Rice Guys Finish First
Ben Rice’s final season with catcher eligibility could not have gone better. Rice led off the game with his 40th homer of the season, surpassing his manager’s preseason prediction on the first pitch of the game. He didn’t stop there, though, adding home run number 41 in the 4th inning. He finished the game with a 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB line that leaves his season line an even 50% better than league average. Rice’s homers weren’t mammoth blasts, leaving the bat at 101.1 and 108.4 mph, but they don’t need to be with the Yankee Stadium right-field porch. Rice added a soft line drive for a single in the 8th, giving him a season line of .263/.362/.537.
Rice has been the Yankees’ best player this season, shouldering a heavy burden with the extended absences of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. What might be underappreciated, though, is that Rice’s step forward at the plate has made him a better hitter than Judge this year on a per-plate-appearance rate. Rice’s bat speed is only a tiny bit better than average, but he squares the ball up more consistently than you would expect given his bat speed. Squared-up rate and bat speed generally have a negative relationship, with the positive outliers being guys who consistently generate more power than you’d expect for their bat speed, like Mookie Betts and Alex Bregman. Rice isn’t quite as much of an outlier as those two, but his ability to consistently get the most out of his bat speed goes a long way to explaining his power output. Rice’s plate discipline has taken a minor step back this year, but he still has an 82nd percentile chase rate. With the smaller, ABS-influenced strike zone causing pitchers to throw more balls this year, plus the regular absence of threats behind him in the lineup, Rice is seeing fewer strikes than in the past and walking at a career-high clip. Sure, you’ll miss him being eligible at catcher next season, but this version of Rice will still be in high demand for your first base spot.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday…
Ryan McMahon (NYY): 2-4, HR, R, 5 RBI.
McMahon put the game out of reach for the Yankees, turning a 3-0 lead over the Rays into a 7-0 lead in the third inning with one swing. McMahon’s slam was hit at 109.1 mph, but only narrowly evaded a leaping Jonny DeLuca thanks to a 40-degree launch angle that landed the ball in the first couple rows of the right-field bleachers. McMahon’s playing a bit less than a full large-side platoon role, and both the plate approach and the results have taken a step back this year.
Henry Bolte (ATH): 4-5, 2 2B, 2 R, RBI.
If you have the opportunity, Bolte should be starting for you in the last couple of games of the season. He absolutely rakes in West Sacramento, with last night’s game raising his home line to .322/.396/.460. He absolutely torched a 4th-inning line drive to left field at 115.1 mph, while the rest of his batted balls had more pedestrian measurables. Bolte has outstanding bat speed and 100th percentile sprint speed, which have led him to an exceptionally high .382 BABIP this season. That’s somehow the worst BABIP he’s managed at any level of professional baseball, although I’m still skeptical he’ll maintain that rate going forward on general principle. There are some warts in the rest of the profile, but West Sacramento remains one of the best places to hit, so I’d be in going forward, as a home streamer at the very least.
Juan Soto (NYM): 1-2, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB.
After a third-inning bomb to right-center that traveled an estimated 429 feet, the Rangers decided that they didn’t want to play anymore. Soto got the 2001 Bonds treatment, with three intentional walks to end the game. The score was close for all of the walks, and the Rangers are tied with the Astros for the last playoff spot that’s in contention, so they surely thought this would be the best way to win the game. They got away with it in the 5th and 7th innings, with Bo Bichette grounding out and flying out to end those innings, but it came back to bite them on the third try, with Bichette drawing a walk before…
Brett Baty (NYM): 1-1, HR, R, 4 RBI.
…Baty pinch-hit for Mark Vientos and crushed a grand slam to deep right. Baty’s lone opportunity left the bat at 110.2 mph, a middle-middle fastball that left in a hurry. He’s hitting a disappointing .238/.313/.377 for the season, but he should be eligible at every offensive position except shortstop and catcher next year.
Yainer Diaz (HOU): 2-5, 3B, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Diaz has been on a tear to end the season. Last night’s game raised his season line to .282/.312/.460, thanks to a second-half line of .317/.349/.509. Diaz’s 14th homer of the season came on a low-and-in splitter from George Kirby that looked more appetizing in real time than the plot of its location on a strike zone overlay. Diaz’s season has mostly been a return to his solid 2024 form, though missed time has made his counting stats look much worse.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL): 2-3, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
The return of CES continues! In the first inning, Encarnacion-Strand lined a single to left to bring home Pete Alonso and Coby Mayo, before coming around to score on a Colton Cowser double. Cowser would be one of two baserunners the Orioles stranded on the night, which sounds like they were crushing homers left and right, but actually means they only had 6 hits+walks+HBPs. As a result, Encarnacion-Strand only had two more opportunities at the plate, one of which resulted in a solo homer, his 11th in 208 plate appearances.
Brice Turang (MIL): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Turang reached the 20-homer plateau last night in a win over a possible future playoff opponent, the Phillies. Somehow, in a game featuring a lot of players with exceptional batted-ball and bat speed metrics, Turang’s 108.4 mph homer in the first inning was the hardest-hit ball of the night. Turang has 4 games left to add a steal and finish with his first 20-20 season.
Maikel Garcia (KCR): 3-3, 2B, R, 3 RBI, BB.
Garcia was perfect at the plate last night, as the Royals denied the White Sox a chance to retake the lead in the AL Central race. Garcia has taken a step back in his plate approach this season, adding three percentage points of chase (though his chase rate remains strong) and losing three percentage points of zone swing rate. It’s the latter that’s part of a longer-term trend, as he’s now shed 8 percentage points of zone swing rate over the past two years. Last year was great, though, so maybe he can find a happy medium again, as his line sits at .263/.325/.378 through a half-season of at-bats.
Nasim Nuñez (WSN): 1-2, R, BB, 2 SB.
Nuñez created runs with his legs last night. He hit a bloop single to center in the 7th, then added steals 48 and 49 in the span of one at-bat, which ended with an RBI groundout by James Wood. Nuñez is currently leading Chandler Simpson for the MLB steals title, with a three-steal margin and four games to play. Nuñez’s future depends on his glove, which has been more good than great this year, especially after his move to shortstop. The other path to maintaining a starting role is trying to recover some of the .171 ISO he had in a small sample last season. He’s down to a .033 ISO this year, with only 3 barrels in 487 plate appearances.
Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Bluesky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
