In each of the past two seasons, I have dug into how batted ball data could ultimately impact a player’s dynasty value. In June of 2023, I wrote an article looking at making assumptions over a player’s future performance based on their minor league batted ball data. Last season, I confirmed those results through additional data and identified minor league players that fell into both ideal and non-ideal swing path categories. This article will be similar to last year’s. The article below reconfirms the thought process behind the ideal swing paths and then identifies three dynasty prospects with concerning swing paths and three whose swing paths should have dynasty managers excited.
Recapping and Expanding the Data
The first edition of this article was a lot of math. In a similar sense to last year, this article does not dive too far into the math. If you are interested in the math behind that article, I encourage you to click the link in the opening paragraph. The purpose of this article is to reconfirm that this research is still accurate. First, here is a quick recap of what the findings were. Batters were broken up into two separate sections: an “ideal” swing path and a “not ideal” swing path. The findings revealed that batters who posted a line drive rate of at least 22% and a ground-ball percentage of less than 45% had a statistically higher wRC+ than batters with a ground-ball rate of over 50%.
Now that we have yet another season of data under our belts, I wanted to look at how players have performed based on their batted ball distributions. Based on the previous research, the results were expected, but still glaring. From 2021-2025, there were 346 instances in which a player posted an ideal swing path that season. The average wRC+ of those players was 105.4. On the flip side, there were 231 instances of a non-ideal swing path. The average wRC+ of those players was 89.9. Performing a statistical significance test while assuming normality resulted in a p-value that is less than 0.01, proving that the two values are statistically different.
Dynasty managers utilizing this data need to be aware that this is not the end-all all be-all. Just because there is statistical significance, it does not mean there will not be outliers. Christian Yelich hits a ton of ground balls. In four of the five seasons used, Yelich found himself in the non-ideal group. However, his wRC+ in those seasons was: 102, 111, 123, and 154. This standard should be used for most hitters, but the elite tend to be excluded. This also does not mean that swing paths cannot change. Minor league players are still developing. As we saw with Junior Caminero in 2025, a small adjustment to his swing path could completely transform a player’s game. This data should simply be used as a guide while assessing a prospect’s value in dynasty leagues.
Prospects with Concerning Swing Paths
Note: Last year, the three players included in this article were Henry Bolte, Justin Crawford, and Welbyn Francsica. Crawford and Bolte would still fit into this category, but were excluded due to being highlighted last season. Francisca lowered his ground ball rate to 47.4% last year, taking him out of the “not ideal swing path” group.
Hayden Alvarez – LAA
Hayden Alvarez has seen his name pop up in a few of my articles over the past season. The lanky 6’3″ outfielder broke out in his second season of professional baseball. Originally signed out of the DR prior to the 2024 season, Alvarez’s initial production was underwhelming. A great athlete, he stole 32 bases in 50 games, but failed to show much offensive promise outside of projectability. This changed in 2025 as Alvarez moved stateside. In 75 games split between the Complex League and Low-A, Alvarez hit an impressive .340 with 33 stolen bases. His 135 wRC+ caught the eyes of many dynasty managers who are now excited about what the future has in store.
The excitement around Alvarez comes from his projectability. Alvarez has already shown what he can do with his legs. He is a plus-plus runner and a great athlete. Dynasty managers should expect the stolen base totals to slow down a bit as his frame fills out and he adds muscle, but he still projects as a 25-30 stolen base player. On top of that, Alvarez has an extremely polished hit tool. Typically, toolsy and projectable prospects come with significant hit tool risk. Not Alvarez, who walked 13.8% of the time last season with an 81.5% contact rate.
Now, the hit tool is not perfect. That is the whole reason that Alvarez lands in this section. His swing path can get a bit choppy at times. So focused on making contact, Alvarez has a tendency to swing down on the ball in order to make contact in any way possible. His ground ball rate last season was 54.2%. A groundball rate this high makes his .411 BABIP even more unsustainable. His ground ball rate also prevents him from getting to the power his tall frame projects to have. He hit only two home runs this season after hitting zero in 2024. The development of his game power is essential to his ultimate fantasy value. This all starts with an adjustment to his swing path. Dynasty managers are right to be excited about Alvarez’s potential, but need to be aware of the risk associated with his current swing path.
James Triantos – CHC
James Triantos development has been extremely disappointing from a dynasty perspective. Triantos looked like a rising star throughout 2023 and 2024. A speedy infielder with excellent contact skills and budding power, Triantos was a highly sought-after dynasty asset. Unfortunately, that budding power never fully blossomed, capping his dynasty value. The progression in Triantos’ development has seemed to stall at the Triple-A level. In 102 games there last season, Triantos hit just .258 with 28 stolen bases and seven home runs. Even more concerning was the change in Triantos’ swing path.
Early in his professional career, Triantos showed a natural ability to hit line drives. This continued in 2024 as Triantos hit line drives 24% of the time, although his ground ball rate rising to 49% was a mild concern. This concern grew into reality in 2025 as Triantos saw his ground ball rate jump to 55.9%. Although his contact skills remained strong, it has become increasingly clear that most of Triantos’ contact comes from pitcher’s-pitches. Triantos’ aggressive approach at the plate has been exploited by pitchers at the highest levels of the minor leagues. The result has been a lot of ground balls and weak contact. Neither is encouraging for Triantos’ dynasty value.
At this point, Triantos is profiling as more of a utility bat than a true difference maker. There are still positives in Triantos’ profile. His contact rates remain strong, and he profiles as a 30+ stolen base threat at the major league level. However, barring adjustments in both his approach and swing path, Triantos profiles to have below-average power. Weak contact, especially on the ground, is a death sentence at the major league level. Turning 23 in January 2026 represents a make-or-break year for Triantos’ dynasty value.
Kemp Alderman – MIA
Kemp Alderman’s 2025 breakout seemingly came out of nowhere. Drafted out of Ole Miss in the second round of the 2023 draft, Alderman struggled to produce in his debut season. A below-average hit tool fueled a high strikeout rate, making his future projection underwhelming. Then, everything seemed to click for Alderman last season. In 130 games split between Double and Triple-A, Alderman’s average increased by 33 points up to .285. In addition, he hit 22 home runs and stole 22 bases. His 2025 success has put him firmly back on the radar for dynasty managers, and there is a strong chance he makes his major league debut in 2026.
Starting with the good, before we get to the bad, Alderman’s profile is enticing. He is a plus runner and profiles to add 15-20 stolen bases per season for fantasy managers. That, combined with his significant raw power, makes his upside substantial. The sample size was small, but at Triple-A, Alderman posted an average exit velocity of 95mph with a max EV of 114.4. If the Marlins can get him to tap into his pull-side pop more consistently, there is 30-homer upside. Alderman also improved his contact rate last season while also showing increased patience at the plate. This bodes well for creating a more stable floor in his projection.
Not everything in Alderman’s profile is a plus, though. The obvious, Alderman does not have an ideal swing path. The raw power is certainly a plus, but getting to it consistently projects to be a problem. Alderman’s ground ball rate last season was up at 51.5%. In fact, ground balls are something that Alderman has struggled with throughout his professional career. His 2025 is undoubtedly exciting. His dynasty potential is significant, but a swing adjustment is necessary to unlock his full potential.
Underrated Prospects with Ideal Swing Paths
Luke Adams– MIL
Luke Adams is always highly ranked in my pieces, but is rarely talked about. His falling into the ideal swing path category felt like the perfect time to extrapolate on his ranking and the belief in his potential for dynasty managers. Adams was selected in the 12th round of the 2022 draft. Especially as a corner infielder coming out of high school, few were paying much attention when Adams hit .375 in his 11-game professional debut. As 2023 rolled around, Adams’ unique batting stance caught the attention of some, as did his stat line. Adams finished the season with 11 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 130 wRC+. His swing became more “normal” in 2024, and he once again put up strong numbers with 11 homers, 28 steals, and a 153 wRC+. Unfortunately, injuries limited Adams’ 2025 season to just 72 games. However, in those, he once again managed to hit 11 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a 158 wRC+.
The biggest takeaway from 2025 was the increase in Adams’ home run total. He only hit 11, but his HR/FB% jumped to 16.9% and his 600 PA pace was 21 homers. The issue in Adams’ profile is his batting average. Adams hit .231 this season, .227 in 2024, and .233 the year before that. The ironic part is that his hit tool is what lands him in this category. Adams’ batted ball profile is as consistent as they come. He has a knack for hitting line drives, a stat that has been consistently above 20% since entering pro ball. Adams keeps the ball off the ground, drives the ball into the gaps, and has a great feel for getting to his pull side. Adams also has great contact skills and plate discipline. His walk rate last season was 16.5%, and he made contact 78.6% of the time.
Adams is underrated because his batting average has never supported his excellent underlying metrics. The puzzling part is that Adams has run below-average BABIPs throughout his career. His .267 BABIP last season does not match his profile and is a stat that should see better luck in 2026. As a corner infielder, Adams even has some stolen base upside, as evidenced by the high totals in his brief minor league career. Although Adams does not profile to be a league-winning prospect, he has significant upside and dynasty appeal. His value is boosted further in OBP leagues thanks to his strong walk rate. He is a strong player to target this off-season.
Deniel Ortiz – STL
Is the dynasty community in denial over Deniel? Sorry, I could not resist. Deniel Ortiz is a name that is not being talked about enough. Drafted by the Cardinals in the 16th round back in 2024, Ortiz put together a fantastic first season with the organization. The right-handed corner infielder split his season between Low and High-A. In 107 games, Ortiz hit .300 with 13 home runs and 39 stolen bases. He walked 14.9% of the time and finished the season with a 152 wRC+. Despite his excellent first season, Ortiz is flying completely under the radar. This should change in 2026, and it would make sense for dynasty managers to get in on him now.
Although Ortiz stole 39 bases last season, speed does not project to be his calling card. Ortiz could steal 10-15 bases in a season, but he has the profile and build of your typical corner infielder. Even if his speed slows down, his offense should more than make up for it. Featuring a big leg kick, Ortiz has quick hands that produce plenty of power. His power really seemed to come along as the season moved along. After a slow first two months, Ortiz hit 11 home runs from June forward. During that time, he slashed .325/.434/.520. His strikeout rate from that point forward was down significantly to 22.4% which bodes well for his hit tool. Ortiz posted a .194 ISO, and his 600 PA home run pace was 22 homers.
His strikeout rate showing improvement is a great sign. The speed is average, and the power is coming on strong, but the continued development of his hit tool is key. The good thing is that Ortiz already has a great batted ball distribution. Ortiz posted a 29.7% line drive rate last year. While his power plays up to his pull side, he also showed a willingness to use the whole field, which fueled his .402 BABIP. Even when (not if) his BABIP experiences some regression, his batted ball distribution should result in solid batting averages moving forward. Ortiz is a prospect flying completely under the radar (he is not even assessed by FanGraphs). This is a perfect deep league sleeper to pick up and take a shot on this off-season. If his success continues, Ortiz could be a fast riser in 2026.
Nathan Flewelling– TBR
Another prospect that nobody is talking about! Nathan Flewelling was drafted in the third round by Tampa in the 2024 draft. The transition from amateur baseball to professional baseball is extremely difficult for any position, but especially for catchers. This is amplified for catchers coming straight from high school. Learning how to truly call a game, play the position, and perform offensively is a daunting task. In his first season, Flewelling was up to the challenge. Flewelling appeared in 107 games for Tampa, mostly in Low-A (his final five games were in High-A). In those, Flewelling caught in 78 of them and finished with a 125 wRC+.
Flewelling’s offensive numbers do not jump off the screen. His high wRC+ is inflated by a high 20.4% walk rate. Meanwhile, his batting average was just .230 with six home runs and nine stolen bases. Thus, the lack of intrigue from the dynasty community. However, there is more here than meets the eye. Swinging from the left side, Flewelling’s approach at the plate is mature and consistent. There is not a lot of movement outside of a small leg kick as his quiet hands glide through the zone. He has an excellent understanding of the strike zone, and his high strikeout rate is more a product of over-patience than a poor hit tool. He posted a 70.1% contact rate last season and showed a knack for hitting line drives at a high rate (which landed him in this article).
Flewelling’s numbers also improved as the season moved along. From July 22 forward, Flewelling slashed .288/.456/.458 with four home runs. His 600 PA pace for homers from July 25 forward was 16. While 16 is nothing special, the steady improvements from a high school catching prospect is extremely encouraging for his future outlook. He has plus power projection and a swing path primed for success. He is a deep-league name to pay attention to in 2026.
