royce Lewis can’t be injured forever, right?….right? The team will even feature a real-life twin (Taylor Rogers) as its primary closer! However, all of that may not be enough to give Minnesota the benefit of the doubt, as it looks likely that some of these positive signs become trade bait to complete the teardown that started in 2025. The recently announced injury to Pablo López may become the proverbial nail in the coffin for a season that has yet to start.
The Minnesota Twins Experience™ pic.twitter.com/CHnUSWHR4s
— Shark Lark (@SharkLarkPlays) February 17, 2026
A division like the Central could provide breathing room for the Twins, especially if their stars remain healthy and productive, but the team’s murky ownership situation and lack of investment on the big league club are sure signs that a deep rebuild is just beginning. Minnesota has not dipped below 70 wins since the disastrous 2016 campaign, but that possibility is looking more and more likely as the season approaches.
Kansas City Royals – 2025 Record: 82-80 – 2026 Projection: 81-81
The aforementioned White Sox could look at the Royals as an inspiration or a cautionary tale, as their long trek back to respectability took them long enough but has at least produced one of the most fun and optimistic teams in the majors. Even as Kansas City failed to produce consecutive playoff trips, they at least had a winning record in 2025 and had several positive developments, including an aggressive trade deadline in which they added some veterans. Financial restrictions will always keep the Royals on a lower tier among potential contenders, but it is refreshing to see a mid-market team aim to improve as much as it can, especially as that momentum carried over to this offseason.
Blessing your feed with a Salvy smile. 😁 pic.twitter.com/9pg8Di5gDn
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) February 17, 2026
After locking up face-of-the-franchise Bobby Witt, Jr. for the long haul, the front office awarded Maikel Garcia with a long-term deal of his own, giving the Royals two exciting everyday players to shore up the offense. The rest of the lineup may not be as dynamic, but the team decided to take a gamble by modifying Kauffman Stadium’s dimensions for this season, possibly giving a boost to their power numbers. That should be good news for the likes of Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, who is still a delight as he pushes to remain the starting catcher at age 36. The biggest X factor for this offense will certainly be 23-year-old Jac Caglianone, who struggled mightily in his first taste of MLB but now will have a full offseason to improve and shake off some of the pressure of being a highly-touted rookie.
The projected full-time return of Cole Ragans to the rotation provides a massive boost for this staff, as the Royals appear to have sneaky-good options all around the rotation and bullpen. Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, and Seth Lugo may not gather headlines, but they make a solid group to avoid any long losing streaks, while the frontline bullpen trio of Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, and the recently-acquired Matt Strahm should become one of the best bullpen cores in the AL. While the Tigers are the clear favorite to take the crown, it would not be surprising to see the Royals give them a scare, as they should remain relevant in the Wild Card race all season long.
Detroit Tigers – 2025 Record: 87-75 – 2026 Projection: 85-77
The Tigers have not won a division title since 2014 and project to win a couple of fewer games than in 2025, but most pundits agree that it will still be enough to break the spell, even as Detroit collapsed late last season and had to settle for a second straight playoff appearance via wild card. Detroit did beat the Guardians in the wild-card round and then lost a heartbreaker in the ALDS, as the Tigers could have easily played Toronto for the pennant. That bitter ending appeared to fuel the team’s desire to improve in 2026, but even that approach was tempered by the usual financial constraints this franchise has experienced since the heyday of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder sharing the infield.
Despite employing the clear-cut best pitcher on the planet, Detroit’s offseason started with talks of potentially trading him before the final year of his contract, which would have been a deflating proposition. Tarik Skubal will play his walk year for the Tigers, unless something goes terribly wrong, but that arrangement included a very public arbitration hearing that saw the two-time Cy Young winner earn the largest one-year arbitration payment in history. Detroit now enters the 2026 season knowing that Skubal is a goner next season, and with that comes a sense of urgency to capitalize and make a deep playoff run.
i’m emotional pic.twitter.com/bCzMmE7nRY
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) February 17, 2026
The signing of Framber Valdez adds a top-tier #2 starter to complement Skubal, while Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize are among the best mid-rotation arms you can find. Justin Verlander will try to make his return to Detroit more than a feel-good story, and fellow veteran Kenley Jansen should continue to defy Father Time as he becomes the primary closer. The Tigers’ low win projection mostly stems from an enigmatic offense, especially as the front office failed to add any impact bats to complement an inconsistent attack. The duo of Riley Greene and Gleyber Torres was capable of carrying the lineup through many stretches in 2025, but the team’s late-season fade should serve as a reminder that the offense needs more from the likes of Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter if they are to compete with the AL’s big boys.
